Peter May article on Ray Allen, Reasons he will be here beyond this year.

[nickagneta]

I saw reference to this article on Ray Allen done by Peter May(one of my favs) on Yahoo.com. Sorry, FL, I'm sure you linked it on the frontpage somewhere but I missed it. Some very interesting stuff.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ys-allenceltics121009&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

”He is still a terrific player,” Rivers said. ”I think he’ll get better as the season goes along, as he always does. I really anticipate us finding a way to keep him. Listen, we do not want to break this up. If we do what we want to do and win it, we’ll find a way to keep him. I honestly believe that.”

Allen’s contract is up at the end of the season. But you don’t see his name on many ”must-have” or ”marquee” lists of the 2010 free agent class. He’ll be 35 in July, so it’s hard to envision a situation where a team with loads of cap room knocks on his door with duffel bags full of Benjamins at 12:01 a.m. next July 1.

More likely is a deal along the lines of what Jason Kidd(notes) did in Dallas (three years, $25 million) or Steve Nash(notes) did in Phoenix (two years, $22 million), which at least captures the timeline, as Allen said he has every intention of playing two to three more seasons.

Rivers wants him to stick around. Danny Ainge, who traded for Allen, wants him to stick around. His teammates want him to stick around. And Allen himself wants to stick around.

There’s also an added incentive for Allen to try and work something out with the Celtics, beyond the basketball. His son, Walker, was diagnosed with juvenile diabetes during the 2008 NBA Finals and is treated at a world-class facility in Boston. Allen knows how critical that is; Walker had to be hospitalized just before a recent Celtics road trip, resulting in Allen nearly missing the Nov. 29 game in Miami.

”My family is comfortable here,” Allen said. ”My son with the diabetes, that’s important. Obviously, I want to be here.”

[Drucci]

Glad to see that Danny wants Ray to stay. It was the biggest concern for me... sure it can change between now and this summer but it's unlikely.

Not surprised that Doc and his teammates want Ray to stay, he is the perfect teammate and a class act, combined with an excellent player with a perfect work ethic. I want to see Ray retire as a Celtic and get his jersey retired in Boston.

[Chris]

Glad to see that Danny wants Ray to stay. It was the biggest concern for me... sure it can change between now and this summer but it's unlikely.

Not surprised that Doc and his teammates want Ray to stay, he is the perfect teammate and a class act, combined with an excellent player with a perfect work ethic. I want to see Ray retire as a Celtic and get his jersey retired in Boston.

Of course Danny wants Ray to say.  However, what is going to make it happen or not is the price.  If Ray is willing to stay for reasonable money (and years), then I can't see Danny letting him go.

My guess is Danny has a 2 year deal in mind, and does not want to go beyond that.  And I don't see him going much more than $10 million per year...and likely is looking more in the 7-9 range.  Who knows if Ray would be OK with that.

[Amonkey]

I think the son brings up a good point.  I don't think Allen will want to leave due to money situation since I am sure he has made some money, and championship factor is not necessarily a factor since he already won one and the Celtics will still be in contention next season (hopefully).  So the decision really comes to family and having some of the best medical teams of the country really becomes a factor.

Also, considering that (I am assuming) Allen is a widely respected guy within the organization and all around a classy guy, I think the league might think a little harder in trading him away.  It would be a DB move by the organization to move him to some place where there is no medical assistance to his son like there is here (although Canada might have a better health care system- I kid!).

[boscel33]

Is there a chance, that seeing as he has mad almost $140 million in his career (according to basketball reference) that he signs a low end contract to help the C's on the cap side?

[Hoops]

Is there a chance, that seeing as he has mad almost $140 million in his career (according to basketball reference) that he signs a low end contract to help the C's on the cap side?

Something as low as $14 million over two years is still a boat-load of money. If anyone would be willing to check his ego at the door at this stage, it would be Ray Allen. Also, given that he seems like a smart guy and a family man, he's probably been smart with his career earnings and is probably at a point where he doesn't NEED the money. In other words, I don't think he'd rock the boat for a few more million. But that's easy for me to say - I wouldn't fault him if he drove a hard bargain...

[slamtheking]

It makes sense for the C's to keep Ray, both from a lockerroom quality and a talent perspective.

His teammates and coaches sing his praises constantly and he's become involved with the community so from the lockerroom presense perspective, he's a keeper.

From a talent perspective, he's the best player the C's can get to start at SG after this year---barring a trade involving him this year.  The C's won't have the money to go after better players next year so the other alternatives are:

• Trade: this would require moving Ray, Rondo and/or Perk to get someone better than Ray that's still under contract for a few year.  The expiring deals aren't sufficient to accomplish this.  This isn't happening.
  
• Current Roster: no one already on this roster is better than Ray at playing SG.  There's no one to take his place that's already on the roster.
  
  • Draft: The C's will be picking very late.  They'll be lucky to land a role player that might contribute in a year or two, nevermind a starting-caliber SG.  not happening.
    
  Ray's the only realistic left.  No reason to anticipate a nasty or pricey negotiation.  figure about 7-9 mill per year for 2-3 years.

[Fan from VT]

I'd strongly lean toward 2 years. Then Very Strongly lean toward 1 year for pierce the following off season, so that we could potentially have just Rondo and Perk under contract heading into the 2012/1013 offseason as Ray, Pierce, KG all come off the books at the same time at the ages of 36, 34, 36 respectively at the time of the offseason. (Ray turning 37 that July). That's the offseason that Carmelo could be a free agent if he does not opt out of his contract early, and Durant would be a UFA if he wanted to test the unrestricted waters when it turns out Westbrook's a tweener, Harden's a disappointment, and Jeff Green is overrated.

[Who]

I was more concerned about Ray Allen getting a sizable offer from another team prior to the summer. Since then, half the teams that figured to have cap space (18 teams down to 9) have traded away their cap flexibility (particularly contenders like the Cavs, Mavs and Spurs). Resulting in less competition in the market place and most of those teams should end up fighting it out for the superior talents.

There's four teams with $12+ million in cap space -- NJ, Miami, NY and Chicago (if Salmons opts out) -- I don't think any of those teams will be a threat to sign Ray Allen. They're all young teams looking to add an All-Star to MVP caliber player to build around.

That leaves five other teams -- Oklahoma, Minnesota, Houston, Clippers and Sacramento -- I can't see Sacramento, Minny or Oklahoma making a run at Ray Allen due to age/youth of roster + present SG. I also think it's highly unlikely that the Clippers try to sign Ray Allen but still somewhat possible.

Houston is the only team with cap space that I can see having interest in giving Ray Allen a substantial contract. And they are very likely to use all their cap space to keep their own players (Hayes, Landry, Dorsey - team options/non guaranteed) + re-signing their own talent (Scola, Lowry). Once they've done that they'll only be left with their MLE.

To conclude, I don't see any threats out there in free agency. I don't think any of the teams who have cap space are going to be interested in a player like Ray Allen (except maybe Clippers and that's a long shot). Consequently, I think Ray Allen is going to be reduced to MLE offers in free agency. The market place just isn't there for him.

Which in turn means the Celtics should be able to sign Ray Allen on a cheaper contract. Just above the MLE (say $7 million per annum) but not nearing the $9-10 million mark. 

[slamtheking]

I was more concerned about Ray Allen getting a sizable offer from another team prior to the summer. Since then, half the teams that figured to have cap space (18 teams down to 9) have traded away their cap flexibility (particularly contenders like the Cavs, Mavs and Spurs). Resulting in less competition in the market place and most of those teams should end up fighting it out for the superior talents.

There's four teams with $12+ million in cap space -- NJ, Miami, NY and Chicago (if Salmons opts out) -- I don't think any of those teams will be a threat to sign Ray Allen. They're all young teams looking to add an All-Star to MVP caliber player to build around.

That leaves five other teams -- Oklahoma, Minnesota, Houston, Clippers and Sacramento -- I can't see Sacramento, Minny or Oklahoma making a run at Ray Allen due to age/youth of roster + present SG. I also think it's highly unlikely that the Clippers try to sign Ray Allen but still somewhat possible.

Houston is the only team with cap space that I can see having interest in giving Ray Allen a substantial contract. And they are very likely to use all their cap space to keep their own players (Hayes, Landry, Dorsey - team options/non guaranteed) + re-signing their own talent (Scola, Lowry). Once they've done that they'll only be left with their MLE.

To conclude, I don't see any threats out there in free agency. I don't think any of the teams who have cap space are going to be interested in a player like Ray Allen (except maybe Clippers and that's a long shot). Consequently, I think Ray Allen is going to be reduced to MLE offers in free agency. The market place just isn't there for him.

Which in turn means the Celtics should be able to sign Ray Allen on a cheaper contract. Just above the MLE (say $7 million per annum) but not nearing the $9-10 million mark. 

[/b]
I don't think Danny will turn Ray's contract into a BBD-like affair.  I don't see him waiting for Ray's value to be established on the open market just to offer him as little as possible.  I think Danny will make a reasonable offer to Ray that's around 8 mill per year ($1 mill higher or lower).  I do think that Danny will wait to see who's available for the MLE before making a move with Ray.  (Personally I foresee Daniels and Williams splitting the MLE next year but that's without knowing how BBD looks this year or if Marquis stays healthy enough to be worth bringing back next year)

[boscel33]

what are the chances that both pp and ra take a discount, say 3 years at 7 per for pp and 2 at 7 per for ra.  this should easily push them under the cap to make a splash on a free agent.  this would also allow them to add more bling to the fingers.

[nickagneta]

what are the chances that both pp and ra take a discount, say 3 years at 7 per for pp and 2 at 7 per for ra.  this should easily push them under the cap to make a splash on a free agent.  this would also allow them to add more bling to the fingers.

If Pierce were top opt out, both Pierce and Allen were to sign 2 year $7 million per contracts, and the Celtics were to release Walker and Giddens and renounce every other free agent of their's, they are still at about $56.9 million in salary with a million dollar cap hold on their first round pick included.

Rondo 9 million
Pierce 7 million
Allen 7 million
Garnett 18.8 million
Wallace 6.3 million
Davis 3 million
Perkins 4.9 million
1st round pick 1 million

8 player signed and still over the cap.

Ray and Pierce taking major pay cuts only makes them poorer and the ownership group richer. It doesn't open cap space for free agnets, unfortunately.

[Jon]

what are the chances that both pp and ra take a discount, say 3 years at 7 per for pp and 2 at 7 per for ra.  this should easily push them under the cap to make a splash on a free agent.  this would also allow them to add more bling to the fingers.

If Pierce were top opt out, both Pierce and Allen were to sign 2 year $7 million per contracts, and the Celtics were to release Walker and Giddens and renounce every other free agent of their's, they are still at about $56.9 million in salary with a million dollar cap hold on their first round pick included.

Rondo 9 million
Pierce 7 million
Allen 7 million
Garnett 18.8 million
Wallace 6.3 million
Davis 3 million
Perkins 4.9 million
1st round pick 1 million

8 player signed and still over the cap.

Ray and Pierce taking major pay cuts only makes them poorer and the ownership group richer. It doesn't open cap space for free agnets, unfortunately.

Yeah.  I was posting about to post "less than zero," but you pretty much summed it up Nick.  Even if it would've gotten them under the cap, I don't see either doing it, particularly Pierce.  I mean why should two player who brought a title to Boston sacrifice their money for a free agent who likely hasn't proven anything?  I know from a fan's standpoint the answer is easy: to win another title.  But players, particularly great players, are proud people.  I don't see it sitting well with two future Hall of Famers to take big paycuts so someone who has proven less than them can get a big pay day. 

[celticsclay]

I wish KG could rework his deal ala the NFL. That is really a crippling number to see there. I guess we can expect trade rumors to start for him next season on the blog.

[Fan from VT]

Some additional thoughts on contract length and consequences here:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=33584.msg634362;topicseen#new