CB Draft '09 Mock Press Conference: Southwest Division

[jgod213]

Also, although I believe it's a fist fight in an underrated division (by Denver's GM in particular!), I don't see how my front court rotation keeps me from taking first place, not when three of my competitors are starting David Lee, Chris Wilcox, and Joakim Noah respectively. (I don't dismiss any of the players in question, and I'm particularly a fan of Lee, but they don't present troublesome mismatches for us.)

Lopez might, but thus far Bosh has out-scored and out-rebounded him handily. I expect Chris will press that advantage for at least one more season.

Outside of two players, who is a known quantity?

Grant Hill?  Love him.  Went to the high school next to my middle school.  But he is old.  He is a part time player.  Can he handle the minutes needed for your team?

Randolph?  Terrible defensively at C.  Not much better at PF.  Is he a player or another guy that just looks good in Nellie ball?  How are you going to stop the big men in your conference?  Duncan, Shaq, Howard. 

Your team is built on "I hope this player does this this year".  Not the winning formula for a team hoping to be a win now team. 

I'm comfortable with a front court rotation of Bosh (37 mpg, his career average), Randolph (28-30 mpg), Hill (worse case scenario 25 mpg, which would be five fewer than he averaged last season...), Nocioni (28-30 mpg) and Andersen (I expect he could handle 20+).

That assumes, Hill plays spot minutes at the 2 and that I can't rely on Powe's return OR any production at all from my 22-and-under rookies.

As for the elite centers, I'd first point out that the center's star is in decline. And that face up 6'10" power forwards pressed into service at the 5 are the order of the day.

That said, to counter both real and perceived frontcourt disadvantages, Houston wants to get opposing big men into foul trouble early and often, luckily Bosh and Ellis - and Johnson to a lesser extent - get to the line a lot. We'll also push the tempo, our 4 and 5 may not be able to muscle opponents off the block but they can beat many down court for easy fast break points or more desperation fouls. And in the half court we'll lean on our own edge in range, ball handling, and quickness. Luckily, we're not giving up a rebound advantage to many teams.

Lastily, we'll admit that Dwight Howard is going to give Houston a lot of trouble, but there are only a handful of centers who can guard him in single coverage anyway,  we'd be in a similar predicament defending Yao Ming (if he weren't out for the season).

We'll try to bother Dwight with our length and quick double teams, something Gasol did to good effect in the Finals even when Bynum was out (Howard had almost as many fouls as field goals in the series). Until he can reliably get himself good looks in the post, his biggest effect is still going to be on the glass and on defense. And you don't acknowledge that Howard hasn't had much luck slowing Bosh either.

Who else? Duncan and Jefferson are also going to be a handful, though they're more 4/5s. And, Jefferson at least is still developing on defense. O'Neal? It hardly seems fair that, from your perspective, I can't rely on Hill, but have to gameplan for Shaq, who's even older, with far more minutes played?

But, no, I'll concede he presents a major mismatch. Again we'll try to take advantage on the other end. He now has real trouble on high pick and rolls and showing on screens.

What do you think? Are your sure I can't sell you on DeJuan Blair?

Understand, the issue I am talking about isn't that your players can't develop.  It is how do you rank the team higher now when these players haven't proved themselves in the league yet.

This is the main reason why i see the Mavs coming out of the talented SW.  We aren't relying on frontcourt guys like Wilcox/Anderson/Randolph/Blair/White/Evans to get us to where we want to go.  We're relying on proven, all star caliber veterans in the likes of Lee/Smith/Dalembert/Harrington.  I think people need to keep in mind that starters can't play 48 minutes, so reserves will be matched up for a good portion of the game.  Can you imagine what Dalembert and Harrington would do to the reserves from most of these SW teams? Again, there is a ton of talent in this Division, but it appears that most of that talent is fused into one or two (or three) guys, the cost of which is their teams' reserves and peripheral players.

Also.  When the lack of size is brought up, most of my peers in the SW respond with "well we will push the pace."  We're built for that - i'd prefer to see Bosh or Lopez exausting themselves runnning up and down the court rather than posting up on the block and getting position.  Sure Kidd is going to get beat off the dribble from time to time, but it's a two way street...Parker or Rose are going to get abused as Kidd backs them into the post and has his way.

[Roy Hobbs]

I think people need to keep in mind that starters can't play 48 minutes, so reserves will be matched up for a good portion of the game.  Can you imagine what Dalembert and Harrington would do to the reserves from most of these SW teams?

I'm definitely on board with the "depth is underrated" argument.  Voting shouldn't be solely about what team has the bigger stars.  People need to also take into account 1) depth, and 2) fit.

[wdleehi]

I think people need to keep in mind that starters can't play 48 minutes, so reserves will be matched up for a good portion of the game.  Can you imagine what Dalembert and Harrington would do to the reserves from most of these SW teams?

I'm definitely on board with the "depth is underrated" argument.  Voting shouldn't be solely about what team has the bigger stars.  People need to also take into account 1) depth, and 2) fit.

Yep. 

[Rondo2287]

Also, although I believe it's a fist fight in an underrated division (by Denver's GM in particular!), I don't see how my front court rotation keeps me from taking first place, not when three of my competitors are starting David Lee, Chris Wilcox, and Joakim Noah respectively. (I don't dismiss any of the players in question, and I'm particularly a fan of Lee, but they don't present troublesome mismatches for us.)

Lopez might, but thus far Bosh has out-scored and out-rebounded him handily. I expect Chris will press that advantage for at least one more season.

Outside of two players, who is a known quantity?

Grant Hill?  Love him.  Went to the high school next to my middle school.  But he is old.  He is a part time player.  Can he handle the minutes needed for your team?

Randolph?  Terrible defensively at C.  Not much better at PF.  Is he a player or another guy that just looks good in Nellie ball?  How are you going to stop the big men in your conference?  Duncan, Shaq, Howard. 

Your team is built on "I hope this player does this this year".  Not the winning formula for a team hoping to be a win now team. 

I'm comfortable with a front court rotation of Bosh (37 mpg, his career average), Randolph (28-30 mpg), Hill (worse case scenario 25 mpg, which would be five fewer than he averaged last season...), Nocioni (28-30 mpg) and Andersen (I expect he could handle 20+).

That assumes, Hill plays spot minutes at the 2 and that I can't rely on Powe's return OR any production at all from my 22-and-under rookies.

As for the elite centers, I'd first point out that the center's star is in decline. And that face up 6'10" power forwards pressed into service at the 5 are the order of the day.

That said, to counter both real and perceived frontcourt disadvantages, Houston wants to get opposing big men into foul trouble early and often, luckily Bosh and Ellis - and Johnson to a lesser extent - get to the line a lot. We'll also push the tempo, our 4 and 5 may not be able to muscle opponents off the block but they can beat many down court for easy fast break points or more desperation fouls. And in the half court we'll lean on our own edge in range, ball handling, and quickness. Luckily, we're not giving up a rebound advantage to many teams.

Lastily, we'll admit that Dwight Howard is going to give Houston a lot of trouble, but there are only a handful of centers who can guard him in single coverage anyway,  we'd be in a similar predicament defending Yao Ming (if he weren't out for the season).

We'll try to bother Dwight with our length and quick double teams, something Gasol did to good effect in the Finals even when Bynum was out (Howard had almost as many fouls as field goals in the series). Until he can reliably get himself good looks in the post, his biggest effect is still going to be on the glass and on defense. And you don't acknowledge that Howard hasn't had much luck slowing Bosh either.

Who else? Duncan and Jefferson are also going to be a handful, though they're more 4/5s. And, Jefferson at least is still developing on defense. O'Neal? It hardly seems fair that, from your perspective, I can't rely on Hill, but have to gameplan for Shaq, who's even older, with far more minutes played?

But, no, I'll concede he presents a major mismatch. Again we'll try to take advantage on the other end. He now has real trouble on high pick and rolls and showing on screens.

What do you think? Are your sure I can't sell you on DeJuan Blair?

Understand, the issue I am talking about isn't that your players can't develop.  It is how do you rank the team higher now when these players haven't proved themselves in the league yet.

This is the main reason why i see the Mavs coming out of the talented SW.  We aren't relying on frontcourt guys like Wilcox/Anderson/Randolph/Blair/White/Evans to get us to where we want to go.  We're relying on proven, all star caliber veterans in the likes of Lee/Smith/Dalembert/Harrington.  I think people need to keep in mind that starters can't play 48 minutes, so reserves will be matched up for a good portion of the game.  Can you imagine what Dalembert and Harrington would do to the reserves from most of these SW teams? Again, there is a ton of talent in this Division, but it appears that most of that talent is fused into one or two (or three) guys, the cost of which is their teams' reserves and peripheral players.

Also.  When the lack of size is brought up, most of my peers in the SW respond with "well we will push the pace."  We're built for that - i'd prefer to see Bosh or Lopez exausting themselves runnning up and down the court rather than posting up on the block and getting position.  Sure Kidd is going to get beat off the dribble from time to time, but it's a two way street...Parker or Rose are going to get abused as Kidd backs them into the post and has his way.

This is pretty full of overstatements if you ask me

[Rondo2287]

And Dallas just a tip you may not wanna use J-Kidd's name and "Abused" in the same sentence. 

[jgod213]

Rondo, what exactly was an overstatement with regards to my post?

You don't believe that Dalembert and Harrington far outclass the bench reserves from the rest of my Division?

Also, i made mention that Kidd is going to get beat, but he isn't a liability on the court my friend.

82games.com has both Kidd AND Terry in the top 50 in their Roland Ratings, keep in mind this is out of all eligable players from every position... 

The main components of the 'Roland Ratings' are a production measure (a variant of John Hollinger's PER rating) for a player's own stats versus the counterpart player on the other team while he is on the court, as well as a simple on court/off court plus minus.

If you want to go even further into this, Kidd is ranked SIXTH in "on court/off court net," which is basically a plus/minus.  He had a higher "net" then Kobe and Brandon Roy.  Only CP3 had a better "net."

Granted these are just numbers and aren't idicative of a players true, overall value, but clearly Kidd is MUCH better then you're giving him credit for.  You're point guard, on the other hand, was 29th in plus/minus.  So if Kidd is a revolving door, i suppose Miller is like a string of beads hanging from the ceiling.

[Rondo2287]

"Parker or Rose are going to get abused as Kidd backs them into the post and has his way. "

I personally just am not that High on Dalembert, and you really believe that Rose is going to get abused in the post after watching him be extremely physical in the playoffs?

[Roy Hobbs]

Rondo, what exactly was an overstatement with regards to my post?

You don't believe that Dalembert and Harrington far outclass the bench reserves from the rest of my Division?

Also, i made mention that Kidd is going to get beat, but he isn't a liability on the court my friend.

82games.com has both Kidd AND Terry in the top 50 in their Roland Ratings, keep in mind this is out of all eligable players from every position... 

The main components of the 'Roland Ratings' are a production measure (a variant of John Hollinger's PER rating) for a player's own stats versus the counterpart player on the other team while he is on the court, as well as a simple on court/off court plus minus.

If you want to go even further into this, Kidd is ranked SIXTH in "on court/off court net," which is basically a plus/minus.  He had a higher "net" then Kobe and Brandon Roy.  Only CP3 had a better "net."

Granted these are just numbers and aren't idicative of a players true, overall value, but clearly Kidd is MUCH better then you're giving him credit for.  You're point guard, on the other hand, was 29th in plus/minus.  So if Kidd is a revolving door, i suppose Miller is like a string of beads hanging from the ceiling.

While I'm a supporter of your team, I think you're relying on faulty statistics here.

The worst player in the NBA (among players playing 35% of their team's minutes) according to net +/-?  Kevin Durant.

The third worst?  Derek Rose.

[Rondo2287]

And Dallas, Dont get me wrong, I ranked your team first in your division I just think that statement was a bit over the top at points

[jgod213]

And Dallas, Dont get me wrong, I ranked your team first in your division I just think that statement was a bit over the top at points

Ok, i'll give you that rose is a better post defender then his size would indicate, and i'll also give Roy that +/- isnt the best evalution tool, but you don't get high on those lists or make the olympics team by being a liability.  The fact remains that when Kidd is on the court, his team generally outperforms his counterparts' team.  "Abused" was probably too strong, but he'll find a way to take advantage of smaller points like ellis and parker.

Also, i'm going to stick to my statement that Dalembert and Harrington outclass my SW rivals' bench bigs.  I won't/can't be convinced that Noccioni/Blair/Andersen/White/Amundsen/Hollins/Amir Johnson/Evans/Ely or Shelden Williams can handle either Dalembert or Harrington.  That was literally a list of the ENTIRE group of players who they would be matched up against other then Bargnani and Kirilenko.  Bargnani is real solid off the bench, but Al Harrington would be able to hang with him as he floats around the 3 pt line.  Kirilenko is also a great bench guy, but he's much more of a 3 then a 4, and asking him to play backup 4 for a whole season is going to wear him down significantly.

[KCattheStripe]

Also.  When the lack of size is brought up, most of my peers in the SW respond with "well we will push the pace."  We're built for that - i'd prefer to see Bosh or Lopez exausting themselves runnning up and down the court rather than posting up on the block and getting position.  Sure Kidd is going to get beat off the dribble from time to time, but it's a two way street...Parker or Rose are going to get abused as Kidd backs them into the post and has his way.

I don't say that at all, in fact we don't want to push the pace at all. We'd rather see an game in the 90's and watch Marion and Josh Smith go nuts. Also, we'd love to see Josh Smith drawn out to the 3 point line where he's no where near as an effective defender. As for Parker getting abused by Kid... right because thats exactly what happened in last years playoffs. TP shredded Kidd and was the only reason a hobbled San Antonio won a game.

[jgod213]

Also.  When the lack of size is brought up, most of my peers in the SW respond with "well we will push the pace."  We're built for that - i'd prefer to see Bosh or Lopez exausting themselves runnning up and down the court rather than posting up on the block and getting position.  Sure Kidd is going to get beat off the dribble from time to time, but it's a two way street...Parker or Rose are going to get abused as Kidd backs them into the post and has his way.

I don't say that at all, in fact we don't want to push the pace at all. We'd rather see an game in the 90's and watch Marion and Josh Smith go nuts. Also, we'd love to see Josh Smith drawn out to the 3 point line where he's no where near as an effective defender. As for Parker getting abused by Kid... right because thats exactly what happened in last years playoffs. TP shredded Kidd and was the only reason a hobbled San Antonio won a game.

Tony Parker put up big points in the first round last year, he got to the basket real well, but let's ease back on "shredding" J-Kidd since Kidd was FAR more efficient then Parker was, which is again what i'll ask Kidd to do.  let's take a closer look at a few other stats though, shall we?

               3pt%  rebs/gm   ast/to  steals/game
Parker:    .214          4           1.6          1.2
Kidd:      .435            6           9.3          2.4

Kidd took about 60 shots in their matchup, Parker took over 120.  I'll take the guy that averages almost 10 assists per turnover for my system, but that's just how i personally prefer my point guards.

[KCattheStripe]

Also.  When the lack of size is brought up, most of my peers in the SW respond with "well we will push the pace."  We're built for that - i'd prefer to see Bosh or Lopez exausting themselves runnning up and down the court rather than posting up on the block and getting position.  Sure Kidd is going to get beat off the dribble from time to time, but it's a two way street...Parker or Rose are going to get abused as Kidd backs them into the post and has his way.

I don't say that at all, in fact we don't want to push the pace at all. We'd rather see an game in the 90's and watch Marion and Josh Smith go nuts. Also, we'd love to see Josh Smith drawn out to the 3 point line where he's no where near as an effective defender. As for Parker getting abused by Kid... right because thats exactly what happened in last years playoffs. TP shredded Kidd and was the only reason a hobbled San Antonio won a game.

Tony Parker put up big points in the first round last year, he got to the basket real well, but let's ease back on "shredding" J-Kidd since Kidd was FAR more efficient then Parker was, which is again what i'll ask Kidd to do.  let's take a closer look at a few other stats though, shall we?

               3pt%  rebs/gm   ast/to  steals/game
Parker:    .214          4           1.6          1.2
Kidd:      .435            6           9.3          2.4

Kidd took about 60 shots in their matchup, Parker took over 120.  I'll take the guy that averages almost 10 assists per turnover for my system, but that's just how i personally prefer my point guards.

Thats what happens when the guys you're passing too aren't very good, you don't get assists. But the idea that J-Kidd can just easily dominate Tp on either end of the floor is preposterous.

[KCattheStripe]

Dallas, I'm also curious as to how you plan on playin Marion and Smith together? I really don't like that Forward tandem, as I'v estated, butI am willing to be persuaded. What about them together do you like?

[jgod213]

Dallas, I'm also curious as to how you plan on playin Marion and Smith together? I really don't like that Forward tandem, as I'v estated, butI am willing to be persuaded. What about them together do you like?

To quickly address TP/Kidd - a did redact my statement that Kidd would "abuse" Parker on offense.  He would be able to back Parker down, but certainly that won't be the focul point of our offense if/when we were to play Memphis.  Also i do recognize that Parker would get his on offense, although the idea that Kidd is a revolving door (as others have insinuated) is also not accurate.

As far as the Marion/Smith tandem goes, i really like the potential they bring and the enthusiasm they'll have for getting up the floor with Kidd.  I know that Marion/Smith don't have the deep shooting abilities of Carter or Jefferson when they were highlight reels in NJ, but both Marion and Smith are nearly unguardable in the open court...this is why i drafted Kidd.  He certianly isn't the fastest point guard, but what he loves to do is look up the court immediately, which is something a lot of point guards just don't do these days.  Smith and Marion KNOW they will be on the throw-down end of a great pass if they're willing to get into their lanes and get down court.

As i also mention in my press release, Marions numbers flat stunk last year, particularly his long-ball shooting.  But if you look back to his numbers with the Suns his shooting numbers are staggeringly good.  He thrives when the reigns are taken off, and we believe that the flow of our offense will get him to that comfort level again - to the point where he will be stretching defenses again on offense.

The thing i love the most about my team is that if Marion has any struggles playing next to Smith we can plug Daniels or Harrington in that spot and switch Marion in and out of the 3 and 4.  I think come playoff time everything will sort its self out due to the amount of talented depth that we have.