Author Topic: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?  (Read 11068 times)

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Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2009, 12:20:55 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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The Celtics will not have a big FA summer in 2010 either way, but especially not by the method you speak of.

However, there is a viable way for the Celtics to secure a major star who would otherwise be a FA in the summer of 2010.  Both Danny and Wyc have touched on this, unsollicited, and it is by a mid-season trade.  Even Danny alluded rather bluntly to the possibility of a mid-season trade involving Ray Allen.  With his contract combined with other player talent and draft picks, the Celtics CAN get a major 2010 Free Agent.  The odds aren't great, but it is possible.

So if they can make a big mid-season trade for a big time FA, why couldnt they make a play for a big FA after the season?

Motivations are different. A midseason trade provides cap relief, and probably other assets (like draft picks).

A trade during the offseason adds salary to a team, plus it decreases Ray Allens value, as he'll probably need to be involved in any sign and trade situation, or Rondo... and they would have to agree to go to the team they're being traded to. Assuming the other team would be interested in them.

For trades, sure. I get that. I am asking, with a lot of money able to come off the books at the end of the year, why couldn't the C's be a FA player?

I think this ownership would pay significant tax for a few years if they could make this team competitive for the long-term.



As I said in my first post in this thread, the reason is that we won't have cap room to be players during free-agency. We'll have the same financial resources as in years past, the mid-level exception in addition to the all the bird rights that will enable us to keep our free-agents. But we won't be players in free-agency other than via a sign and trade situation, or for players willing to come for the MLE.

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2009, 01:10:11 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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The Celtics will not have a big FA summer in 2010 either way, but especially not by the method you speak of.

However, there is a viable way for the Celtics to secure a major star who would otherwise be a FA in the summer of 2010.  Both Danny and Wyc have touched on this, unsollicited, and it is by a mid-season trade.  Even Danny alluded rather bluntly to the possibility of a mid-season trade involving Ray Allen.  With his contract combined with other player talent and draft picks, the Celtics CAN get a major 2010 Free Agent.  The odds aren't great, but it is possible.

So if they can make a big mid-season trade for a big time FA, why couldnt they make a play for a big FA after the season?

Motivations are different. A midseason trade provides cap relief, and probably other assets (like draft picks).

A trade during the offseason adds salary to a team, plus it decreases Ray Allens value, as he'll probably need to be involved in any sign and trade situation, or Rondo... and they would have to agree to go to the team they're being traded to. Assuming the other team would be interested in them.

For trades, sure. I get that. I am asking, with a lot of money able to come off the books at the end of the year, why couldn't the C's be a FA player?

I think this ownership would pay significant tax for a few years if they could make this team competitive for the long-term.



As I said in my first post in this thread, the reason is that we won't have cap room to be players during free-agency. We'll have the same financial resources as in years past, the mid-level exception in addition to the all the bird rights that will enable us to keep our free-agents. But we won't be players in free-agency other than via a sign and trade situation, or for players willing to come for the MLE.




There seems to always be tons of confusion over this.

Remember this: $30 million dollars of expiring contracts DOES NOT equal $30 million to spend in free agency.

Basically, here's why:

-There's a salary cap that says a team cannot spend more than 56 million dollars on payroll. (The exact number is somewhere around there and fluctuates year to year based on league revenue.)

-If you want to offer a max type player a contract starting at 17 mil per year, you need to have the contracts of every player on your roster add up to be 17 million less than the salary cap

-Remember that players who expire continue to count against your cap until you announce that you do not want them back by renouncing your "bird rights" on said player ("bird rights" = the ability to go over the cap to keep your own players)

-So, the NBA salary cap is a "Soft Cap," with several ways to go above it:

1. "Bird Rights" - You can always resign players who have been on your team for 3 years or for whom you traded, up to the maximum league salary, even if you have to go over the cap to do so.

2. MLE, LLE, Vet Min. - Every team at or over the salary cap can go over the cap using the MLE each year (about $5.5 mil), the LLE every other year (about $2 mil) or any number of league minimum salaries (anywhere from say $700,000-$1.4 mil or so I believe based on years played.

3. First round picks - A team can always sign it's first round picks at the league determined amount (starts at around 4 mil for the #1 pick i believe down to 1 mil by the end).

4. Raises - A new salary only has to fit into the cap for the year in which it is signed, then can offer raises every year in some cases up to 10.5% per year. Get a few of those and the salaries are suddenly over the cap without adding any players.

5. Trades - In order for trades to work if a team is over the cap, the incoming salaries must be within 25% + $100,000. So if a team is exactly at the cap, and they have a player making 10,000,000, they could trade him for a player making 12,600,000 and suddenly that team is $2.6 mil over the cap. Do this several years in a row, especially if each time you are trading a shorter deal for a longer one, and you end up with that mess the knicks had a few years ago.



The Celtics: Through all the means listed above, over several years, the Celtics have managed to get their payroll up to around $83,000,000. They were over the cap to begin this offseason, but added free agents through the MLE (Wallace), Vet Min (Williams), and the LLE (Daniels), and signed BBD to an extension because of Early Bird rights (a variation on bird rights that basically allows a team to always keep its own players).  In order to add a big free agent next year (the C's will still be able to use the MLE next year for about $5.5 mil), they'd need to get under the $56 million dollar cap (ballpark figure). So if you're talking about signing Wade, Bosh, or Lebron as a free agent, they'll be eligible for starting salaries around 17 million I believe, so the Celtics would need to get down to $39 million dollars in salary. Which is technically close to possible if: Ray, Scal, Tony, Eddie, and Walker all expire and are not re-signed or replaced; They decline Giddens' option; Pierce decides he doesn't want the $21,000,000 remaining on his contract and he walks away without being re-signed or replaced AND the team decides not to extend Rondo and let's him play out his 5th year for the qualifying offer most likely to walk as an unrestricted free agent the following year.

Barring all that (which is just ridiculously unlikely), when Ray, Eddie, Scal, and Tony all come off the books, yes, that's $30,000,000 coming off, but that still just gets us down TO the salary cap, not under it in any way.



I hope that helps, but it basically comes down to:
The Cap number is what matters, and you need to be far under the cap to sign a big FA. The Celtics are SO FAR OVER the cap that even with 30,000,000 coming off the books, they still will be at or over the cap for 2010 free agency.

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2009, 01:21:17 PM »

Offline Jack_Frost

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Fantastic post, thank you.

Let me think about this scenario:

1) Pierce opt out: about 12 mln x 3 years
2) Bye bye Ray, Eddie, Scal, and Tony
3) We can use Rondo's Bird rights (let the contract expire then resign)

What do you think about?

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2009, 01:30:37 PM »

Offline Gainesville Celtic

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According to HoopsHype, Shelden Williams' contract is worth $825.000 and not the 1.3mil vet minimum. Even Baby will get a 2-3mil/year deal, and Marquis Daniels won't be that expensive also.
Danny will probably end up signing Lester Hudson (I hope he does), but a #58 pick is extra-cheap, so... This means we're probably heading for a big FA name in 2010!

Roy Hobbs can correct me if I'm wrong, but our cap situation for next summer is looking good.   
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

Danny is making all the right moves to keep us in a position to win AND looking for next year's FA market. Wyc Grousbeck even said a few months ago that there's "a way" we could land a big FA name, probably refering to Paul's final year option (I can see Pierce limiting his salary to bring, say, Dwyane Wade).


I think the confusion is also b/c Hoopshype is listing Shelden Williams cap hit, not his actual salary. (Hoopshype is a good quick reference but they're figures are not always correct. I also like Shamsports for salary figures (though it's a bit harder to find on their site))

As someone mentioned the veteran's minimum is tied to years of NBA service.

Shelden Williams has played 3 years in the NBA so the minimum salary he can receive is $855,189.

However, to avoid teams not signing older, slightly more expensive players, the NBA counts only the value of a 2-year veteran ($825,497) against the cap AND they pay the difference between that 2-year amount and the veteran's actual salary. so the NBA will actually pay ~$25,000 of Williams' salary back to the Celtics.

If we were to sign, say, Tyronn Lue to the minimum he woudl get a salary, as a 10-year vet of 1,3046,455 -- the Celtics would pay the same $825,497 they're paying Sh. Williams and the NBA would pay the other ~$500,000.
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Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2009, 01:37:34 PM »

Offline jv2764

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I can step in:

No way.

1. Paul is not opting out.

2. We'd better hope that Rondo doesn't take the QO listed...that means he'd be an unrestricted free agent after. Not keeping him?

3. Rasheed Wallace will account for about 5.5 million (he signed a 2 year MLE deal)

4. Cap is going backwards.

I can see a situation where paul opts out to get a guarenteed 13 million for 3 years. Like wise I think Ray could resign for slightly less too
Are you kidding me?  Why would he leave $8M on the table?  He can get that for his next deal after the player option.

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2009, 01:43:32 PM »

Offline jv2764

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I can step in:

No way.

1. Paul is not opting out.

2. We'd better hope that Rondo doesn't take the QO listed...that means he'd be an unrestricted free agent after. Not keeping him?

3. Rasheed Wallace will account for about 5.5 million (he signed a 2 year MLE deal)

4. Cap is going backwards.

I can see a situation where paul opts out to get a guarenteed 13 million for 3 years. Like wise I think Ray could resign for slightly less too
Are you kidding me?  Why would he leave $8M on the table?  He can get that for his next deal after the player option.
Wait you are saying 13 million for 3 years or are you saying $13M each year?  Under the former he would be taking a pay cut of $16 to $17 million for that option year.  Under the latter be he be taking an 8 million pay cut in the option year.  NO WAY MAN.  Why would any sane human being do that? 

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2009, 02:34:54 PM »

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Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2009, 02:48:35 PM »

Offline Global Celtic

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The Celtics will not have a big FA summer in 2010 either way, but especially not by the method you speak of.

However, there is a viable way for the Celtics to secure a major star who would otherwise be a FA in the summer of 2010.  Both Danny and Wyc have touched on this, unsollicited, and it is by a mid-season trade.  Even Danny alluded rather bluntly to the possibility of a mid-season trade involving Ray Allen.  With his contract combined with other player talent and draft picks, the Celtics CAN get a major 2010 Free Agent.  The odds aren't great, but it is possible.

So if they can make a big mid-season trade for a big time FA, why couldnt they make a play for a big FA after the season?

Motivations are different. A midseason trade provides cap relief, and probably other assets (like draft picks).

A trade during the offseason adds salary to a team, plus it decreases Ray Allens value, as he'll probably need to be involved in any sign and trade situation, or Rondo... and they would have to agree to go to the team they're being traded to. Assuming the other team would be interested in them.

For trades, sure. I get that. I am asking, with a lot of money able to come off the books at the end of the year, why couldn't the C's be a FA player?

I think this ownership would pay significant tax for a few years if they could make this team competitive for the long-term.



As I said in my first post in this thread, the reason is that we won't have cap room to be players during free-agency. We'll have the same financial resources as in years past, the mid-level exception in addition to the all the bird rights that will enable us to keep our free-agents. But we won't be players in free-agency other than via a sign and trade situation, or for players willing to come for the MLE.




There seems to always be tons of confusion over this.

Remember this: $30 million dollars of expiring contracts DOES NOT equal $30 million to spend in free agency.

Basically, here's why:

-There's a salary cap that says a team cannot spend more than 56 million dollars on payroll. (The exact number is somewhere around there and fluctuates year to year based on league revenue.)

-If you want to offer a max type player a contract starting at 17 mil per year, you need to have the contracts of every player on your roster add up to be 17 million less than the salary cap

-Remember that players who expire continue to count against your cap until you announce that you do not want them back by renouncing your "bird rights" on said player ("bird rights" = the ability to go over the cap to keep your own players)

-So, the NBA salary cap is a "Soft Cap," with several ways to go above it:

1. "Bird Rights" - You can always resign players who have been on your team for 3 years or for whom you traded, up to the maximum league salary, even if you have to go over the cap to do so.

2. MLE, LLE, Vet Min. - Every team at or over the salary cap can go over the cap using the MLE each year (about $5.5 mil), the LLE every other year (about $2 mil) or any number of league minimum salaries (anywhere from say $700,000-$1.4 mil or so I believe based on years played.

3. First round picks - A team can always sign it's first round picks at the league determined amount (starts at around 4 mil for the #1 pick i believe down to 1 mil by the end).

4. Raises - A new salary only has to fit into the cap for the year in which it is signed, then can offer raises every year in some cases up to 10.5% per year. Get a few of those and the salaries are suddenly over the cap without adding any players.

5. Trades - In order for trades to work if a team is over the cap, the incoming salaries must be within 25% + $100,000. So if a team is exactly at the cap, and they have a player making 10,000,000, they could trade him for a player making 12,600,000 and suddenly that team is $2.6 mil over the cap. Do this several years in a row, especially if each time you are trading a shorter deal for a longer one, and you end up with that mess the knicks had a few years ago.



The Celtics: Through all the means listed above, over several years, the Celtics have managed to get their payroll up to around $83,000,000. They were over the cap to begin this offseason, but added free agents through the MLE (Wallace), Vet Min (Williams), and the LLE (Daniels), and signed BBD to an extension because of Early Bird rights (a variation on bird rights that basically allows a team to always keep its own players).  In order to add a big free agent next year (the C's will still be able to use the MLE next year for about $5.5 mil), they'd need to get under the $56 million dollar cap (ballpark figure). So if you're talking about signing Wade, Bosh, or Lebron as a free agent, they'll be eligible for starting salaries around 17 million I believe, so the Celtics would need to get down to $39 million dollars in salary. Which is technically close to possible if: Ray, Scal, Tony, Eddie, and Walker all expire and are not re-signed or replaced; They decline Giddens' option; Pierce decides he doesn't want the $21,000,000 remaining on his contract and he walks away without being re-signed or replaced AND the team decides not to extend Rondo and let's him play out his 5th year for the qualifying offer most likely to walk as an unrestricted free agent the following year.

Barring all that (which is just ridiculously unlikely), when Ray, Eddie, Scal, and Tony all come off the books, yes, that's $30,000,000 coming off, but that still just gets us down TO the salary cap, not under it in any way.



I hope that helps, but it basically comes down to:
The Cap number is what matters, and you need to be far under the cap to sign a big FA. The Celtics are SO FAR OVER the cap that even with 30,000,000 coming off the books, they still will be at or over the cap for 2010 free agency.

Thanks for the explanation, Danny Ainge.

PS: I understand what you're saying, but in that case... the Lakers, Cavs and Magic are in a worst situation than us, right? That makes me feel better.


Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2009, 02:49:43 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Here is what Realgm has BBD's contract looking like.
http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/61049/20090809/celtics_to_give_davis_$63m_over_two_years/

Lol, if you read only what it says on the link itself you might think they'd be giving him 63 million.

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2009, 03:07:45 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Remember that Rondo is a tricky situation as well. By next offseason, we will either have to extend him a new contract (around 8-12 per year) which would count against the cap, or, if we wanted that cap space, we'd have to let him go.

The only other option is to offer him a qualifying offer and let him become a Restricted Free Agent. Remember, though, that in order to prevent teams from signing a free agent with their cap space then turning around and signing their own free agents using bird rights, a team's free agents still count against the cap in the form of "holds." check this out:

From Larry Coon's Salary Cap FAQ:
Quote
30. How much do free agents count against their team's salary cap?

The free agent amount depends on the player's previous salary and what kind of free agent he is:
Kind of free agent    Previous salary    Free agent amount
Any    Minimum salary    Portion of minimum salary not reimbursed by the league (see question number 11)
Larry Bird, except when coming off rookie scale contract    At least the average salary    150% of his previous salary*
Larry Bird, except when coming off rookie scale contract    Below the average salary    200% of his previous salary*
Larry Bird, following the fourth season of his rookie scale contract    At least the average salary    250% of his previous salary*
Larry Bird, following the fourth season of his rookie scale contract    Below the average salary    300% of his previous salary*
Larry Bird, following the third season of his rookie scale contract    Any    The maximum salary the team can pay the player using the Bird exception
Early Bird, following the second season of his rookie scale contract    Any    The maximum salary the team can pay the player using the Early Bird exception
Early Bird (all others)    Any    130% of his previous salary*
Non-Bird    Any    120% of his previous salary*

* Not to exceed the player's maximum salary, based on years of service (see question number 11). If the difference in salary between the last two seasons of the player's contract exceeded $4 million, then the percentage is based on the average salary in the last two seasons of the contract.

A restricted free agent counts against his team's salary cap by the greatest of:

    * His free agent amount (as defined in the table above)
    * The amount of his qualifying offer (see question number 36)
    * The first year salary from any offer sheet the player signs with another team (see question number 36)


This means that if we refuse to extend rondo at 8-12 or whatever he's worth but don't want to just renounce his rights and let him walk, he would still count against our cap for about $6,300,000 minimum or whatever the best offer he receives is on the market(and you know it will be pretty good).


So basically, Rondo himself will probably take up around 10 mil of our cap. The only way to avoid this would be to:
-trade him for future picks to a team under the cap
-trade him for a younger player with a few years left on his rookie deal
-let him walk away for nothing.

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #25 on: August 09, 2009, 03:26:37 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Thanks for the explanation, Danny Ainge.

PS: I understand what you're saying, but in that case... the Lakers, Cavs and Magic are in a worst situation than us, right? That makes me feel better.



Well, I don't know. The Lakers certainly won't have any cap room possibility until 2011 offseason, and then only if Kobe takes a big paycut and they don't add any other long term salary between then and now. I will say, however, that their money is locked up in slightly younger versions of the Celtics' guys (Gasol, Bynum, Odom). A lot depends on Bynum living up to his contract.

Without major changes, the Magic won't have room until 2013, but their core is younger at average, with their big earners being Nelson, Carter, Howard, Lewis and Gortat.


Cleveland is hard to determine. On the one hand, you have Lebron, the single best building piece. On the other hand, they don't have many trading chips that have much value (unless someone will give them something of value for Ilgauskas' expiring deal, something that will help them more than Ilgauskas the player). They could be slightly under the cap next year, if they let Shaq and Ilgauskas walk and also void Delonte's unguaranteed year. And if Lebron walks, ouch. However, they could be in good shape for the 2011 offseason if Lebron sticks around and they don't add a lot of long term money.

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #26 on: August 09, 2009, 03:31:55 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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I will also add that the above news about our lack of cap space in the coming season is what leads a lot of people to entertaining Ray Allen trade ideas. Since we can't use his expiring money to sign a free agent next year, one way to get around that would be to trade Ray to a team that has some player(s) with longer deals that it wants to be rid of. That would accomplish something similar to if we could let ray walk at the end of the year and use his money to sign free agents; we'd just have to do it before this year's trade deadline and target players with hefty deals that are toiling away on bad teams but could help a contender.

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #27 on: August 09, 2009, 03:52:28 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I am definitely of the mindset that if Ray isn't having an all-star type year, we really do need to trade him for a Kevin Martin (and Nocioni for salary purposes)/Michael Redd type player...Here's hoping he is the same Ray we know and love, but I don't know if he can go forever- and we do have a short window...that can be extended if we trade him for a young stud.

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #28 on: August 09, 2009, 04:06:25 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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I am definitely of the mindset that if Ray isn't having an all-star type year, we really do need to trade him for a Kevin Martin (and Nocioni for salary purposes)/Michael Redd type player...Here's hoping he is the same Ray we know and love, but I don't know if he can go forever- and we do have a short window...that can be extended if we trade him for a young stud.

In the interest of NOT turning this thread about salary cap/free agency into a Ray Allen trade debate, such a thread is here:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=28391.msg558781;topicseen#new

Re: Shelden and Baby cheap contracts = C's looking at a big 2010 FA?
« Reply #29 on: August 09, 2009, 04:46:40 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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4. Raises - A new salary only has to fit into the cap for the year in which it is signed, then can offer raises every year in some cases up to 10.5% per year. Get a few of those and the salaries are suddenly over the cap without adding any players.



thank you very much for great post. it helps understand all this a BIT more...

but i have question concerning point #4 on Raises... does this mean that a team such as the celtics could sign a FA and avoid going over the cap this way....

celtics have only $5 million in cap room. so they sign a FA for $4,999,999 in year one of the contract, then in subsequent year provde huge raises to bring the salary up tl mayb $20,000,000.

which over the life of the contract would provide the FA with the same total amount of salary as if he had signed for $17,000,000 per year.

thanks.
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