If Rondo takes advantage of Nelson being out and plays the way he did in last night's third quarter than the Celtics win easily at home. If he doesn't I think it will be a close game.
This. IMHO it mostly depends on whether Rondo wants to play aggressive and take over the game. He needs to push the pace, attack the basket, and hawk the ball when the Magic bring it up the court. If he plays passive, focusing more on padding his assists and steals, I don't like the Celtics chances against Orlando.
The only other thing I would mention is rebounding and turnovers. The C's have to start being more focused as a whole if they want to be an elite team. Turnovers have always been a problem, and I think it is a byproduct of wanting to be so unselfish, which isn't necessarily bad. However, the rebounding woes and failing to block-out on the offensive glass is mind-boggling.