I have considered everyone's points and I guess I just see it differently. This all comes down to whether or not the Twins think they can sign him. If they can get this done this off season, discussion is ended. I don't think they can afford it without a hometown discount. Maybe if they trade Morneau they can afford to pay Mauer $20M but I certainly can't sit here and accept that the Twins absolutely would rather trade Morneau or will be able to.
If the Twins do not agree to an extension this offseason and they go into next year more or less as is, then they still will likely be in the playoff hunt. Does a team in the playoff hunt trade their best player at the trade deadline? I don't see it going that way. Then if Mauer ends up on the Yankees (which he will) they get in line or a pick or two from the Yankees.
If they trade Mauer for V-Mart and Buchholz plus a prospect or 2, they are still in the playoff hunt next year. If they don't get Martinez, then they have to play their hot catching prospect who I am assuming isn't quite ready. In 2011, Martinez probably signs with the Yankees and the Twins start bringing up their prospects and Buchholz settles in as a #2 starter with a friendly contract.
This is all hypothetical so I can't say anything is absolutely this or absolutely that but it is fun to speculate about a scenario where the Red Sox could get Mauer.
I also don't think we have much likelihood of getting Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez. They each have a few years before the teams are up against the wall. Either would be an awesome acquisition though of course.
Gordon Edes is reporting today that the Sox are going hard after Halladay. Personally, if they are going to unload prospects for a pitcher, I would rather see them go after Hernandez. He's a little more dynamic. Halladay is the work horse.
maybe this is signaling that the Sox aren't planning to re-sign Beckett after this season. who knows...
Overall, I still think the hardest piece to acquire in MLB today is a feared hitter, so if we are going to trade a bunch of prospects I'd rather it be for a Mauer type.
Cabrera is interesting, but I'd need to know more about his off-field stuff. His personal stuff seems different than Manny's (in a bad way) but I'd need to know more to fully comment.
You have kind of said it all here...I am happy about the possible acquistion of Halladay and I think Toronto should be really happy, too, if they get Bucholz. Yeah, I would rather have Felix, but Halladay has never been anything, but awesome.
As for a dynamic power hitter, Cabrera could definitely be had and we wouldn't have to empty our farm system to get him. Again, someone like A. Gonzalez is a little more interesting, but he would definitely 'cost' more.
I also don't know why we wouldn't still keep Beckett. If anything, I could see us move Daisuke, but if we can re-sign Beckett at fair market value, I think we do it.
I'm starting to feel like the Sox are somewhat disappointed with Beckett - especially as the staff ace. I guess if the price is right, but I am now thinking a big contract extension is not where they are headed for Beckett.
As for Gonzalez and Cabrera, in only baseball terms, I'd rather Cabrera. I like that in addition to the power he also hits for average. There's really only a handful of players in the league that can do both and i think that is the combination that makes a hitter truly feared by opposing pitchers.
also, I like that Cabrera is a righty and has proven that he can hit AL pitching.
on baseball terms, especially if the talent we would have to give up is less for Cabrera I would go with him. The off field stuff would be the reason to look more seriously at Gonzalez.
by the way, I agree with you about Halladay. It's tough to argue with his resume.