Were experts wrong about the talent level of the 2009 NBA Draft?

[nickagneta]

One of the great constants that was being said by experts around the league in regards to the NBA Draft class of 2009 is that it was one of the worst in a very long time. It was being considered by many to be the worst group of talent to enter the league since the 2000 NBA Draft. That draft had Kenyon Martin go number one and then had a lot of misses, wannabes and middle to end of the bench talent with a couple of okay players, like Hedo Turkoglu, Michael Redd and Mike Miller thrown in.

Talk to most pundits and it was widely regarded that the draft consisted of three levels of talent:

1.) Blake Griffin

2.) A group of 3-5 others, depending on who you talked to, that included: Hasheem Thabeet, Ricky Rubio, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans and James Harden

3.) Everyone else.

It really was considered a crap shoot after pick 6 or so with mock drafts having players range in being picked anywhere in a stretch of 20-35 positions depending on who's mock draft you read. Draft day came and sure enough, like most drafts, there were surprise players going high and those falling. But unlike most drafts there was a lot of these types of picks. It was a testament to the general uncertainty of the talent thought to be in this draft.

Now let's fast forward to today, November 11th, Veteran's Day, with about 10% of the regular NBA season complete. Is it just me or does this year's group of rookies seem to be pretty [dang] talented. Blake Griffin, before he was injured with a broken kneecap, looked to be the real deal future NBA superstar with a double-double pedigree waiting to happen. But there turns out to be more than just Griffin looking like they have star potential.

Brandon Jennings in Milwaukee, Tyreke Evans in Sacramento, Ty Lawson in Denver and Jonny Flynn in Minnesota all look to be the real thing when it comes to future star PGs. DuJuan Blair in San Antonio, Chase Buddinger in Houston, Wes Matthews in Utah, Taj Gibson in Chicago, Wayne Ellington in Minnesota, Jonas Jerebko, and Omar Casspri in Sacramento all appear to be big draft day bargains being picked late in the first round, in the second or not at all. And there is that group that all look to be very productive, maybe more so than most expected. Like James Harden, Terrence Williams, Stephen Curry, Jodie Meeks and a host of others.

Are there some that we don't know about or just aren't looking so hot? Sure, there are every draft. But to me, so far, I have to think that maybe, this draft class was very under rated before the draft and looks like it could have a lot of very productive and long time NBA players, some NBA All-Stars and a superstar or four.

[Donoghus]

Obviously the season is still very early but the talent displayed by this rookie class so far has definitely exceeded my expectations. 

A lot of these kids are already stepping up as starters or playing important roles off the bench. 

I tend to agree with the statement that this draft class wasn't very touted talent-wise but has been quite productive so far.

[Evantime34]

I completely agree. I believed that the class would be better than anticipated before the draft, unfortunately I have no documented proof of this so you'll have to take my word for it.
I really wanted us to pick Blair via the purchase of a pick, which might be evident on the draft thread (hopefully) and I think he's proving that he will end up being very good.

[Eja117]

I was thinking the exact same thing today.

I think there are some surprises all around. The top 3 picks (I think) are actually underwhelming so far.

I don't have much faith in Thabeet. Griffin wasn't tearing up the preseason before he broke his knee.  And Harden isn't doing much yet.

After that it's amazing.

When was the last time the 58th pick (Lester Hudson) looked so good?  When was the last time there seemed to be so many good pgs? I saw something on ESPN asking if this is the best pg class ever. And some of the backups look like decent backups like Daye and Jeff Teague and DeMarre Carroll.

Also I'm happy Hansbrough seems to be doing pretty well. He had a good summer and first game.

And Rubio hasn't even shown up yet

[indeedproceed]

Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson, Dajuan Blair and CHase Budinger would probably all have been picked earlier (far earlier in Budinger and Blair's cases)

Omar Cassipi looks good from what I've read.

[KCattheStripe]

Yes, because Wes Matthews wasn't picked at all.

[KungPoweChicken]

So you're telling me the experts can be wrong, since when? I think the knock on this draft, coming into it, was that Blake Griffin was the only star caliber player, but we are seeing that Evans, Flynn, and Jennings might get there. Oh yeah, and we can't close the door on that Rubio kid; he might just as well be a star too.

Granted, none of those guys are going to be Lebron, Wade, or Bosh, but they can all be potential all-stars in this league. In that respect, the so called experts were wrong. And this draft definitely seems deep in terms of role players coming in and contributing; I've been impressed in that regard, particularly with Caspi.

[Roy Hobbs]

Honestly, I still don't think the draft is that good.  I mean, it's not like people were predicting that there would be 25 busts in the draft.  Rather, they were saying that there would be few stars.  So far, I think that's playing out.

Two guys have exceeded my expectations:  Jennings and Flynn.  Other than that, you have:

1. Blake Griffin -- injured
2. Hasheem Thabeet -- he's a *long* way away
3. James Harden -- averaging less than 6.0 pts/game
4. Tyreke Evans - nice stats, but sub-40% shooting
5. Ricky Rubio - overseas
6. Flynn -- looks great
7. Stephen Curry - 9.2 pts/game, and not much else
8. Jordan Hill - another guy a long ways away; averaging less than 5.0 pts/game
9. DeMar Derozan - Looks terrible; less than 5.0 pts/game
10. Brandon Jennings - looks great
11. Terrence Williams - 10.0 pts/game, but terrible FG%
12. Gerald Henderson - 3.3 pts/game


The list goes on.  Out of the entire draft class, six guys are averaging double digit points.  Of those six, two are below 40%.  Only one rookie is averaging more than 5.3 rebounds, and only one is averaging as many as 5.7 assists.

It's not a horrific class, but I see it fairly similar to 2006, rather than the better classes the last two years.

[KungPoweChicken]

Whoopsie Doodle, I meant to correct my post above this one, but I accidentally quoted myself, so now, without knowing how to just erase the whole post from every happening, I, instead, decided to erase the quote and write this.

[KCattheStripe]

Honestly, I still don't think the draft is that good.  I mean, it's not like people were predicting that there would be 25 busts in the draft.  Rather, they were saying that there would be few stars.  So far, I think that's playing out.

Two guys have exceeded my expectations:  Jennings and Flynn.  Other than that, you have:

1. Blake Griffin -- injured
2. Hasheem Thabeet -- he's a *long* way away
3. James Harden -- averaging less than 6.0 pts/game
4. Tyreke Evans - nice stats, but sub-40% shooting
5. Ricky Rubio - overseas
6. Flynn -- looks great
7. Stephen Curry - 9.2 pts/game, and not much else
8. Jordan Hill - another guy a long ways away; averaging less than 5.0 pts/game
9. DeMar Derozan - Looks terrible; less than 5.0 pts/game
10. Brandon Jennings - looks great
11. Terrence Williams - 10.0 pts/game, but terrible FG%
12. Gerald Henderson - 3.3 pts/game


The list goes on.  Out of the entire draft class, six guys are averaging double digit points.  Of those six, two are below 40%.  Only one rookie is averaging more than 5.3 rebounds, and only one is averaging as many as 5.7 assists.

It's not a horrific class, but I see it fairly similar to 2006, rather than the better classes the last two years.

Wes Matthews hasn't exceeded your expectations?

[Roy Hobbs]

Honestly, I still don't think the draft is that good.  I mean, it's not like people were predicting that there would be 25 busts in the draft.  Rather, they were saying that there would be few stars.  So far, I think that's playing out.

Two guys have exceeded my expectations:  Jennings and Flynn.  Other than that, you have:

1. Blake Griffin -- injured
2. Hasheem Thabeet -- he's a *long* way away
3. James Harden -- averaging less than 6.0 pts/game
4. Tyreke Evans - nice stats, but sub-40% shooting
5. Ricky Rubio - overseas
6. Flynn -- looks great
7. Stephen Curry - 9.2 pts/game, and not much else
8. Jordan Hill - another guy a long ways away; averaging less than 5.0 pts/game
9. DeMar Derozan - Looks terrible; less than 5.0 pts/game
10. Brandon Jennings - looks great
11. Terrence Williams - 10.0 pts/game, but terrible FG%
12. Gerald Henderson - 3.3 pts/game


The list goes on.  Out of the entire draft class, six guys are averaging double digit points.  Of those six, two are below 40%.  Only one rookie is averaging more than 5.3 rebounds, and only one is averaging as many as 5.7 assists.

It's not a horrific class, but I see it fairly similar to 2006, rather than the better classes the last two years.

Wes Matthews hasn't exceeded your expectations?

I was concentrating more on the star players; I didn't really know much about Mathews, despite your attempts to educate everyone.

I thought Blair and Budinger would both be solid contributors, and that's what they look  to be thus far.  I really wanted the Celtics to buy a pick and grab one of them.

Oh, and I guess Lester Hudson has exceeded expectations.  I didn't think he'd ever play in the NBA.

[PosImpos]

Roy is right.  This class isn't horrible, but so far there aren't any superstars.  So far nobody in this class has looked like a guy you could build a team around.

That said, more than a few have surprised and turned out to be solid players that can contribute right away.  DeJuan Blair, Budinger, Casspi and a few others have definitely shown that they ought to have been picked a lot earlier.

There are plenty of guys who are doing practically nothing though.  I still can't believe Thabeet was taken at #2.  The Grizzlies are really, really stupid (though we already knew that).

I think 3-4 years from now the vast majority of the players selected in this draft will no longer be in the league, or at least won't be getting any significant minutes.  There will be a few starters and more than a few solid role players.  But a lot of these guys aren't going to do much for the teams that drafted them.  That's true in every draft, but I think it's probably especially true with this one.  For every surprise so far, there are at least 3-4 other guys who have already been mostly forgotten.

[KungPoweChicken]

One guy I have been disappointed with thus far has been Harden; it's still early, but I expected more from him.

I think everyone but Memphis knew that Thabeet was a bust.

[PosImpos]

One guy I have been disappointed with thus far has been Harden; it's still early, but I expected more from him.

Yeah, he's on a team that doesn't really have a starter-quality SG and yet he's only getting a few minutes a game and scoring 6 pts in those minutes.  I've read that the issue is probably that he's too used to dominating the ball.  He's always been the number 1 guy.  Now he needs to play and contribute on a team where there are at least two other guys ahead of him in the pecking order.  It'll take time for him to get used to that.  But at the very least he projects to be a solid shooter, if nothing else.

[Amonkey]

Honestly, I still don't think the draft is that good.  I mean, it's not like people were predicting that there would be 25 busts in the draft.  Rather, they were saying that there would be few stars.  So far, I think that's playing out.

Two guys have exceeded my expectations:  Jennings and Flynn.  Other than that, you have:

1. Blake Griffin -- injured
2. Hasheem Thabeet -- he's a *long* way away
3. James Harden -- averaging less than 6.0 pts/game
4. Tyreke Evans - nice stats, but sub-40% shooting
5. Ricky Rubio - overseas
6. Flynn -- looks great
7. Stephen Curry - 9.2 pts/game, and not much else
8. Jordan Hill - another guy a long ways away; averaging less than 5.0 pts/game
9. DeMar Derozan - Looks terrible; less than 5.0 pts/game
10. Brandon Jennings - looks great
11. Terrence Williams - 10.0 pts/game, but terrible FG%
12. Gerald Henderson - 3.3 pts/game


The list goes on.  Out of the entire draft class, six guys are averaging double digit points.  Of those six, two are below 40%.  Only one rookie is averaging more than 5.3 rebounds, and only one is averaging as many as 5.7 assists.

It's not a horrific class, but I see it fairly similar to 2006, rather than the better classes the last two years.

I don't think we are talking about superstar numbers, especially since we are only in the beginning of the season.  I think it's more about what some of these guys have accomplished so far, like some rookie with 30 points, Jennings with almost a triple double, all these rookies starting and getting significant minutes and playing a role in crucial part of games.  I think this class has already shown some talent overall that has exceeded the expectations of many people.