A stretch this bad has NEVER happened...at least since last year...

[drza44]

I posted this in another thread, but after looking at it felt like it deserved it's own thread.  Because I keep reading people saying how bad the team looks this year, and how it's so different from last year when KG went down, when in reality...it's EERILY similar.  To wit, let's look at how the Celtics looked right before KG got hurt both last year and this year:

08-09: 10-game winning streak with KG, KG goes out for 2 games (both wins), he returns and they go 3-2 before he gets hurt and misses 13 games.

09-10: Won 12-of-13 with KG, KG misses a game (win), he returns limited (w/o Pierce) and they go 1 - 2; he gets hurt and misses the next 10 games.

Now, let's look at what happened in KG's absence:

08-09: Celtics lost 4 of 6, 5 of 9, and 6 of 11 before his return.

09-10: Celtics lost 4 of 6, 5 of 9, and 6 of 10 before his return.

Look familiar?  People acting like a stretch like this has never happened before really have short memories.  This EXACT stretch happened last year, from how the team was playing before KG went down to how the wheels fell of when he got hurt.

Where I'm praying that things are different is that last year, KG only returned in part-time duty for 4 games before shutting it down for the season.  From everything the Cs are releasing, this year he's supposed to be returning at full health.  If that happens and the health sticks, 18.  That is all.

[Redz]

I'm not so much concerned the losses as I am about how they're happening. 

[Mike-Dub]

I posted this in another thread, but after looking at it felt like it deserved it's own thread.  Because I keep reading people saying how bad the team looks this year, and how it's so different from last year when KG went down, when in reality...it's EERILY similar.  To wit, let's look at how the Celtics looked right before KG got hurt both last year and this year:

08-09: 10-game winning streak with KG, KG goes out for 2 games (both wins), he returns and they go 3-2 before he gets hurt and misses 13 games.

09-10: Won 12-of-13 with KG, KG misses a game (win), he returns limited (w/o Pierce) and they go 1 - 2; he gets hurt and misses the next 10 games.

Now, let's look at what happened in KG's absence:

08-09: Celtics lost 4 of 6, 5 of 9, and 6 of 11 before his return.

09-10: Celtics lost 4 of 6, 5 of 9, and 6 of 10 before his return.

Look familiar?  People acting like a stretch like this has never happened before really have short memories.  This EXACT stretch happened last year, from how the team was playing before KG went down to how the wheels fell of when he got hurt.

Where I'm praying that things are different is that last year, KG only returned in part-time duty for 4 games before shutting it down for the season.  From everything the Cs are releasing, this year he's supposed to be returning at full health.  If that happens and the health sticks, 18.  That is all.

Thank you drza I completely agree... And Redz they were losing the same way last year and now they have a better bench... The third quater has always been this teams most important quater... it is were they're games are won or lost.

[Roy Hobbs]

Well, a lot of posters had questions about the ability of last year's team to win a championship.  I'm not sure that the slump last year is going to dissuade people that the slump this year is no big deal, especially since we lost in the second round.

There was no guarantee last year that we would have won, even if KG was healthy.  I would like to think that they would have, but there's no real certainty of that.

[Chris]

I'm not so much concerned the losses as I am about how they're happening. 

They were happening the same way last year.  They were coming out flat, giving up leads, and generally playing like they had their heads up their rear.  It is the same way they played for much of the year with KG healthy, but without KG in their, suddenly the talent was not good enough to come away with wins when they played like that.

[crownsy]

Well, a lot of posters had questions about the ability of last year's team to win a championship.  I'm not sure that the slump last year is going to dissuade people that the slump this year is no big deal, especially since we lost in the second round.

There was no guarantee last year that we would have won, even if KG was healthy.  I would like to think that they would have, but there's no real certainty of that.

For me, there has been no surprise in this stretch, i'm actually more surprised they have the recorded they do.

This team has major concerns with Offensive and Defensive rebounding, as well as with teams now figuring out ways to exploit our defensive scheme that relies on overhelping.

A system that relies on that is very hard to execute when your key players are starting to age, and thus are less athletic, and cannot recover off switches.

The lack of rebounding, even with KG in the lineup, has been a problem all year, and it doesn't seem to be going away.

tough to be a great defensive team and hang your hat on that when your consistently out rebounded and thus out shot.

The injuries to KG, Paul, and Daniels have emphasized those two key issues, but even when they are in the lineup, they are still a concern.

[Redz]

I'm not so much concerned the losses as I am about how they're happening. 

They were happening the same way last year.  They were coming out flat, giving up leads, and generally playing like they had their heads up their rear.  It is the same way they played for much of the year with KG healthy, but without KG in their, suddenly the talent was not good enough to come away with wins when they played like that.

I guess my memory is shot (and that is a distinct possibility).  I don't remember it happening this consistently or for such a long period of time.

[crownsy]

I'm not so much concerned the losses as I am about how they're happening. 

They were happening the same way last year.  They were coming out flat, giving up leads, and generally playing like they had their heads up their rear.  It is the same way they played for much of the year with KG healthy, but without KG in their, suddenly the talent was not good enough to come away with wins when they played like that.

I guess my memory is shot (and that is a distinct possibility).  I don't remember it happening this consistently or for such a long period of time.

I remember it being a problem, but not this bad.

But to me, the main point is the way we are consistantly getting murdered on the boards. If you give teams 2-3 shots at the apple, I don't care how good you are defensivly, they will wear you down.

Championship defense is tough to play, and very physically demanding. Making yourself play it 2-3 times on multiple possessions throughout a game because you can't secure the defensive rebound leads to tired, tired defenders in the 4th.

[Chris]

I'm not so much concerned the losses as I am about how they're happening. 

They were happening the same way last year.  They were coming out flat, giving up leads, and generally playing like they had their heads up their rear.  It is the same way they played for much of the year with KG healthy, but without KG in their, suddenly the talent was not good enough to come away with wins when they played like that.

I guess my memory is shot (and that is a distinct possibility).  I don't remember it happening this consistently or for such a long period of time.

Starting at Christmas last year, when they lost 7 of 9, they looked absolutely awful for most of it.  It included a 12 point loss to the Knicks, 10 point loss to the Warriors, and an overtime debacle in Charlotte.  And all of this was when KG was still healthy.

[Roy Hobbs]

I'm not so much concerned the losses as I am about how they're happening. 

They were happening the same way last year.  They were coming out flat, giving up leads, and generally playing like they had their heads up their rear.  It is the same way they played for much of the year with KG healthy, but without KG in their, suddenly the talent was not good enough to come away with wins when they played like that.

I guess my memory is shot (and that is a distinct possibility).  I don't remember it happening this consistently or for such a long period of time.

Starting at Christmas last year, when they lost 7 of 9, they looked absolutely awful for most of it.  It included a 12 point loss to the Knicks, 10 point loss to the Warriors, and an overtime debacle in Charlotte.  And all of this was when KG was still healthy.

Right.  So why should we be encouraged again?

[Mike-Dub]

Well, a lot of posters had questions about the ability of last year's team to win a championship.  I'm not sure that the slump last year is going to dissuade people that the slump this year is no big deal, especially since we lost in the second round.

There was no guarantee last year that we would have won, even if KG was healthy... and they were last year too playing bad at the point after Christmas and in January with KG but then they had a 12 game winning streak that got snapped against the Lakers and KG got injured... I would like to think that they would have, but there's no real certainty of that.

Roy I think Chris answered your point somewhat... and they were last year too playing bad at the point after Christmas and in January with KG but then they had a 12 game winning streak that got snapped against the Lakers and KG got injured...  but your right we will never know if this team would have won it with KG healthy but you just gotta believe they can get through this rough stretch which I 100% do!

[Chris]

I'm not so much concerned the losses as I am about how they're happening. 

They were happening the same way last year.  They were coming out flat, giving up leads, and generally playing like they had their heads up their rear.  It is the same way they played for much of the year with KG healthy, but without KG in their, suddenly the talent was not good enough to come away with wins when they played like that.

I guess my memory is shot (and that is a distinct possibility).  I don't remember it happening this consistently or for such a long period of time.

Starting at Christmas last year, when they lost 7 of 9, they looked absolutely awful for most of it.  It included a 12 point loss to the Knicks, 10 point loss to the Warriors, and an overtime debacle in Charlotte.  And all of this was when KG was still healthy.

Right.  So why should we be encouraged again?

I was waiting for someone to call me on that.  I am not trying to give reason to be encouraged, just pointing out that we have seen this before.

And the thing is, despite the fact that KG was out last year, this team absolutely flipped the switch in the playoffs.  They were completely gassed, and were outmanned, but they played their hearts out, and nearly made it to the ECF's with Glen Davis as their starting PF (and their only backup bigs were Brian Scalabrine and Mikki Moore). 

So while the effort and more importantly the focus is not there right now, I think there is reason to believe that it will be there come April and May.  The question is, will KG be there?  And that, no one knows the answer to.

[vinnie]

Were they as bad a third quarter team last year as this year? I don't think so, but don't ahve any stats to back that up. I know that this year, they have stunk out the joint in a number of third quarters.

[Chris]

Were they as bad a third quarter team last year as this year? I don't think so, but don't ahve any stats to back that up. I know that this year, they have stunk out the joint in a number of third quarters.

Not sure.  I think last year they were worst in the first quarter.  Generally they didn't wake up until near the end of the first half.

[Who]

Were they as bad a third quarter team last year as this year? I don't think so, but don't ahve any stats to back that up. I know that this year, they have stunk out the joint in a number of third quarters.

2009-10

This year's Celtics team stats by quarter for what's it worth

• First Quarter -- 25.5 points scored versus 23.6 points conceded. A differential of +1.9 points.
  
• Second Quarter -- 25.9 points scored versus 22.2 points conceded. A differential of +3.7 points.
• Third Quarter -- 24.8 points scored versus 24.5 points conceded. A differential of +0.3 points.
• Fourth Quarter -- 23.5 points scored versus 23.3 points conceded. A differential of +0.2 points.

2008-09

Last year's Celtics team stats by quarter for what's it worth

• First Quarter -- 25.0 points scored versus 23.0 points conceded. A differential of +2.0 points.
• Second Quarter -- 24.9 points scored versus 23.3 points conceded. A differential of +1.6 points.
• Third Quarter -- 25.0 points scored versus 22.6 points conceded. A differential of +2.4 points.
• Fourth Quarter -- 24.4 points scored versus 24.2 points conceded. A differential of +0.2 points.

Upon closer inspection, some of those stats looked dodgy. I erased them

2007-08

The Championship season

• First Quarter -- 24.6 points scored versus 22.4 points conceded. A differential of +2.2 points.
  
• Second Quarter -- 25.3 points scored versus 22.1 points conceded. A differential of +3.2 points.
• Third Quarter -- 25.1 points scored versus 21.9 points conceded. A differential of +3.2 points.
• Fourth Quarter -- 23.6 points scored versus 23.1 points conceded. A differential of +0.5 points.