Author Topic: Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade  (Read 2897 times)

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Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade
« on: June 23, 2009, 12:09:55 PM »

Offline paintitgreen

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The Detroit rumor has said that the Pistons instantly rejected the Rondo/Ray for Stuckey/Rip/Prince deal, ostensibly because they wouldn't give up their "core" to get Rondo. Yeah, that expensive core of a below .500 team is essential to hold onto - no way would they give up a couple aging past their prime guys guaranteed huge money (the Hamilton extension was a much bigger mistake by Dumars than the Billups trade) for the next 2 to 4 years for a major backcourt upgrade, expiring money and a younger actual point guard (not a masquerading small 2) who actually passes and defends. Seriously, it's not like we don't all know that the core of the Pistons is going to be whomever they target in free agency this year and possibly next, and Stuckey is going to be at best a replaceable third option. And with rumors of Detroit potentially targeting Turkoglu, doesn't it make sense to try to unload Prince, even if he is a good player at decent value for a starter (but terribly overpriced as a bench player)?

From our perspective, we take a backcourt downgrade to get an admittedly great sixth man in Prince. I love Prince as a player, and think he'd help us, but he's guaranteed $20 million plus over the next two seasons. You don't pay that kind of money for a bench player (which I think Detroit realizes). For Detroit he's not a bench player, he's a legit starting small forward, but maybe they want something better for him. If not, and they intend to keep him, I can understand them not wanting to deal him when they'll have to pick up a new 2 guard next year and give Rondo an extension that may be fairly substantial.

In the end, the trade really doesn't work for either team. Except as a rumor. I think this was concocted by both organizations to help their positions in potential future moves. It tells me two things: 1. Detroit wants to trade Hamilton and probably Prince and is open to moving Stuckey, but they want to make out in a major way. 2. Boston doesn't want to trade Rondo, or really Ray, and wants to extend both at reasonable amounts.

For Detroit, the Hamilton extension is bad. But now, they've rejected a trade for an All Star shooting guard with a huge expiring contract and an incredibly promising young point guard who just averaged nearly a triple double over 14 playoff games. That sets the bar high on what they're willing to take for Hamilton and Prince and Stuckey - a superior young talent, an expiring contract, and more. Other teams might look at it and think about giving up similar packages to get Detroit's "core," placing less emphasis on the fact that this core looked flat out bad this season. Detroit may have just driven up the value of their players by making sure the story included a line like "Detroit immediately rejected the deal." It's telling to me that the source for the story was out of the Detroit front office. They want that rumor getting leaked and people thinking the value of Detroit players is higher than it really is. 

For Boston, I don't think they would have pulled the trigger on this deal, much less made the initial offer. What's more, the rumor about Detroit's immediate rejection drives down the trade value of Ray and Rondo, so wouldn't it hurt to let the rumor get out there? Not if you have no intention to trade Ray or Rondo.

Driving down their value helps if you want to extend Ray to a 3 year (keeping the stagger effect of the Big Three)- $22-24 million deal or a 2 year $16-18 million deal and Rondo to a 3-6 year deal starting at $9 million instead of $12 million. The rationale could be "you're not worth those guys from a 38-win team, so what makes you think you're gonna get huge money on the market? Extend now with us and stay with a winning organization that will pay you as much as anybody else and get you more respect." And if it doesn't work, and Rondo and Ray want more money to extend, the Celtics are still setting a high price as far as what they're looking to get in return, even if this trade was "rejected."

In the end, I don't think the trade works for either team, but I think the rumor works for both.
Go Celtics.

Re: Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade
« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2009, 01:11:30 PM »

Offline Cman

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I agree that it could be about extensions.  I would put it simply as DA and the management trying to gauge the value of Rondo and Allen (but particularly Rondo) so they know what a realistic extension value would be.
Celtics fan for life.

Re: Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade
« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2009, 04:23:48 PM »

Offline VPofCommonSense

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I think its very wise of Danny to attempt to drive down Rondo's own percieved value.  One thing to keep in mind is that Rondo's avg playoff triple double was inflated by the fact that KG's 10+ rebs a game were sitting on the bench in a suit.

I love rondo, but he's not in the class of Chris Paul and Deron Williams, so he shouldn't get an extension of that ilk.  he should get paid a little more than someone like Jose Calderon and Devin Harris.

Re: Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade
« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2009, 04:44:30 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I think its very wise of Danny to attempt to drive down Rondo's own percieved value.  One thing to keep in mind is that Rondo's avg playoff triple double was inflated by the fact that KG's 10+ rebs a game were sitting on the bench in a suit.

I love rondo, but he's not in the class of Chris Paul and Deron Williams, so he shouldn't get an extension of that ilk.  he should get paid a little more than someone like Jose Calderon and Devin Harris.

  I think that there's some room in between what Devin Harris and Chris Paul make that Rondo should be able to fit into.

Re: Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2009, 04:51:00 PM »

Offline BrickJames

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TP to the OP.  Great post.  I don't know if I agree with you on everything - but you spelled out your thoughts and defended 'em well enough.  Good stuff.
God bless and good night!


Re: Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade
« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2009, 04:55:13 PM »

Offline Brickowski

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It wasn't designed to drive down Rondo's perceived value.  It was designed to set his value in the current trading market.

Ainge was broadcasting to teams like Charlotte, New Orleans, Milwaukee (and others) that you won't get a Rondo/Ray Allen package with a lowball offer, since this is what the Celtics think that package is worth.

Rondo's market value won't be set until next Spring, when he becomes a free agent.

Re: Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2009, 04:57:46 PM »

Offline BrickJames

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Another good point Owski.  I'm feeling generous today  ;D
God bless and good night!


Re: Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade
« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2009, 06:11:51 PM »

Offline paintitgreen

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Yeah, I agree Brickowski. I should have phrased it as setting the value a little more realistically.

Look, I like Rondo a lot, and have valued him very highly but as I think more about this and other trades, I realize how much I and many others are overvaluing him. The fact is, his inability to shoot is a pretty big liability for a point guard. I like a lot of parts of Rondo's game more than that of Calderon or Harris, but those guys can knock home open shots. Rondo really has to be able to do that; it's not one of those things that are a bonus in a point guard - it's really become a necessity in today's NBA. If he does start hitting that, then he's worth $10 mil a year or more. If he can't, then he's really not worth more than, or even as much as, Calderon and Harris. Something in the $7-8 mil a year neighborhood is more appropriate.

The fact is, he's worth a lot more to us than to other teams because we know how well he fits with a team that is a championship contender now, but he doesn't have the eight figure market value many (including, I'm sure, he and his agent) perceive him to have until he proves that ability to knock down open jumpshots. And he's definitely not a top 3 point guard until he does so.

I just worry that if he has another year like last year where he plays impressively on a very good team, but still doesn't have that outside shot, then he's going to be overpaid on the theory that he has many skills, has shown he can win (even if he is the fourth best player on the team) and if he hits shots, he's worth a ton of money. I don't think Ainge will overpay him and just wants him to realize now that he should resign at the lower value. Maybe even something along the lines of 2 years, $14 million, with a player option for a third and if possible even fourth year at $8 mil per year, so he has some long term guarantees but can still get a bigger payday if he develops those skills to put himself into the upper echelon.

I just don't think he's in the ballpark of a max contract and think he's gonna be looking for a lot more money than he's necessarily worth (with the way the league works now, I think only about 20 guys in the league should make max money, another 30 or so should make $10 mil plus, and honestly, no, I don't think Rondo is definitely one of the 50 best players in the NBA).
Go Celtics.

Re: Detroit Rumor May Be Targeted Toward Extensions not Trade
« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2009, 06:25:59 PM »

Offline Cman

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It wasn't designed to drive down Rondo's perceived value.  It was designed to set his value in the current trading market.

Ainge was broadcasting to teams like Charlotte, New Orleans, Milwaukee (and others) that you won't get a Rondo/Ray Allen package with a lowball offer, since this is what the Celtics think that package is worth.

Rondo's market value won't be set until next Spring, when he becomes a free agent.

I agree that the Cs are not trying to drive down Rondo's perceived value, but I do think they are trying to *gauge* his value in the event they offer him an extension prior to him hitting the RFA market.
Celtics fan for life.