Salary cap projected to go down as much as $7.3 million next season

[Jaehos]

Yes a possible 30 NBA player jobs would disappear but it is going to keep the average salary much higher because significant drops in the BRI are going to mean more and more teams not being able to offer much except the MLE for many years. This is going to drive down salaries long term and hamper player movement.

I think this could be a much more serious problem than the average fan realizes!!!

Can you explain more why you think a decrease of salaries would:
A) Hamper player movement
B) Hurt the game?

If the salary cap goes down for all teams, essentially all teams must reduce their willingness to pay for players.  Since all teams will be doing that (except for maybe the top 3-4 teams), wouldn't the net effect on Player Movement be a wash?  instead of a mid-level player (let's say Big Baby)) getting 6 million to change teams, he'll only be able to get 4 million.  But he'd still take that over his salary now.

Perhaps is the naivety or optimist in me, but wouldn't lower Salaries overall eventually translate into lower ticket prices, making the game more affordable for more fans?

I'm curious to hear why you think this a bad development.

[wdleehi]

Yes a possible 30 NBA player jobs would disappear but it is going to keep the average salary much higher because significant drops in the BRI are going to mean more and more teams not being able to offer much except the MLE for many years. This is going to drive down salaries long term and hamper player movement.

I think this could be a much more serious problem than the average fan realizes!!!

Can you explain more why you think a decrease of salaries would:
A) Hamper player movement
B) Hurt the game?

If the salary cap goes down for all teams, essentially all teams must reduce their willingness to pay for players.  Since all teams will be doing that (except for maybe the top 3-4 teams), wouldn't the net effect on Player Movement be a wash?  instead of a mid-level player (let's say Big Baby)) getting 6 million to change teams, he'll only be able to get 4 million.  But he'd still take that over his salary now.

Perhaps is the naivety or optimist in me, but wouldn't lower Salaries overall eventually translate into lower ticket prices, making the game more affordable for more fans?

I'm curious to hear why you think this a bad development.

How many teams that had breathing space under the luxury tax are going to see that disappear? 

Suddenly instead of 20 teams willing to use the MLE (partial or full), the number drops to 10. 


And the lowers cost of players will never translate into lower ticket costs.  Only way to do that is for less fans to buy tickets. 

[BballTim]

I think Rondo can forget about getting a 10 million a year offer now. 

Not if his agent points at that ridiculous Bargnani contract.

His agent can point all that he wants.  If another team is not offering Rondo that type of money, why should the Celtics?

  If he has a good season then next year will be a great time to be a free agent. Some team who (now) doesn't have room for a max player will start looking for players who could be stars but won't command the max. Teams that cleared a ton of cap space but don't sign anyone will still look at adding to their teams. Kind of like reverse musical chairs.

  I wouldn't count on Rondo not improving. I wouldn't count on the fact that not one team with cap space that doesn't get LeBron or Bosh won't overpay. If Rondo were a RFA this summer the odds of his getting a big offer aren't that great. Next year is a different story.

Or what it could mean is that the team most likely to offer Rondo the most money is going to be the Celtics and they won't have to offer him anywhere near what they could have because they won't need to go to the max.

I think eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. Most teams are going to be over the cap for a couple of years due to the lower number and only be able to offer MLE's and LLE's. That means fewer teams will have 2 max contract spots open under the cap. That means some of the expected max guys are going to be taking deals that ordinarily would have gone to the Rondo's and Turkoglu's of the NBA. That means that players like Rondo might have to settle for even less.

If a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year suddenly can afford only one max FA and a $10 million FA I think it more likely they sign a max FA and then wait to see who are the expected max FA guys that didn't get signed to max deals and sign one for $10 million per year than they would to rush into signing a possible future max FA guy like Rondo that might never materialize.

  You could easily be right. But what if a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year don't get LeBron or Wade or Bosh? What do they do with their money then? I agree that eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. I just don't think that will happen next summer. I think that there will be more teams with big cap space than there will be players worth max money. How many teams are trying to set themselves up for next summer? It seems like a lot. There was a big anticipated FA class a few years ago (I think when TD could have been a FA). Most of those players stayed with their teams. I'm pretty sure that some not-so-great players got some good money that summer. Never underestimate the stupidity of an nba gm with lots of cash to spend.

[nickagneta]

Yes a possible 30 NBA player jobs would disappear but it is going to keep the average salary much higher because significant drops in the BRI are going to mean more and more teams not being able to offer much except the MLE for many years. This is going to drive down salaries long term and hamper player movement.

I think this could be a much more serious problem than the average fan realizes!!!

Can you explain more why you think a decrease of salaries would:
A) Hamper player movement
B) Hurt the game?

If the salary cap goes down for all teams, essentially all teams must reduce their willingness to pay for players.  Since all teams will be doing that (except for maybe the top 3-4 teams), wouldn't the net effect on Player Movement be a wash?  instead of a mid-level player (let's say Big Baby)) getting 6 million to change teams, he'll only be able to get 4 million.  But he'd still take that over his salary now.

Perhaps is the naivety or optimist in me, but wouldn't lower Salaries overall eventually translate into lower ticket prices, making the game more affordable for more fans?

I'm curious to hear why you think this a bad development.

First, as wdl said, ticket prices are never going down. That's a pipe dream.

Second, your premise is flawed. Why does all teams willingness to spend money over the cap and luxury tax have to decrease. The NBA has a bunch of very fiscally healthy teams with affluent owners that can afford quite a bit of money over both the cap and the luxury tax. That number is not just the top 3-4 teams. It is well into double digits.

So, if the only teams willing to lower their willingness to spend are the teams that can't afford much over the cap, then when teams spend money on free agents that are under the cap, don't expect them to spend much more for years to come because just one or two big deals will remove them from free agency spending. Also, since a lot of teams will spend over the cap, all they will have to offer is the MLE and LLE. With fewer teams getting under the cap and most free agency contracts being available being MLE contracts more and more players will elect to stay with their teams who can offer them more money than MLE because they own their Bird rights.

So as more players re-sign with their own teams, they will be doing it for less because their teams will know that they aren't going to have to offer max numbers to keep them, only money that is over the MLE. So less players move around and players make less.

[wdleehi]

I think Rondo can forget about getting a 10 million a year offer now. 

Not if his agent points at that ridiculous Bargnani contract.

His agent can point all that he wants.  If another team is not offering Rondo that type of money, why should the Celtics?

  If he has a good season then next year will be a great time to be a free agent. Some team who (now) doesn't have room for a max player will start looking for players who could be stars but won't command the max. Teams that cleared a ton of cap space but don't sign anyone will still look at adding to their teams. Kind of like reverse musical chairs.

  I wouldn't count on Rondo not improving. I wouldn't count on the fact that not one team with cap space that doesn't get LeBron or Bosh won't overpay. If Rondo were a RFA this summer the odds of his getting a big offer aren't that great. Next year is a different story.

Or what it could mean is that the team most likely to offer Rondo the most money is going to be the Celtics and they won't have to offer him anywhere near what they could have because they won't need to go to the max.

I think eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. Most teams are going to be over the cap for a couple of years due to the lower number and only be able to offer MLE's and LLE's. That means fewer teams will have 2 max contract spots open under the cap. That means some of the expected max guys are going to be taking deals that ordinarily would have gone to the Rondo's and Turkoglu's of the NBA. That means that players like Rondo might have to settle for even less.

If a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year suddenly can afford only one max FA and a $10 million FA I think it more likely they sign a max FA and then wait to see who are the expected max FA guys that didn't get signed to max deals and sign one for $10 million per year than they would to rush into signing a possible future max FA guy like Rondo that might never materialize.

  You could easily be right. But what if a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year don't get LeBron or Wade or Bosh? What do they do with their money then? I agree that eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. I just don't think that will happen next summer. I think that there will be more teams with big cap space than there will be players worth max money. How many teams are trying to set themselves up for next summer? It seems like a lot. There was a big anticipated FA class a few years ago (I think when TD could have been a FA). Most of those players stayed with their teams. I'm pretty sure that some not-so-great players got some good money that summer. Never underestimate the stupidity of an nba gm with lots of cash to spend.

They might have room to add only one big FA.

That FA isn't going to be Rondo.  They can't sell that.

[nickagneta]

I think Rondo can forget about getting a 10 million a year offer now. 

Not if his agent points at that ridiculous Bargnani contract.

His agent can point all that he wants.  If another team is not offering Rondo that type of money, why should the Celtics?

  If he has a good season then next year will be a great time to be a free agent. Some team who (now) doesn't have room for a max player will start looking for players who could be stars but won't command the max. Teams that cleared a ton of cap space but don't sign anyone will still look at adding to their teams. Kind of like reverse musical chairs.

  I wouldn't count on Rondo not improving. I wouldn't count on the fact that not one team with cap space that doesn't get LeBron or Bosh won't overpay. If Rondo were a RFA this summer the odds of his getting a big offer aren't that great. Next year is a different story.

Or what it could mean is that the team most likely to offer Rondo the most money is going to be the Celtics and they won't have to offer him anywhere near what they could have because they won't need to go to the max.

I think eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. Most teams are going to be over the cap for a couple of years due to the lower number and only be able to offer MLE's and LLE's. That means fewer teams will have 2 max contract spots open under the cap. That means some of the expected max guys are going to be taking deals that ordinarily would have gone to the Rondo's and Turkoglu's of the NBA. That means that players like Rondo might have to settle for even less.

If a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year suddenly can afford only one max FA and a $10 million FA I think it more likely they sign a max FA and then wait to see who are the expected max FA guys that didn't get signed to max deals and sign one for $10 million per year than they would to rush into signing a possible future max FA guy like Rondo that might never materialize.

  You could easily be right. But what if a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year don't get LeBron or Wade or Bosh? What do they do with their money then? I agree that eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. I just don't think that will happen next summer. I think that there will be more teams with big cap space than there will be players worth max money. How many teams are trying to set themselves up for next summer? It seems like a lot. There was a big anticipated FA class a few years ago (I think when TD could have been a FA). Most of those players stayed with their teams. I'm pretty sure that some not-so-great players got some good money that summer. Never underestimate the stupidity of an nba gm with lots of cash to spend.

I think you have a great point about not seeing the effect right away but only if a lot of the big names stay home next year. If the big names re-sign(Bosh, LeBron, Wade, etc) then the guys that will be getting some of those open spots will be the Ray Allens, Carlos Boozers, Tracy McGradys of the NBA who are a step down and either aged or needing to prove something. So it could still effect a guy like Rondo who might decide that a 5 year $45 million deal at home in Boston is better than possibly being frozen out into MLE land if some of the other names get the open spots.

It could work either way. It could work both ways. But what I think we can agree on is it's definitely going to have a huge impact on player movement, salaries, and the state of the NBA going into a renegotiated CBA in 2011.

[BballTim]

I think Rondo can forget about getting a 10 million a year offer now. 

Not if his agent points at that ridiculous Bargnani contract.

His agent can point all that he wants.  If another team is not offering Rondo that type of money, why should the Celtics?

  If he has a good season then next year will be a great time to be a free agent. Some team who (now) doesn't have room for a max player will start looking for players who could be stars but won't command the max. Teams that cleared a ton of cap space but don't sign anyone will still look at adding to their teams. Kind of like reverse musical chairs.

  I wouldn't count on Rondo not improving. I wouldn't count on the fact that not one team with cap space that doesn't get LeBron or Bosh won't overpay. If Rondo were a RFA this summer the odds of his getting a big offer aren't that great. Next year is a different story.

Or what it could mean is that the team most likely to offer Rondo the most money is going to be the Celtics and they won't have to offer him anywhere near what they could have because they won't need to go to the max.

I think eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. Most teams are going to be over the cap for a couple of years due to the lower number and only be able to offer MLE's and LLE's. That means fewer teams will have 2 max contract spots open under the cap. That means some of the expected max guys are going to be taking deals that ordinarily would have gone to the Rondo's and Turkoglu's of the NBA. That means that players like Rondo might have to settle for even less.

If a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year suddenly can afford only one max FA and a $10 million FA I think it more likely they sign a max FA and then wait to see who are the expected max FA guys that didn't get signed to max deals and sign one for $10 million per year than they would to rush into signing a possible future max FA guy like Rondo that might never materialize.

  You could easily be right. But what if a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year don't get LeBron or Wade or Bosh? What do they do with their money then? I agree that eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. I just don't think that will happen next summer. I think that there will be more teams with big cap space than there will be players worth max money. How many teams are trying to set themselves up for next summer? It seems like a lot. There was a big anticipated FA class a few years ago (I think when TD could have been a FA). Most of those players stayed with their teams. I'm pretty sure that some not-so-great players got some good money that summer. Never underestimate the stupidity of an nba gm with lots of cash to spend.

I think you have a great point about not seeing the effect right away but only if a lot of the big names stay home next year. If the big names re-sign(Bosh, LeBron, Wade, etc) then the guys that will be getting some of those open spots will be the Ray Allens, Carlos Boozers, Tracy McGradys of the NBA who are a step down and either aged or needing to prove something. So it could still effect a guy like Rondo who might decide that a 5 year $45 million deal at home in Boston is better than possibly being frozen out into MLE land if some of the other names get the open spots.

It could work either way. It could work both ways. But what I think we can agree on is it's definitely going to have a huge impact on player movement, salaries, and the state of the NBA going into a renegotiated CBA in 2011.

  I could see Boozer, but would you really give a big contract to Ray Allen or TMac over Rondo next summer? I just think it's a big risk. If they wait until next summer to sign him to a deal then he'll be a year better and he'll possibly be an all-star or 2-time nba champ. His price wouldn't likely be lower. I think there's just as good a chance that some idiot gm will make an offer the Celts won't want to match as it is that he won't get a decent offer.

[BballTim]

I think Rondo can forget about getting a 10 million a year offer now. 

Not if his agent points at that ridiculous Bargnani contract.

His agent can point all that he wants.  If another team is not offering Rondo that type of money, why should the Celtics?

  If he has a good season then next year will be a great time to be a free agent. Some team who (now) doesn't have room for a max player will start looking for players who could be stars but won't command the max. Teams that cleared a ton of cap space but don't sign anyone will still look at adding to their teams. Kind of like reverse musical chairs.

  I wouldn't count on Rondo not improving. I wouldn't count on the fact that not one team with cap space that doesn't get LeBron or Bosh won't overpay. If Rondo were a RFA this summer the odds of his getting a big offer aren't that great. Next year is a different story.

Or what it could mean is that the team most likely to offer Rondo the most money is going to be the Celtics and they won't have to offer him anywhere near what they could have because they won't need to go to the max.

I think eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. Most teams are going to be over the cap for a couple of years due to the lower number and only be able to offer MLE's and LLE's. That means fewer teams will have 2 max contract spots open under the cap. That means some of the expected max guys are going to be taking deals that ordinarily would have gone to the Rondo's and Turkoglu's of the NBA. That means that players like Rondo might have to settle for even less.

If a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year suddenly can afford only one max FA and a $10 million FA I think it more likely they sign a max FA and then wait to see who are the expected max FA guys that didn't get signed to max deals and sign one for $10 million per year than they would to rush into signing a possible future max FA guy like Rondo that might never materialize.

  You could easily be right. But what if a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year don't get LeBron or Wade or Bosh? What do they do with their money then? I agree that eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. I just don't think that will happen next summer. I think that there will be more teams with big cap space than there will be players worth max money. How many teams are trying to set themselves up for next summer? It seems like a lot. There was a big anticipated FA class a few years ago (I think when TD could have been a FA). Most of those players stayed with their teams. I'm pretty sure that some not-so-great players got some good money that summer. Never underestimate the stupidity of an nba gm with lots of cash to spend.

They might have room to add only one big FA.

That FA isn't going to be Rondo.  They can't sell that.

  With all the teams that I hear are positioning themselves for the 2010 offseason I don't think there will be one big FA for each team. If they can't sell signing Rondo, can they sell dumping a bunch of players for cap space and not signing anyone?

[BballTim]

I wonder where exactly a huge drop off like 5% is expected to come from? My guess is most of that number is created from broadcast rights and gate receipts but the NBA already has the national broadcast rights sold and locked in place and most teams rights are likewise already set. It has to be an expected downturn in gate receipts and arena related sales(signage, novelty items, beverage, concessions, etc.) that is being predicted.

But with 2/3 of the teams at 89.4% capacity or higher

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/attendance

  I don't think that general attendence is likely to be a problem, but I think that all of the teams are taking a serious hit in the luxury suite sales. Those are probably big bucks and I think that a lot of corporations cut down on such expenditures over the last 10 months or so.

[nickagneta]

I wonder where exactly a huge drop off like 5% is expected to come from? My guess is most of that number is created from broadcast rights and gate receipts but the NBA already has the national broadcast rights sold and locked in place and most teams rights are likewise already set. It has to be an expected downturn in gate receipts and arena related sales(signage, novelty items, beverage, concessions, etc.) that is being predicted.

But with 2/3 of the teams at 89.4% capacity or higher

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/attendance

  I don't think that general attendence is likely to be a problem, but I think that all of the teams are taking a serious hit in the luxury suite sales. Those are probably big bucks and I think that a lot of corporations cut down on such expenditures over the last 10 months or so.

TP good point.

[action781]

I think Rondo can forget about getting a 10 million a year offer now. 

Not if his agent points at that ridiculous Bargnani contract.

His agent can point all that he wants.  If another team is not offering Rondo that type of money, why should the Celtics?

  If he has a good season then next year will be a great time to be a free agent. Some team who (now) doesn't have room for a max player will start looking for players who could be stars but won't command the max. Teams that cleared a ton of cap space but don't sign anyone will still look at adding to their teams. Kind of like reverse musical chairs.

  I wouldn't count on Rondo not improving. I wouldn't count on the fact that not one team with cap space that doesn't get LeBron or Bosh won't overpay. If Rondo were a RFA this summer the odds of his getting a big offer aren't that great. Next year is a different story.

Or what it could mean is that the team most likely to offer Rondo the most money is going to be the Celtics and they won't have to offer him anywhere near what they could have because they won't need to go to the max.

I think eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. Most teams are going to be over the cap for a couple of years due to the lower number and only be able to offer MLE's and LLE's. That means fewer teams will have 2 max contract spots open under the cap. That means some of the expected max guys are going to be taking deals that ordinarily would have gone to the Rondo's and Turkoglu's of the NBA. That means that players like Rondo might have to settle for even less.

If a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year suddenly can afford only one max FA and a $10 million FA I think it more likely they sign a max FA and then wait to see who are the expected max FA guys that didn't get signed to max deals and sign one for $10 million per year than they would to rush into signing a possible future max FA guy like Rondo that might never materialize.

  You could easily be right. But what if a team like NY that was looking to add 2 max FAs next year don't get LeBron or Wade or Bosh? What do they do with their money then? I agree that eventually lower cap and luxtax numbers are going to severely effect player movement. I just don't think that will happen next summer. I think that there will be more teams with big cap space than there will be players worth max money. How many teams are trying to set themselves up for next summer? It seems like a lot. There was a big anticipated FA class a few years ago (I think when TD could have been a FA). Most of those players stayed with their teams. I'm pretty sure that some not-so-great players got some good money that summer. Never underestimate the stupidity of an nba gm with lots of cash to spend.

They might have room to add only one big FA.

That FA isn't going to be Rondo.  They can't sell that.

  With all the teams that I hear are positioning themselves for the 2010 offseason I don't think there will be one big FA for each team. If they can't sell signing Rondo, can they sell dumping a bunch of players for cap space and not signing anyone?

Completely agree.  I realize there are a lot of FA's, but suppose they all resign with their current teams.  There will be a LOT of teams left with a ton of cash to spend and need to field some type of competitive team to make up for having several noncompetitive years.  They need SOMETHING to sell to their fan base.  If the celts win another title this year, Rondo will be in a great situation.  Sac, NJ, NY, Mia, and Phx will all have a ton money and will all need a point guard.  They could generate quite a bidding war.

I can't agree more with your comment on never underestimating the stupidity of a desperate gm with tons of cash to spend.