John lackey takes physical in Boston: deal may be imminent!

[Tr1boy]

Nobody was going to pay lackey 80 plus million and the redsox did blindly.

The Angels offered him 75 million or around that so yes, someone indeed WAS going to give him that money.

Also who did they sign last season? I remember Smoltz/Penny/Rocco, not exactly going all out after they lost out on Texiera.

As for Felix, why give up Buchholz/Kelly/Westmoreland/Kalish for him when the offense still wouldnt be good enough to hit in the playoffs? Because they signed Lackey they get a legit #2 or 3 starter and still have the prospects to trade for a big bat.

well angels and redsox both need to get their eyes checked then. This guy is worth 12 million a season max. Look at his stats , most of his career he is hovering around era 3.5 +. In addition last season the angels made the playoffs yet he looked like he had a non playoffs playing on a so so team season at 11-8.

Furthermore workhorse or not he can't be dependent to take you on his back and give you a 2-1 win. He can hang you in there like any third stringer , and you pay a third string guy 15 million north?

He will be 15-10 next season (at best) and to me that is not worth 17 million per year. Got punk'ed by the market or stupidity or both

 

[Big_Matt34]

well angels and redsox both need to get their eyes checked then.

Clearly you know more than two of the best front offices in baseball, the Yankees were also in on Lackey, and you can bet they were willing to give 70+ million for him. Thats what the market is for pitchers comparable to Lackey, like Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, both of whom Lackey had a better ERA/WHIP/ERA+ then last year. Is Lackey a 17 million a year pitcher? No, but thats what the market is and its worth overpaying a bit to be able to hold onto your prospects and use them for a big bat, which is what they need most.

Win-loss is a weak stat that doesnt mean nearly as much as some people think. You complain about his ERA consistently being around 3.50 or up a bit, well last year there were only 6 pitchers in the AL with a ERA under 3.50, and 8 with a ERA under 3.70. So that tells you that a ERA around 3.50-3.80 is basically what most #2 pitchers have, only the best of the best pitchers in the AL have ERA's in the low 3's or under nowadays.

[Chris]

Nobody was going to pay lackey 80 plus million and the redsox did blindly.

The Angels offered him 75 million or around that so yes, someone indeed WAS going to give him that money.

Also who did they sign last season? I remember Smoltz/Penny/Rocco, not exactly going all out after they lost out on Texiera.

As for Felix, why give up Buchholz/Kelly/Westmoreland/Kalish for him when the offense still wouldnt be good enough to hit in the playoffs? Because they signed Lackey they get a legit #2 or 3 starter and still have the prospects to trade for a big bat.

well angels and redsox both need to get their eyes checked then. This guy is worth 12 million a season max. Look at his stats , most of his career he is hovering around era 3.5 +. In addition last season the angels made the playoffs yet he looked like he had a non playoffs playing on a so so team season at 11-8.

Furthermore workhorse or not he can't be dependent to take you on his back and give you a 2-1 win. He can hang you in there like any third stringer , and you pay a third string guy 15 million north?

He will be 15-10 next season (at best) and to me that is not worth 17 million per year. Got punk'ed by the market or stupidity or both

 

The problem is, that is what it costs to get a pitcher on Lackey's pedigree without giving up prospects.  

Lackey is one of the top 20-30 starters in the league, if not higher.  And you simply cannot get guys like that without paying a premium in either prospects or cash (or Both).  

This IS the market.  

Sure, the Sox could trade for a better pitcher like Halladay, but it would cost them more money, plus significant prospects.  

The Sox prize their prospects, and also need to keep them if they want to get an elite bat.  So this is the best way to improve their rotation while still keeping that option open.  Sure, it may cost them a premium, but if they can afford to pay $9 million for Mike Lowell to play for Texas, then they can afford to overpay Lackey a few million a year to be one of the best #3 starters in the league.

[nickagneta]

Glad to see the Sox spending some money and doing it in the right way. If they are going to spend $15-$17 million on a player this off season, they are right in giving it to Lackey and not Bay or Holliday. Since 2005 Lackey has been 69-38 while averaging 198 innings, 168 strikeouts, and just 58 walks per year with an ERA of 3.50.

In the American League, those are some pretty dominant numbers that, if he had been on a team that had some good offense all those years, (the Angels finished 11th, 18th, 6th, 16th and 2nd in those years), might have had even better numbers. With the Red Sox defense and bullpen and offense(assuming the Sox are scoring at their usual top 4 best teams in the league), Lackey could easily be putting up number of 18-9 with a 3.5 ERA and 200 IP and 190 Ks with 60 BBs.

I love this signing. If the Sox could use Buchholz, Kelly and a couple of lower level prospects to land Gonzalez or Cabrera, then I would sign Gabe Kapler to platoon in left with Hermida and then wait for next year to offer the farm to Carl Crawford.

[Donoghus]

I agree that I'm much happier (and more open) to the Sox spending this type of money on a SP the likes of Lackey rather than tossing it towards Bay or Holliday. 

There's a premium to be paid for quality starting pitching and the fact that Lackey is not being asked to be the anchor of this staff makes it look pretty good in my eyes. 

[Tr1boy]

I know where you guys are coming from but overpaying is overpaying you know?

Jon Lester and Beckett are worth more than lackey but in reality they are worth 17 million a season (even 3 years from now). What you are doing just like what you did with JD drew is overpay guys in turn when you want to sign guys really worth that figure you can't sign them(because they get jealous, greedy etc). No doubt jason bay has justice that he deserves at least 1 more million than jd drew. (with all of his injuries)

Yet if we didn't have drew for example i don't think he blinks twice taking that 5 year offer.

Lastly do the redsox really need another starter? Even with bucholz traded we would have a pretty solid rotation. Dice k had one bad injury season but he is still a gamer. Also Tazawa could have been an easy callup this year as he keeps getting better.

Ponder lastly on what a signing to a third string guy at this contract does. (especially if he performs substandard). You just don't have the money then you need when a legit super start comes to the market or one of your guys as pointed before like lester wants 18 million per season and he can't be given that. The necessasity vs absolute need vs future all are important.

[nickagneta]

Nobody was going to pay lackey 80 plus million and the redsox did blindly.

The Angels offered him 75 million or around that so yes, someone indeed WAS going to give him that money.

Also who did they sign last season? I remember Smoltz/Penny/Rocco, not exactly going all out after they lost out on Texiera.

As for Felix, why give up Buchholz/Kelly/Westmoreland/Kalish for him when the offense still wouldnt be good enough to hit in the playoffs? Because they signed Lackey they get a legit #2 or 3 starter and still have the prospects to trade for a big bat.

well angels and redsox both need to get their eyes checked then. This guy is worth 12 million a season max. Look at his stats , most of his career he is hovering around era 3.5 +. In addition last season the angels made the playoffs yet he looked like he had a non playoffs playing on a so so team season at 11-8.

Furthermore workhorse or not he can't be dependent to take you on his back and give you a 2-1 win. He can hang you in there like any third stringer , and you pay a third string guy 15 million north?

He will be 15-10 next season (at best) and to me that is not worth 17 million per year. Got punk'ed by the market or stupidity or both

 

Over the last 5 years the average ERA in the American league has hovered right around 4.50. Over that time Lackey's ERA is has been 3.50 while he has average 30 starts per year and 6 2/3 innings per start. As a starting pitcher in the American League with a DH, those are dominant numbers. The only thing missing from his resume has been wins and given how mediocre the Angels offense has been over those 5 years, not accruing more wins is easily explainable.  

[Roy Hobbs]

One side effect of this deal is that it makes the Scutaro deal look better.  Rather than giving up a #1 pick for him, now we'll be giving up a #2, instead.  That's much more reasonable.

Another thing that is does, of course, is weaken the Angels, which is always a good thing.

[nickagneta]

I know where you guys are coming from but overpaying is overpaying you know?

Jon Lester and Beckett are worth more than lackey but in reality they are worth 17 million a season (even 3 years from now). What you are doing just like what you did with JD drew is overpay guys in turn when you want to sign guys really worth that figure you can't sign them(because they get jealous, greedy etc). No doubt jason bay has justice that he deserves at least 1 more million than jd drew. (with all of his injuries)

Yet if we didn't have drew for example i don't think he blinks twice taking that 5 year offer.

Lastly do the redsox really need another starter? Even with bucholz traded we would have a pretty solid rotation. Dice k had one bad injury season but he is still a gamer. Also Tazawa could have been an easy callup this year as he keeps getting better.

Ponder lastly on what a signing to a third string guy at this contract does. (especially if he performs substandard). You just don't have the money then you need when a legit super start comes to the market or one of your guys as pointed before like lester wants 18 million per season and he can't be given that. The necessasity vs absolute need vs future all are important.

1.) $17 million is the market for a free agent starting pitcher the quality of John Lackey. You mention Beckett and Lester but neither has ever hit free agency. You need to compare Lackey to Burnett and when looked at in that vein, it's a great signing.

2.) A team can never have too much quality starting pitching. Ever. period. End of story. A rotation of Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Dice K and either Buchholz or Wakefield or someone else is excellent, especially with the defense they have behind them.

3.) You obviously are not paying attention if you think Lackey is a number 3, third string pitcher. Not everybody is the Yankees with Andy Pettitte or Detroit with Bonderman or the Sox with DiceK or the Phillies with Pedro as a #3 starting pitcher. These guys are a more typical example of #3 starting pitchers:

Gavin Floyd
Carl Pavano
Aaron Cook
Kyle Lohse
Hiroki Kuroda
Scott Feldman
John Maine
Dave Bush
Luke Horchevar

I mean are you really trying to say that Lackey belongs lumped in with those guys? Lackey is a #1 starter on about 10-12 teams in this league and an easy #2 starter on about another 15-18 others.

[twistedrico]

nine career regular-season starts at Fenway Park, he is 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA.

[Brickowski]

I heard it was a done deal: 5 years at 17 million per year.  My guess is that they will now use Buchholz to acquire a bat.

[Roy Hobbs]

nine career regular-season starts at Fenway Park, he is 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA.

Well, part of that is the small sample size, and part of it is that he was facing an excellent Sox offense. 

[Brickowski]

They other big news is that Halladay is going to the Phillies, Cliff Lee to Seattle and prospects from Seattle to Toronto.

Apparently Lee did not want to sign an extension in Philadelphia, while Halladay wanted to play there.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/14/phillies.halladay.lee/index.html?eref=BrkNews

[Roy Hobbs]

They other big news is that Halladay is going to the Phillies, Cliff Lee to Seattle and propspects from Seattle to Toronto.

Apparently Lee did not want to sign an extension in Philadelphia, while Halladay wanted to play there.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/14/phillies.halladay.lee/index.html?eref=BrkNews

It's just crazy what the pitching market is, with Lee asking for a deal around $23 million per season.  It makes $17 million look reasonable.

[yall hate]

They other big news is that Halladay is going to the Phillies, Cliff Lee to Seattle and propspects from Seattle to Toronto.

Apparently Lee did not want to sign an extension in Philadelphia, while Halladay wanted to play there.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/14/phillies.halladay.lee/index.html?eref=BrkNews

It's just crazy what the pitching market is, with Lee asking for a deal around $23 million per season.  It makes $17 million look reasonable.

I have no problem with the 17 mill for lackey, but I would much prefer to give lee the 23 (all things being equal...which they arent)