New Orleans wouldn't trade Paul now when he has 3 years left on his deal. In 2 years if they think that he might leave, I can see them looking to deal Paul. But right now, when their attendance would probably drop by a couple of thousand if he leaves, there's no way they trade Paul.
I absolutely agree with that, which was typed while I was typing the following. The attendance hit and blow to New Orleans' fan base would be too much. It's not happening now. And people are talking about this like New Orleans just wants to get rid of Paul to save the money they're paying HIM. Not so at all. His presence earns them more than enough money to justify his salary, even double his salary. So they're not desperate to move him.
But to paraphrase O.J., if this could happen, here's how it would have to happen:
I would be shocked if the Hornets would be willing to deal Paul without including Stojakovic. They can get somebody to take on Chandler on his own, but can't get anybody willing to take Peja and his remaining two years and $27,648,000. New Orleans will also want to wipe out a bunch of cash for this year, since they're not gonna pay the luxury tax for a team with no Chris Paul. That's the pill a team is gonna have to swallow if they even hope to get Paul.
Here are some possibilities (I did not factor Davis into any of them, but he can be substituted relatively easily - just using half his contract value instead of the whole amount when trying to match outgoing salary - i.e., take out Giddens and Walker or TA and sub in Davis, depending on what he would sign for):
1. Ray, Rondo, Perk, TA, Giddens, Pruitt, Walker (total of $ 31,712,579) and probably draft picks for Paul, Chandler, Peja and Devin Brown (total of $40,507,572). That number on its face is actually more than 125% + 100K of what we send out, but Brown's $1,107,572 minimum deal doesn't have count as incoming salary, so we barely meet the 125% rule.
New Orleans saves $8.8 million in salary, about $9.6 million if they do it in time to waive Pruitt's salary, and an additional $7 million or so in luxury tax payments (the full amount of their probable luxury tax). Boston spends about $19.2 mil, factoring luxury payments, to make this deal.
Boston's new roster is Paul, Brown or Peja (ugh), Pierce, Garnett and Wallace, with Chandler, House, Peja/Brown, Scal and possibly (considering the injury concerns with Chandler, we'll probably need him) Davis as our bench.
2. Same package as 1 (again, $31,712,579) for Paul, Peja, Mo Peterson, Hilton Armstrong, Brown (total of $37,065,250 before Peterson's trade kicker).
New Orleans saves $5,352,671, $6,178,168 with a Pruitt waiver. They save $10.7 - 12.35 million factoring in the tax and only have another $850 K - $1.65 Mil to drop to get below the luxury level. If they swap in Posey for Mo, they save an extra $25/50 K plus long term money. We take on a little less this year but an extra year.
We take on an extra $12.35 mil in total payments plus double Peterson's kicker, or $12.4 mil if we take Posey instead of Peterson. Our lineup is Paul, Brown/Peja, Pierce, KG, Sheed with a bench of Posey or Mo (maybe Mo starts), House, Peja/Brown, Scal, and Davis, who we'll definitely need. Maybe we go for Butler instead of Armstrong and Brown, but we have no backup center (except Baby).
3. Same package as 1 and 2 plus Scal ($35,126,572) for Paul, Peja, Chandler, Rasual Butler and Brown ($44,452,572). Works if Brown doesn't count as incoming.
New Orleans stands to save over $10 mil in salary if they waive Pruitt. We end up paying more than $20 mil this year for the overhaul, and a lineup of Paul, Butler, Pierce, KG, Sheed and a bench of House, Brown, Peja, Chandler and we'll really need to resign Davis.
4. Same package as 3 ($35 mil) for Paul, Peja, Posey, Peterson, Armstrong and Brown ($43,097,050).
New Orleans saves about $8-9 million and goes below the luxury level, we take on about $16 mil plus Peterson trade kicker costs. Lineup of Paul, Brown/Peterson/Peja, Pierce, KG, Sheed; House, Peterson/Brown/Peja, Posey, Armstrong, probably Davis.
5. Same package as 3 and 4 but without Perk ($30,376,372) for Paul, Peja, Posey, Butler, Brown ($38,234,372). Again, trade works if we don't count Brown's minimum salary. Peterson can be substituted for Posey if his trade kicker increases his salary by less than $965,000.
New Orleans saves about $7.9-8.7 mil and drops below the luxury tax, we take on probably close to $19 mil in salary to have a lineup of Paul, Butler, Pierce, KG, Perk, with a bench of Sheed, Posey/Peterson, House, Peja, Brown, probably Davis.
These are the realistic scenarios. Keep in mind it will cost us about $16-20 million this year alone, and will also cost us a lot of money over the next two years. But we'd also get the best point guard and one of the top 5 players in the NBA right now at age 24.
Frankly, while losing Ray would be really hard to overcome since they don't have a good 2 guard to return to us (Devin Brown with his size can at least step in there even if he's not good and I would prefer a deal that at least gets us Butler - also not good but somewhat better) - I don't think I could turn down the opportunity to get a 24 year old who might be not just one of the best 3-5 point guards in the league, which is what Rondo might become, but one of the best 3-5 point guards in the history of the league, which is what Paul is on his way to being.
The model of this team is three max contract guys and complementary pieces. We cash in Ray for Chris Paul and have one of our max guys for the next decade. Our complementary pieces take a hit, particularly if we have to include Perkins (deal 5 is easily my favorite), but we'll have talent, albeit at ridiculously exorbitant costs. And next year, while we won't be able to be a player in free agency, we'll have Peja's and maybe Peterson's expiring contracts for a potential salary dump. And in the future, we're rebuilding around Paul instead of Rondo.
This is what it would take to get Paul right now, as we speak. And even then, the huge likely attendance and revenue drop for New Orleans probably wouldn't justify the $15-20 million they'd save this year and the huge future savings ($14 mil next year for Peja alone) on top of that.
It's easy to say that getting West and Paul for just Rondo and either Paul or Ray is a better deal. No kidding. Getting one of the 5 best players in the NBA AND an All Star on top of that for Rondo and Ray is a better deal? Really?
But be realistic as to what New Orleans is gonna want. Chris Paul isn't just their best chip - he's one of the 3 best chips in the entire league (with Lebron and Howard). A top 5 player in the league already, a point guard, and he's 24. If New Orleans is gonna deal him now, it's gonna be to get rid of at least one REALLY bad contract - not Tyson Chandler but Peja Stojakovic - and future bad money, enough savings to get below the luxury tax now, and some young pieces. The scenarios above are realistic, if very risky. But that's the risk you're gonna have to take to get Paul. If you're not willing to take on this kind of money, getting Paul is unrealistic.
Topic: Would N.O. really Deal Chris Paul? (Read 20643 times)