Tony Allen got an extension, Rondo doesn't?! Are we nuts?

[BBS]

Being a GM is more about managing money than about managing talent.

Maybe so, but those are two really important parts of being a GM wouldn't you say.

[nickagneta]

I really see no advantage or incentive for the Celtics to extend him before the end of the month deadline unless it is at, what they consider to be, well below market price for him. There's just to many different variables at play here that make this a much smarter play for the team if they play a wait and see game. Consider these variables:

1.) Rondo's game - given how inconsistent he can look from game to game and series of game to series of games, is it really unreasonable to think he could have up and down years as well? If he has a down year but they still think he is the player they want, they could lock him up at a bargain price after a relatively not so great year.

2.) His maturity and difficulty level both on and off the court - no matter how he plays this year, Rondo's ego and ability to be coached could become almost toxic and the team could be afraid of this. Waiting another year and seeing who a stil VERY young player grows up some could go a long way to deciding if he is a guy they want to invest in.

3.) The economic climate - the salary cap is going to fall off this year, maybe a lot. By next summer we might be finding out that the cap for 2011-12 might be taking another big hit. Given that in two years the salary cap could be under $50 million, it might be a wiser move to trade Rondo next year for picks and youngsters to try to keep the team out of financial ruin while the lean times hit post Big Three

4.) The impending work stoppage - no one knows what the 2011 CBA is going to look like and it could be that teams will be tip toeing around giving out large extensions if the lockout/strike could change the way the cap, max salaries and othe stuff is handled.

5.) The free agent market of 2010 - a lot of team are betting big time that big time free agents will be available next summer. But if LeBron, Bosh, and Wade al resign with their teams there could be a lot of teams looking to fill the void with a player like Rondo and could mortgage their future for him. It might be wise to play it otu ans see what happens.


These are just five and my guess is Danny Ainge could come up with a lot more. I don't see they extending Rondo unless it's at a dirt cheap price. there's just too many really smart business reasons not to do it.

[Fafnir]

Nick you just listed the one big reason to try to sign him now:

5.) The free agent market of 2010 - a lot of team are betting big time that big time free agents will be available next summer. But if LeBron, Bosh, and Wade al resign with their teams there could be a lot of teams looking to fill the void with a player like Rondo and could mortgage their future for him. It might be wise to play it otu ans see what happens.

Such a team might not mortgage their future by giving up picks/players. They might just blow all of their cap space on him, thus forcing the Celtics to pay above market value for him. Or letting him walk for nothing.

I think the smart course is to have him play out the year. If he's worth the big deal, he needs to prove it with a better year than last.

[nickagneta]

Nick you just listed the one big reason to try to sign him now:

5.) The free agent market of 2010 - a lot of team are betting big time that big time free agents will be available next summer. But if LeBron, Bosh, and Wade al resign with their teams there could be a lot of teams looking to fill the void with a player like Rondo and could mortgage their future for him. It might be wise to play it otu ans see what happens.

Such a team might not mortgage their future by giving up picks/players. They might just blow all of their cap space on him, thus forcing the Celtics to pay above market value for him. Or letting him walk for nothing.

I think the smart course is to have him play out the year. If he's worth the big deal, he needs to prove it with a better year than last.

I don't see it that way. I see it that if he has a spectacular year but the C's don't want him back, for whatever reason, with a sign and trade Rondo could go to whatever team he wants and the C's could pick up a lot of value through picks and or players. Could Rondo take a max deal with someone, sure but then the C's could match and a year later move him. I just all those reasons, depending upon the scenario, are good reasons to wait. You looked at it one way, I looked at it another.

[BrickJames]

Being a GM is more about managing money than about managing talent.

Maybe so, but those are two really important parts of being a GM wouldn't you say.

Yes, I would.  But money is more important.

We are significantly over the cap now, and more directly, Rondo demands a lot more money, especially over time, than TA did.

Factor in that Ainge did not want to spend anything last summer precisely because he was targeting free agents of this summer's class (I posted in July 08 I believe that Rasheed Wallace was this year's target, and for that reason we did not target Posey - look at my post history if you don't believe it...), there were no alternatives at the time and we needed guards off the bench.

This is the only reason TA was signed then.  (To be fair, I also predicted TA would not be in the NBA after th '08 championship season).  If TA were up for renewal now, I think we all know how that would turn out.

[Fafnir]

Nick you just listed the one big reason to try to sign him now:

5.) The free agent market of 2010 - a lot of team are betting big time that big time free agents will be available next summer. But if LeBron, Bosh, and Wade al resign with their teams there could be a lot of teams looking to fill the void with a player like Rondo and could mortgage their future for him. It might be wise to play it otu ans see what happens.

Such a team might not mortgage their future by giving up picks/players. They might just blow all of their cap space on him, thus forcing the Celtics to pay above market value for him. Or letting him walk for nothing.

I think the smart course is to have him play out the year. If he's worth the big deal, he needs to prove it with a better year than last.

I don't see it that way. I see it that if he has a spectacular year but the C's don't want him back, for whatever reason, with a sign and trade Rondo could go to whatever team he wants and the C's could pick up a lot of value through picks and or players. Could Rondo take a max deal with someone, sure but then the C's could match and a year later move him. I just all those reasons, depending upon the scenario, are good reasons to wait. You looked at it one way, I looked at it another.

Matching a max deal that you think is too much with the intention of trading him a year later is an insane move Nick.

That's a ton of risk with a very sketchy pay out. It's incredibly difficult to get a good package for a max player who's worth it. For a guy whom you think is overpaid, its not going to happen.

[Greenbean]

i think Rondo is gone in a sign and trade next year if he doesn't clean up his act.  He's a good player but seems to be stubborn and want to do things his own way which is causing disharmony on the team.  How can you lead a team if nobody on the team likes you?  He's got the year to fix it otherwise the team will bring in an allstar calliber player with the money that Rondo wants (D Wade) and let Rondo go on to figure it out somewhere else.   He's a great talent but with great talent comes great responsibility. 

1. Were not getting D WADE.
2. Rondo being a problem for team chemistry has been the most overblown story of the off season. If there was some tension I think it has been squashed. Especially after looking at the preseason. They really are a family and occasionally the younger flashier brother is gonna stir things up.
3. Why would we let Rondo figure it out somewhere else? This is rediculous. Why start over with someone else? How often to point guards come along who can an elite player while being a pure passing point? Questions you need to answer before letting this guy go. The number one complaint for almost any struggling team is defense, and then its usually point guard play. Well Rondo checks both of those off for us hopefully for the next 10 years.

By the way. I really loved the OP's rant. I dont necessarily think they NEED to extend him now but still, great post.

[nickagneta]

Nick you just listed the one big reason to try to sign him now:

5.) The free agent market of 2010 - a lot of team are betting big time that big time free agents will be available next summer. But if LeBron, Bosh, and Wade al resign with their teams there could be a lot of teams looking to fill the void with a player like Rondo and could mortgage their future for him. It might be wise to play it otu ans see what happens.

Such a team might not mortgage their future by giving up picks/players. They might just blow all of their cap space on him, thus forcing the Celtics to pay above market value for him. Or letting him walk for nothing.

I think the smart course is to have him play out the year. If he's worth the big deal, he needs to prove it with a better year than last.

I don't see it that way. I see it that if he has a spectacular year but the C's don't want him back, for whatever reason, with a sign and trade Rondo could go to whatever team he wants and the C's could pick up a lot of value through picks and or players. Could Rondo take a max deal with someone, sure but then the C's could match and a year later move him. I just all those reasons, depending upon the scenario, are good reasons to wait. You looked at it one way, I looked at it another.

Matching a max deal that you think is too much with the intention of trading him a year later is an insane move Nick.

That's a ton of risk with a very sketchy pay out. It's incredibly difficult to get a good package for a max player who's worth it. For a guy whom you think is overpaid, its not going to happen.

Who said the Celtics thought or I thought the max deal was too much, making it insane? I did preface that by saying Rondo had a spectacular season Faf, didn't you see that? But the C's could not want him back for the own reasons. So if he won't agree to a sign and trade to where ever he wants and decides to just sign a max deal offer, the C's match. He had an awesome year, he's obviously worth it in the market place. One year later they can move him. If he is playing at the level I described it is a very viable risk. Not insane.

[Fafnir]

Nick you just listed the one big reason to try to sign him now:

5.) The free agent market of 2010 - a lot of team are betting big time that big time free agents will be available next summer. But if LeBron, Bosh, and Wade al resign with their teams there could be a lot of teams looking to fill the void with a player like Rondo and could mortgage their future for him. It might be wise to play it otu ans see what happens.

Such a team might not mortgage their future by giving up picks/players. They might just blow all of their cap space on him, thus forcing the Celtics to pay above market value for him. Or letting him walk for nothing.

I think the smart course is to have him play out the year. If he's worth the big deal, he needs to prove it with a better year than last.

I don't see it that way. I see it that if he has a spectacular year but the C's don't want him back, for whatever reason, with a sign and trade Rondo could go to whatever team he wants and the C's could pick up a lot of value through picks and or players. Could Rondo take a max deal with someone, sure but then the C's could match and a year later move him. I just all those reasons, depending upon the scenario, are good reasons to wait. You looked at it one way, I looked at it another.

Matching a max deal that you think is too much with the intention of trading him a year later is an insane move Nick.

That's a ton of risk with a very sketchy pay out. It's incredibly difficult to get a good package for a max player who's worth it. For a guy whom you think is overpaid, its not going to happen.

Who said the Celtics thought or I thought the max deal was too much, making it insane? I did preface that by saying Rondo had a spectacular season Faf, didn't you see that? But the C's could not want him back for the own reasons. So if he won't agree to a sign and trade to where ever he wants and decides to just sign a max deal offer, the C's match. He had an awesome year, he's obviously worth it in the market place. One year later they can move him. If he is playing at the level I described it is a very viable risk. Not insane.

But in which case can't we lock him up for a much smaller contract now?

You said you saw no reason to extend him before this year, but if it'd save the team 10+ million over the term of the contract that would be a very strong reason to explore an extension.

So I think you're glossing over the main benefit of extending him now, potentially saving a ton of money over what he'd get next year. Especially if you think the C's would have to match a max contract offer.

[nickagneta]

Nick you just listed the one big reason to try to sign him now:

5.) The free agent market of 2010 - a lot of team are betting big time that big time free agents will be available next summer. But if LeBron, Bosh, and Wade al resign with their teams there could be a lot of teams looking to fill the void with a player like Rondo and could mortgage their future for him. It might be wise to play it otu ans see what happens.

Such a team might not mortgage their future by giving up picks/players. They might just blow all of their cap space on him, thus forcing the Celtics to pay above market value for him. Or letting him walk for nothing.

I think the smart course is to have him play out the year. If he's worth the big deal, he needs to prove it with a better year than last.

I don't see it that way. I see it that if he has a spectacular year but the C's don't want him back, for whatever reason, with a sign and trade Rondo could go to whatever team he wants and the C's could pick up a lot of value through picks and or players. Could Rondo take a max deal with someone, sure but then the C's could match and a year later move him. I just all those reasons, depending upon the scenario, are good reasons to wait. You looked at it one way, I looked at it another.

Matching a max deal that you think is too much with the intention of trading him a year later is an insane move Nick.

That's a ton of risk with a very sketchy pay out. It's incredibly difficult to get a good package for a max player who's worth it. For a guy whom you think is overpaid, its not going to happen.

Who said the Celtics thought or I thought the max deal was too much, making it insane? I did preface that by saying Rondo had a spectacular season Faf, didn't you see that? But the C's could not want him back for the own reasons. So if he won't agree to a sign and trade to where ever he wants and decides to just sign a max deal offer, the C's match. He had an awesome year, he's obviously worth it in the market place. One year later they can move him. If he is playing at the level I described it is a very viable risk. Not insane.

But in which case can't we lock him up for a much smaller contract now?

You said you saw no reason to extend him before this year, but if it'd save the team 10+ million over the term of the contract that would be a very strong reason to explore an extension.

So I think you're glossing over the main benefit of extending him now, potentially saving a ton of money over what he'd get next year. Especially if you think the C's would have to match a max contract offer.

But then a ton of things could change that could make that signing at a lower number look bad.

Listen, I'm not going to sit here all day and discuss every single different scenario with you, Faf. The gist of what I am trying to say is that no matter what they do, it stands a very good chance of being wrong because of all the different variables involved and that they are more likely to make the right decision by waiting.

And what if they wait, what is the worst that can happen to them? If he has a spectacular year and gets a max offer they match it or S%T him before that. If he has a so-so year he won't get any huge offers because teams will know the C's will match. If he has a bad year, who's going to offer him anything?

I just think the C's smartest move is waiting. There's just so much that could happen that would lead to him signing now to being a bad thing as opposed to having all the stars aligned and having it be a good thing.

[Fafnir]

Fundamentally I agree with you Nick. I just think you glossed over the very real risk that goes with not extending Rondo.

[jv2764]

Come on, Ainge!! What is the holdup? I DON'T CARE IF HE IS RESTRICTED NEXT YEAR. He is among the best to have ever played here at point guard. He might be eventually the best in the league. You stupid idiots! Don't play around with him anymore! I just won't be able to deal with another Celtics big goof story of 'if there but for fortune.' No more Lenny Bias- almost, no more Tim Duncan, Tim Hardaway who was there to be taken on draft night, Joe Johnson, no more Leon Powe, no more Larry Bird, what is he doing over there in Indiana anyways, this is nuts!!!! Rajon Rondo is the reason we win so much. Their motor only runs smoothly with him out there. He is special. Everyone knows this!!!! Anyone and everyone with eyes. When he has got the ball on a break, even when he gets into his defensive stance at half court, when the rebound goes up for grabs, you know what. I AM AT THE EDGE OF MY SEAT!!! You know why? Because we have Rajon Rondo out there. While the whole league is running on elctricic, he's on nuclear. 100% rock and roll with a lot of a lot of soul. He makes my heart do flips. He is by far the most interesting, and exciting player to watch on our tam. My favorite player I would say, and if he is a restricted to be on the 1st, I will be deeply hurt and concerned. Our management, Ainge or whoever, will be guilty of an overthink and I, as a fan, will have lost some trust in them. Come on, Celts, what are you waiting for? Nothing concerns me more at this time than hearing he is signed.

Thank God you're not the GM.  NO need to resign Rondo. It takes two sides to make a fair deal at this point.  NO need to over pay now.  And how in the world do you equate Leon Powe with Bias, Duncan, Hardaway, and Joe Johnson?  Where are you going with that?  Len Bias died.  Duncan was a loss due tio piong pong balls.  Hardaway was eons ago and Joe Johnson was before DA got there.

[nickagneta]

Fundamentally I agree with you Nick. I just think you glossed over the very real risk that goes with not extending Rondo.

You're right, I probably am glossing it over a bit. But they do control the situation and worst that could happen if they extend him later is they overpay for him. The same can't be said if they sign him now.

TP4U Faf. As always, excellent debate.

[ChainSmokingLikeDino]

and Bird in Indiana? I know I am much happier with DA as GM than Larry. Obviously I love Larry as a player, Celtic great, etc. but he has been nothing but a middling GM at best. Tradition only goes so far if it leaves you with a franchise that looks like The Pacers.

[ChainSmokingLikeDino]

Nick you just listed the one big reason to try to sign him now:

5.) The free agent market of 2010 - a lot of team are betting big time that big time free agents will be available next summer. But if LeBron, Bosh, and Wade al resign with their teams there could be a lot of teams looking to fill the void with a player like Rondo and could mortgage their future for him. It might be wise to play it otu ans see what happens.

Such a team might not mortgage their future by giving up picks/players. They might just blow all of their cap space on him, thus forcing the Celtics to pay above market value for him. Or letting him walk for nothing.

I think the smart course is to have him play out the year. If he's worth the big deal, he needs to prove it with a better year than last.

I don't see it that way. I see it that if he has a spectacular year but the C's don't want him back, for whatever reason, with a sign and trade Rondo could go to whatever team he wants and the C's could pick up a lot of value through picks and or players. Could Rondo take a max deal with someone, sure but then the C's could match and a year later move him. I just all those reasons, depending upon the scenario, are good reasons to wait. You looked at it one way, I looked at it another.

Except when you sign a player (matching in this case) to a large contract you can't just easily move him in a beneficial trade. Trying to trade players with max or large multi-year contracts is near impossible in the NBA. You almost always end up taking 50 cents on the dollar at best. It is the classic situation where your desire to trade becomes a stronger incentive than the players being traded and other GM's know this. The team desperate to make a move always takes back way less than they give up. So matching Rondo, running him a year, then wanting to trade him would leave The Celtics in a very poor position, one in which they would not get back near the value the hypothetical Rondo has in this scenario.