It all depends on how Shaq is next year. If he can be really consistent and play in 65+ games and put up even better numbers than last year, then the Cavs have a chance. If Shaq shows his age, only plays in about 50 games, and his numbers go down, then the Celtics should have no problem getting the #1 seed and beating the Cavs.
Last year, the Cavs were extremely lucky during the regular season. They got a ridiculous amount of calls in their favor. They got lucky late in the games, teams underperformed against them, and the teams they played against had a much higher percentage of key players missing for those games. They did not deserve the #1 seed and should not have won 66 games. I know many of you may not agree, but if you take a close look at the stats, the statistics back it up.
In 2007-08 the Cavs won 47 games. In 2008-09 teams did not gear up to play the Cavs and underperformed against them. I watched alot of their games last year so I know. Alot of players were overdoing it watching Lebron and handing the game to him on a silver platter, instead of trying to outplay him and win the game. One play during the Pistons playoff series stood out in my mind. Something happened to Tayshuan Prince and he was lying on the floor, the basketball went directly on his back and he just laid there and made no effort to gather in the basketball. He had some sort of injury but it wasn't anything major as he came back to play later in the game. All he had to do was put his arm over the ball and the Pistons would have had posession, instead a Cavs player grabbed the ball. Players do not play like that against the Celtics, they don't just roll over and give up. Last year many many players played "pathetically" against the Cavs and it was an embarassment.
People say that our 27-2 start last year was lucky because of the come from behind wins and close games and that is true, but we also got very unlucky in the 2nd half of the season. The 2008-09 Cavs did not have one stretch of unluckiness last year during the regular season.
The 2009-10 season will be much different for the Cavs then 2008-09. First of all, Lebron's best statistical games are behind him, in my opinion. He will not improve as an individual player, and can only improve as a team player. He will not be as good as last year. Walking off the court against Orlando is a sign of this. Great players who really want to win, just don't do that. His 47 point perfomance in Game 3 in the Hawks series made no sense either. Here was a chance to get his teammates involved and get them ready for a title run, and he hogged the ball for like 90% of the time during that game. This is not the 1985-86 Bulls, the 2008-09 Cavs were going for a championship. He has a hidden agenda to grab the spotlight instead of having heart to win the games necessary to be a champion. NBA players will not look at Lebron this year, like they did last year. They will be more geared up to play him, and will not take a back seat to his antics, and I think the Orlando incident will play a role in that. Because of that I expect the Cavs to win about 57 games in 2009-10.
Besides Lebron, we are a much better team than the Cavs with 4 players who can take over a game with KG,PP,Ray & Rondo, while the Cavs only have 1 or possibly 2 with Shaq, that is why I think we are a better team.