Hey math people, I need to a come up with a math problem to present to my class. Something along the same level as the last couple I posted on here (nothing insanely difficult). Anyone have any favorites?
In the mean time here's one that took me a couple of minutes to figure out, but was a big DERRR once I did.
During the game show "Pick A Door" the contestant gets to choose one of the doors on the stage. Behind two of the doors is a bucket of dirt, behind the 3rd is some fabulous prize (make up your own) Bucko, the host, opens one of the two doors the contestant did not choose. The door he opens always reveals a bucket of dirt. The contestant is then given the option of sticking with his original choice, or switching his pick to the unrevealed door.
If you were the contestant would you stick with your original pick or switch? Why?
You switch. When you made your original pick, you had a 1/3 chance of being correct, and a 2/3 chance of being wrong. Because the door that's eliminated is always a wrong response, that 2/3 chance now only applies to the remaining door that you didn't pick.
This one is tricky from an interpretation perspective. I understand the thought behind your answer, but I view each guess as an independent event. If there are two choices then there are two choices, regardless of the previous outcome. If I were playing the mega millions and I got the first five numbers right, I wouldn't be thinking to myself "there WAS a 1 in 312,500,000 chance that I would get this point, and because of that I HAVE to change my last number to one of the 44 still available, other than the ones already chosen and whatever my original choice was." In reality, you have a precisely equal shot at each of the remaining 44 balls...the chance of getting that last number are 1 in 44, not 1 in 312 million, irregardless of what the chances of actually getting to that point were.
I understand that thinking, but look at it this way. The prize will be behind each door 1/3rd of the time, and the door that's eliminated is always an incorrect choice. So here's all the possible outcomes if you always choose to switch:
I pick A, prize is actually behind A. B or C is eliminated. I switch, I lose.
I pick A, prize is behind B. C is eliminated, I switch, I win.
I pick A, prize is behind C. B is eliminated, I switch, I win.
The guesses aren't independent because only wrong answers are eliminated. All else being equal, you win 2/3rds of the time when switching, and 1/3rd if you don't.
Actually, your logic there is flawed. You're considering the eliminations of B or C in that first case to be combined incidences. However, they are separate, just like your last two scenarios. it should be:
I pick A, prize is actually behind A. B is eliminated. I switch, I lose.
I pick A, prize is actually behind A. C is eliminated. I switch, I lose.
I pick A, prize is behind B. C is eliminated, I switch, I win.
I pick A, prize is behind C. B is eliminated, I switch, I win.
So, no matter what, at the end, you have a 50/50 shot, regarding the selection with the last two doors as a separate step.
EDIT:
Or maybe my logic is flawed. The simulator sure seems to support your theory.