http://my.journaltimes.com/post/woelfel-world-of-sports/bucks_sessions_on_brink_of_offer_sheet.htmlThe writer of the article seems to think that the bucks are not going to match it. I on the other hand think the Bucks will match it in a second, and Kahn knows it.
This is a very well played game by both the Bucks and Wolves.
First by the Bucks. They new they held the upper hand with Sessions. He thought he could get the MLE on the open market, but has learned that its not so easy when you are restricted (just ask Big Baby). There was no way he was signing with the Bucks for less than that early in the offseason. But now, as the off-season winds down, and he still sits without an MLE offer sheet, he may be looking at one for no more than about $3.7 million (I believe that is all the Wolves have remaining to offer). So by sitting back and waiting, the Bucks have possibly saved themselves a couple million a year on Sessions contract.
Now, it seems the common thought is that because the Bucks are close to the luxury tax, they won't match the offer. However, they are forgetting the fact that this would only put them maybe $2 million over the luxury tax...for now. But they have until February to get under it. Given the number of expiring contracts they have, I feel pretty confident that if they wanted to, they could shed $2 million at the deadline.
So you ask, why is this so smart for the Wolves if the Bucks are going to match? It is all part of their plan and spin machine. I firmly believe that they have a very good idea that Rubio was not coming over until 2011. In fact, they probably even preferred that. It allows him to develop more on someone else's dime, while they got to develop Flynn some more, and it allows both of their values to grow, because they both will be able to play more, and for Rubio in particular, it allows him to play in a situation where his lack of strength will not hurt him as much, so he can get stronger before coming to the NBA. And this doesn't even take into account the extra three and a half million in cap space they save next year to go after some of the free agents.
But of course, Minnesota could not say this to their fans. They are already pretty unhappy with them, and they weren't going to buy the "let's wait two more years" line, even if it is better for them in the long-run. This is where the offer to Sessions comes in. By making this offer that they know will be matched, they are able to show the fans that they are making a concerted effort to improve the team (even if they really are in a complete rebuild mode). This helps fans to believe that they actually want to win now, even though they clearly don't. Now, don't get me wrong, the smart fans will see through it, but the casual fans will say "when that jerk Rubio left them high and dry, they did everything they could to bring in Sessions at least...they just didn't have the cap room. But next year will be better."