Rotation and Minutes

[Jon]

Quite a few number of my disagreements with some on this board about the role of bench players has essentially stemmed from my belief that there's going to be a fairly short bench this year and others' beliefs that Doc will go fairly deep.  Furthermore, several previews on major websites have irked me, as some so-called experts have discussed the contributions that Shelden Williams will make to this team.  Why that's all well and good, in my eyes, not one, but two big men will have to get hurt for Shelden to sniff the court in anything but a blow out. 

That said, what are your projections for a regular season rotation?  I'm talking about the rotation we'll see in meaningful games, not 20 point blowouts.  So what you put in this thread might not be what everyone averages over the course of the season, depending on the amount of blowouts we have. 

Here's my projections:

PG Rondo 36; House 12
SG Allen 32; House 8; Daniels 8
SF Pierce 32; Daniels 16
PF KG 30; Wallace 5; BBD 13
C Perkins 28; Wallace 20

That comes down to the following:

Rondo 36
Allen 32
Pierce 32
KG 30
Perk 28
Wallace 25
Daniels 24
House 20
BBD 13

So I really see it a 9 man rotation, with BBD's minutes fairly low.  I really wouldn't be surprised come playoff time if BBD's role is fairly nonexistent, as KG, Wallace, and Perks all eat up his remaining minutes. 

And for those of you who'll suggest we go deeper, I simply ask why?  In the rotation we have above, no one plays excessively and our best players are on the court at all times. 

[Vermont Green]

What, no minutes for Scal?  Say it ain't so!

You are going to have to pull out some minutes from the core rotation in terms of their average because I think the end of the bench players (Scal, Tony Allen, Hudson) are going to be playing some in terms of season average.  Maybe not every game, but they will be logging minutes.  I agree that Williams probably will not play much if he even stays with the team and I am starting to wonder about Giddens and Walker as well.  Watch out for Sweetney though, he may sneak in and get minutes in blowouts.  He could actually make the playoff roster and be ready to contribute by then.

[clover]

You're going to have injuries, you want to develop guys and keep guys fresh.  So I see Scal, Walker and Hudson all slipping in a few minutes here and there through the season.

But come playoffs, if everyone's healthy, I think you're pretty much right about the rotations.

[billysan]

I think you are very close in terms of distibution. I think we will see 'stretches' where Baby gets a bunch more minutes, obviously if some one gets hurt or needs a game off. Most especially if we have clinched the numba one seed early. This to make sure KG, Perk and Sheed are well rested.

Unfortunately Doc will likely not do the same for Ray and Paul with Scal and the rest of the 'end of the bench' crew. Whoever they may be....

[Jon]

While everyone's free to speculate on whatever they want in this thread, just to remind you guys, I intentionally was excluding blowouts from my projections. 

As for the playoffs, to be honest with you guys, I think the Big Three are going to play a bit more than 30-32 mpg.  They'll likely play 36 mpg+ knocking House and BBD's minutes down dramatically. 

[PosImpos]

I think this is a really good breakdown.  My only qualm is that I think Perkins will earn more than 28 mpg this year.  I expect him to play more like 30-32 mpg.  Not a huge difference, but I don't think Doc will be able to keep him off the floor.

[HomeRunBaker]

I think this is a really good breakdown.  My only qualm is that I think Perkins will earn more than 28 mpg this year.  I expect him to play more like 30-32 mpg.  Not a huge difference, but I don't think Doc will be able to keep him off the floor.

I'm actually expecting Perkins minutes to decrease this season with the addition of Rasheed taking up a chunk of Perk's 2nd and 4th quarter minutes if not all of them.

[fairweatherfan]

I like the OP rotation for a playoff rotation (starter's minutes obviously go up a bit then), but I think we'll go deeper than that in the regular season.  We already know that Doc loves playing as many players as possible.  Doc and the coaching staff trust Scal out there, so he'll sneak in a bit, and for some crazy reason TA falls into this category too.  I also think we'll see a little bit of Hudson now and then, both to see what he can do and to give him a little seasoning in case (knock on wood) Rondo gets hurt.  We might see Walker get a few meaningful minutes after his recovery as well.  I agree that Shelden and Giddens aren't going to be seeing much burn at all, though.

[gar]

All of which means that Hudson will be in D league w/ Giddens once practice times become limited.

I do think he is helpful running against Rondo in practice.

[Jon]

I like the OP rotation for a playoff rotation (starter's minutes obviously go up a bit then), but I think we'll go deeper than that in the regular season.  We already know that Doc loves playing as many players as possible.  Doc and the coaching staff trust Scal out there, so he'll sneak in a bit, and for some crazy reason TA falls into this category too.  I also think we'll see a little bit of Hudson now and then, both to see what he can do and to give him a little seasoning in case (knock on wood) Rondo gets hurt.  We might see Walker get a few meaningful minutes after his recovery as well.  I agree that Shelden and Giddens aren't going to be seeing much burn at all, though.

OK, while I see your point to some extent, how does your vision actually play out in minutes?  Doc has already said that the starters aren't going to see their minutes cut that much, so it's quite likely that the starters play even more than I projected.  I don't mean to be a jerk, but if you see all these other players playing, where do their minutes come from?  What would an average game look like?

I just keep seeing people in other threads talking about all these players who are going to have "roles" on this team, and I just don't see it unless there's an injury. 

[fairweatherfan]

I like the OP rotation for a playoff rotation (starter's minutes obviously go up a bit then), but I think we'll go deeper than that in the regular season.  We already know that Doc loves playing as many players as possible.  Doc and the coaching staff trust Scal out there, so he'll sneak in a bit, and for some crazy reason TA falls into this category too.  I also think we'll see a little bit of Hudson now and then, both to see what he can do and to give him a little seasoning in case (knock on wood) Rondo gets hurt.  We might see Walker get a few meaningful minutes after his recovery as well.  I agree that Shelden and Giddens aren't going to be seeing much burn at all, though.

OK, while I see your point to some extent, how does your vision actually play out in minutes?  Doc has already said that the starters aren't going to see their minutes cut that much, so it's quite likely that the starters play even more than I projected.  I don't mean to be a jerk, but if you see all these other players playing, where do their minutes come from?  What would an average game look like?

I just keep seeing people in other threads talking about all these players who are going to have "roles" on this team, and I just don't see it unless there's an injury. 

I think it depends on the opponent - against better teams, it'll look pretty similar to your description, except I think Scal will get 4-8 minutes most games, occasionally more (for example, he's definitely gonna get some burn against Stoudemire when we play the Suns).  I think Doc will consistently find a few minutes for Scal in the majority of games - this is one of the reasons he's trying him at the 3 in preseason. If Doc is happy with Scal at the 3, he'll probably play there on our mostly bench units, with Daniels staying in the backcourt.

Against weak or average teams, Doc will probably look to get guys like TA and Lester, maaaaybe Shelden but probably not, 3-4 second quarter minutes - 2nd quarter appears to be when he gets the most creative with extending the bench.  These minutes will come off the starters' totals.  I agree overall that that's our 9 man rotation right there in the OP though.  I see Scal worked in pretty consistently as a glue guy, Lester getting a few meaningful minutes against some weaker teams just as a little Rondo insurance, and TA coming in for God knows why, but he'll be out there at some point - maybe Doc has stock in aspirin futures    Everybody else will be garbage time or highly situational.

[EJPLAYA]

I think you will see a lot more blowouts this year than we even imagine which will be maintained and increased even with our strong second unit.

I think you see about 28-30 minutes from the Big 3 and Rondo, 24ish from Perk as Rasheed takes up minutes. Wallace and Daniels getting about 24-26, and House about 15 unless he's hot. I think you're pretty right on except Rondo. When he's on we crush teams and his minutes will be lower due to the blowout. When he's not Doc will play Daniels and House more. I don't see more than mop up minutes for BBD or Shelden or Scal. TA won't, and shouldn't, see the floor unless it's garbage time. He should see at least 50% DNP's this year and the rest under 5 min.

[Jon]

I think you will see a lot more blowouts this year than we even imagine which will be maintained and increased even with our strong second unit.

I think you see about 28-30 minutes from the Big 3 and Rondo, 24ish from Perk as Rasheed takes up minutes. Wallace and Daniels getting about 24-26, and House about 15 unless he's hot. I think you're pretty right on except Rondo. When he's on we crush teams and his minutes will be lower due to the blowout. When he's not Doc will play Daniels and House more. I don't see more than mop up minutes for BBD or Shelden or Scal. TA won't, and shouldn't, see the floor unless it's garbage time. He should see at least 50% DNP's this year and the rest under 5 min.

Well, I do agree that minutes will be lower because of blow outs.  However, I think the minutes I have above likely will include blowouts.  Do you really think Perkins, an emerging young stud at center should really just play 24 mpg?  What type of message does that send to him?  I think the more likely and more realistic thing is that he'll play 28-30 mpg, so will KG and Wallace, and BBD will likely play little. 

And while I agree that they'll play fewer minutes in blow outs, they'll also likely play more minutes in games against the elite teams of the league. 

And to extend this further, I'm curious to those who've talked in other threads about Lester Hudson, Bill Walker, and even Shelden Williams having a consistent role on the team.  I say this genuinely: how?  Where will these minutes come from?  Because the way I see it now, there's too many good players requiring too many minutes to go much beyond a 9 man rotation on most nights. 

[clover]

I think you will see a lot more blowouts this year than we even imagine which will be maintained and increased even with our strong second unit.

I think you see about 28-30 minutes from the Big 3 and Rondo, 24ish from Perk as Rasheed takes up minutes. Wallace and Daniels getting about 24-26, and House about 15 unless he's hot. I think you're pretty right on except Rondo. When he's on we crush teams and his minutes will be lower due to the blowout. When he's not Doc will play Daniels and House more. I don't see more than mop up minutes for BBD or Shelden or Scal. TA won't, and shouldn't, see the floor unless it's garbage time. He should see at least 50% DNP's this year and the rest under 5 min.

Well, I do agree that minutes will be lower because of blow outs.  However, I think the minutes I have above likely will include blowouts.  Do you really think Perkins, an emerging young stud at center should really just play 24 mpg?  What type of message does that send to him?  I think the more likely and more realistic thing is that he'll play 28-30 mpg, so will KG and Wallace, and BBD will likely play little. 

And while I agree that they'll play fewer minutes in blow outs, they'll also likely play more minutes in games against the elite teams of the league. 

And to extend this further, I'm curious to those who've talked in other threads about Lester Hudson, Bill Walker, and even Shelden Williams having a consistent role on the team.  I say this genuinely: how?  Where will these minutes come from?  Because the way I see it now, there's too many good players requiring too many minutes to go much beyond a 9 man rotation on most nights. 

I agree, as long as Perk's shoulder holds together this is the year that he beats the fouling trap and sees 30 minutes on average.  Shelden only gets consistent run if one of the bigs ahead of him is injured, and Walker gets a chance, but better show something pretty quickly in order to stick in the rotation. 

I think Hudson actually brings the most of those three based on position and need, and his combination of defense, aggressiveness and learning fairly rapidly will buy him more patience from Doc than rookies generally get.  If he progresses as well as he has in these first two games I think he gets to climb as high as 10th in the rotation by the All-Star break.  My guess is Hudson at the 1 outplays Walker at the 3, and so gets that 10th man slot.  Doc likes having a full 2nd team, so after all his hard knocks, Hudson finally lucks out.  It could be as simple as the 2nd unit running smoothest when Hudson's at the 1 and Daniels is at the 3.

[slamtheking]

Don't be surprised if Hudson eventually gets 5-6 minutes from House and Daniels' time. 

Also, the talk of blowouts is counting chickens before they hatch.  The best Celtic teams of the 80's never had that many blowouts even though they were clearly superior to almost every other team in the league.  These guys will still get a handful of blowouts but not enough to significantly impact their average minutes per game.