Which free agent is most likely to give a huge discount to win a title?

[nickagneta]

Which free agent is most likely to give a huge discount to win a title? There are a bunch of players available thatare getting older and have never won a ring and there are some others that have won but might like to go out with a ring. By the way I am going on the assumption that any of the players I list would still command a pretty decent contract in today's market.

Jason Kidd
Antonio McDyess
Mike Bibby
Andre Miller
Allen Iverson
Ben Gordon
Linas Kleiza
Shawn Marion
Lamar Odom
Ron Artest
Trevor Ariza
Rasheed Wallace
Drew Gooden
Chris Anderson
Grant Hill
David Lee
Glen Davis
Charlie Villenueva
Anderson Varejao
Rasho Nesterovic
Zaza Pachulia
Marcin Gortat
Hedo Turkoglu

Now by the process of elimination let's see what we get:


Show Me the Money
In this category I think it's fairly obvious we are going to see guys that are hitting free agency for the first time, are restricted free agents, or are the type of guys that money might be more important, not that in a business, in a capitalist society, there's anything wrong with that. I think clearly Ben Gordon is in this category after taking his QO last year. I think Lamar Odom falls in here too after getting his ring this year. Considering that they are restricted and that it makes no sense to give a discount to someone so that your controlling team will match, I'm going to throw in Glen Davis, David Lee, Marcin Gortat, Charlie Villanueva and Linas Kleiza. I think Trevor Ariza knows the Lakers want him back and he desperately wants to return there but also knows he is going to get a big payday so I see him trying to get every penny he can out of the Lakers. I think Zaza Pachulia and Chris Anderson are both too yung to be thinking discounts as they have many more years of ball ahead of them and will be looking for as much as they can get.

It's All About Me
In this category I'm going to put guys who I think are of the opinion that they are worth a whole lot more than they are worth. Hence, as much as they may sign for less, it is going to be due to market conditions and the realization that they just aren't worth what they think they are worth and not because they are looking to jump on board a championship bandwagon. Allen Iverson is going to get a rude awakening this off season. Ditto Shawn Marion. Hedo Turkoglu might get a decent contract but it's not going to be what he thinks it is going to be for.

Interesting, Verrrrrrrrrry Interesting
These are guys that have some chance of doing so and who really could give a discount but one never knows. Ron Artest is a perplexing case. One the one hand he's radioactive. If utilized proper he can do great things but left unchecked he can slowly kill a team. I contemplated putting him in the above category but I think Ron Ron has a burning desire to be considered a winner. He might get offers higher than the MLE but he could take the MLE as a discount and just as easily land in San Antonio or some other contender. Just not sure with Artest. Rasheed Wallace has to be put in here too. Rasheed has already declared his want for $8 million or he's going to retire. And he already has his ring so he might not really care about a discount. But something tells me he might jump on board a window is closing type championship caliber team like Boston or San Antonio for an MLE or less discount for a final ride towards one more ring.

Voted Most Likely To....
I guess everyone else. Jason Kidd could resign in Dallas but I think there's a real good possibility he gives a tem like Cleveland a big discount. Mike Bibby had a nice little bounce back year but I think he realizes that Atlanta is going nowhere and that he really liked playing for a title back in Sacramento. He's got to be a prime discount type guy. Grabt Hill has earned giant gobs of cash while having entire years out of the gae rehabilitating various injuries. He could give the discount. Rasho Nesterovic is a legit 7 footer and those guys always get decent contracts. But he could definitely go lower than he might get elsewhere to play for a ring. And, of course, there's Antonio McDyess who I think is probably the most likely to do it.

Haven't a Clue
Drew Gooden. I just can't figure this guy out. First off he's a heck of a player but out there. I mean waaaaaaay out there. And figuring these type of guys out is tough. He could give A Texas team a discount on the other hand he's just as likely to go for a multi-year MLE for some middle of the road or scrub team. Just not sure. 

[bobdelt]

Jason Kidd - probably, but has a good thing in dallas
Antonio McDyess - probably
Mike Bibby - staying in atlanta most likely
Andre Miller - possbly
Allen Iverson - said he'd retire if he doesnt start
Ben Gordon - money
Linas Kleiza - no idea
Shawn Marion - all about him
Lamar Odom - money/winning stays in LA
Ron Artest - money/all about him
Trevor Ariza - money
Rasheed Wallace - no idea/all about him
Drew Gooden - money?
Chris Anderson - money
Grant Hill - very likely
David Lee - ?
Glen Davis - money
Charlie Villenueva - ?
Anderson Varejao - doesnt matter
Rasho Nesterovic ?
Zaza Pachulia ?
Marcin Gortat - money
Hedo Turkoglu - money

[Brickowski]

Who knows?  It would help to know which agent each player uses, and the degree to which the player's current team wants him back.

Only a few teams have cap space, and none of them are contending teams.  When the available space is used up and when teams have decided who to resign, we'll just have to see which free agents remain standing.

[Who]

Antonio McDyess and/or Grant Hill.

A lot of those players will be one reduced contracts, but it won't be their choice. You can't earn what nobody is willing to pay you.

Lamar Odom and Hedo Turkoglu are the two next players. Both will take discounts to stay with their current teams.

[snively]

Landing Hill and Dice (or Wallace) on the cheap would be an offseason made in heaven. 

BTW, the Lakers are going to have an absolutely obscene payroll if they pay fair value on Ariza and Odom.  They're hovering around 75 mil even if they resign nobody.  Add 5 mil for Ariza and 9-10 for Odom and they'll be at 90 with no money to spare for a solid 1 (Fisher's defensive decline was steep in the post season).

With that kind of luxury tax looming, I don't think the Lakers can afford to keep both Ariza and Odom, unless Odom would be willing to settle for MLE level money, which is ridiculously low for someone of his with that skillset.  It's also hard for me to see Ariza signing for less than the MLE when he's sure to get a boatload of full MLE offers around the league from contenders and rebuilding teams.  The Bynum extension was a risky move.  We'll see if it pays off for them. 

[Fafnir]

Landing Hill and Dice (or Wallace) on the cheap would be an offseason made in heaven. 

BTW, the Lakers are going to have an absolutely obscene payroll if they pay fair value on Ariza and Odom.  They're hovering around 75 mil even if they resign nobody.  Add 5 mil for Ariza and 9-10 for Odom and they'll be at 90 with no money to spare for a solid 1 (Fisher's defensive decline was steep in the post season).

With that kind of luxury tax looming, I don't think the Lakers can afford to keep both Ariza and Odom, unless Odom would be willing to settle for MLE level money, which is ridiculously low for someone of his with that skillset.  It's also hard for me to see Ariza signing for less than the MLE when he's sure to get a boatload of full MLE offers around the league from contenders and rebuilding teams.  The Bynum extension was a risky move.  We'll see if it pays off for them. 

I agree with your analysis both for the C's and the Lakers.

It remains to be seen what happens though, I could see the Lakers keeping both in the post-championship glow though.

[bobdelt]

Landing Hill and Dice (or Wallace) on the cheap would be an offseason made in heaven. 

BTW, the Lakers are going to have an absolutely obscene payroll if they pay fair value on Ariza and Odom.  They're hovering around 75 mil even if they resign nobody.  Add 5 mil for Ariza and 9-10 for Odom and they'll be at 90 with no money to spare for a solid 1 (Fisher's defensive decline was steep in the post season).


The
With that kind of luxury tax looming, I don't think the Lakers can afford to keep both Ariza and Odom, unless Odom would be willing to settle for MLE level money, which is ridiculously low for someone of his with that skillset.  It's also hard for me to see Ariza signing for less than the MLE when he's sure to get a boatload of full MLE offers around the league from contenders and rebuilding teams.  The Bynum extension was a risky move.  We'll see if it pays off for them. 

The lakers are like the Yankees- they have the most revenue, biggest fan base, probably the biggest TV contracts, etc. They've always had a very high payroll (who pays a coach 10 million?) - I can see them still being nearly profitable at a 100 million payroll.

If the yankees can have about 200 million - and in baseball they play twice as many games, want cant the lakers have half the payroll, at 100 million.

[Fafnir]

Landing Hill and Dice (or Wallace) on the cheap would be an offseason made in heaven. 

BTW, the Lakers are going to have an absolutely obscene payroll if they pay fair value on Ariza and Odom.  They're hovering around 75 mil even if they resign nobody.  Add 5 mil for Ariza and 9-10 for Odom and they'll be at 90 with no money to spare for a solid 1 (Fisher's defensive decline was steep in the post season).


The
With that kind of luxury tax looming, I don't think the Lakers can afford to keep both Ariza and Odom, unless Odom would be willing to settle for MLE level money, which is ridiculously low for someone of his with that skillset.  It's also hard for me to see Ariza signing for less than the MLE when he's sure to get a boatload of full MLE offers around the league from contenders and rebuilding teams.  The Bynum extension was a risky move.  We'll see if it pays off for them. 

The lakers are like the Yankees- they have the most revenue, biggest fan base, probably the biggest TV contracts, etc. They've always had a very high payroll (who pays a coach 10 million?) - I can see them still being nearly profitable at a 100 million payroll.

If the yankees can have about 200 million - and in baseball they play twice as many games, want cant the lakers have half the payroll, at 100 million.

Yankee revenues are much much greater than Lakers. Their own TV network alone ensured that.

[Kwhit10]

I'd definitely say Grant Hill has to be the top.  I can see Kidd and Sheed also going that but definitely as much as Hill would.

[nickagneta]

Landing Hill and Dice (or Wallace) on the cheap would be an offseason made in heaven. 

BTW, the Lakers are going to have an absolutely obscene payroll if they pay fair value on Ariza and Odom.  They're hovering around 75 mil even if they resign nobody.  Add 5 mil for Ariza and 9-10 for Odom and they'll be at 90 with no money to spare for a solid 1 (Fisher's defensive decline was steep in the post season).


The
With that kind of luxury tax looming, I don't think the Lakers can afford to keep both Ariza and Odom, unless Odom would be willing to settle for MLE level money, which is ridiculously low for someone of his with that skillset.  It's also hard for me to see Ariza signing for less than the MLE when he's sure to get a boatload of full MLE offers around the league from contenders and rebuilding teams.  The Bynum extension was a risky move.  We'll see if it pays off for them. 

The lakers are like the Yankees- they have the most revenue, biggest fan base, probably the biggest TV contracts, etc. They've always had a very high payroll (who pays a coach 10 million?) - I can see them still being nearly profitable at a 100 million payroll.

If the yankees can have about 200 million - and in baseball they play twice as many games, want cant the lakers have half the payroll, at 100 million.

This is somewhat true but remember that if the Lakers are to resign Kobe, which I do not doubt, then they really can't be giving out big time long term contracts to others. Kobe's next contract is going to be in the order of 6 years and $169 million with a half of those years being in the $30 million or more range per year.

Giving out multiple long term contracts now to Ariza and Odom that go 4-5 years and have escalating deals would possibly castrate this team from making any moves on Gasol when his time comes up and anyone else for that matter as future payroll could be well over $150 million when counting luxury tax.

[Jon]

Antonio McDyess and/or Grant Hill.

A lot of those players will be one reduced contracts, but it won't be their choice. You can't earn what nobody is willing to pay you.

Lamar Odom and Hedo Turkoglu are the two next players. Both will take discounts to stay with their current teams.

I agree about Dice and Hill.  And I think that's all we need.  Hill would form a fearsome rotation with Pierce and Allen at the 2/3.  Plus, when House is in the game, Hill could handle the ball.  Same with Dice and Perk and KG. 

I hope they give us a discount and both end up here. 

[2short]

If hill & mcdyess arrived I would wave goodbye to tony & davis.  I would like both those guys, Hill has slowed on defensive end but what a great calm presence for 2nd team.  Very very smart player, hof if injuries didn't hit.

[jdpapa3]

If we were to lose Rondo (only in a phenomenal deal), I bet Kidd would take a discount. A ring is one of the only things missing on his resume.

[Evantime34]

Which free agent is most likely to give a huge discount to win a title? There are a bunch of players available thatare getting older and have never won a ring and there are some others that have won but might like to go out with a ring. By the way I am going on the assumption that any of the players I list would still command a pretty decent contract in today's market.

Jason Kidd- Yes
Antonio McDyess- Yes
Mike Bibby- Probably not
Andre Miller- Probably
Allen Iverson- Maybe
Ben Gordon- No
Linas Kleiza- Maybe for a year
Shawn Marion- Maybe for a year
Lamar Odom- not for us
Ron Artest- probably not
Trevor Ariza- not for us
Rasheed Wallace- maybe
Drew Gooden- probably
Chris Anderson- maybe
Grant Hill- yes
David Lee- no
Glen Davis- no
Charlie Villenueva- no
Anderson Varejao- not for us
Rasho Nesterovic- yes
Zaza Pachulia- yes
Marcin Gortat- no
Hedo Turkoglu- no

Now by the process of elimination let's see what we get:


Show Me the Money
In this category I think it's fairly obvious we are going to see guys that are hitting free agency for the first time, are restricted free agents, or are the type of guys that money might be more important, not that in a business, in a capitalist society, there's anything wrong with that. I think clearly Ben Gordon is in this category after taking his QO last year. I think Lamar Odom falls in here too after getting his ring this year. Considering that they are restricted and that it makes no sense to give a discount to someone so that your controlling team will match, I'm going to throw in Glen Davis, David Lee, Marcin Gortat, Charlie Villanueva and Linas Kleiza. I think Trevor Ariza knows the Lakers want him back and he desperately wants to return there but also knows he is going to get a big payday so I see him trying to get every penny he can out of the Lakers. I think Zaza Pachulia and Chris Anderson are both too yung to be thinking discounts as they have many more years of ball ahead of them and will be looking for as much as they can get.

It's All About Me
In this category I'm going to put guys who I think are of the opinion that they are worth a whole lot more than they are worth. Hence, as much as they may sign for less, it is going to be due to market conditions and the realization that they just aren't worth what they think they are worth and not because they are looking to jump on board a championship bandwagon. Allen Iverson is going to get a rude awakening this off season. Ditto Shawn Marion. Hedo Turkoglu might get a decent contract but it's not going to be what he thinks it is going to be for.

Interesting, Verrrrrrrrrry Interesting
These are guys that have some chance of doing so and who really could give a discount but one never knows. Ron Artest is a perplexing case. One the one hand he's radioactive. If utilized proper he can do great things but left unchecked he can slowly kill a team. I contemplated putting him in the above category but I think Ron Ron has a burning desire to be considered a winner. He might get offers higher than the MLE but he could take the MLE as a discount and just as easily land in San Antonio or some other contender. Just not sure with Artest. Rasheed Wallace has to be put in here too. Rasheed has already declared his want for $8 million or he's going to retire. And he already has his ring so he might not really care about a discount. But something tells me he might jump on board a window is closing type championship caliber team like Boston or San Antonio for an MLE or less discount for a final ride towards one more ring.

Voted Most Likely To....
I guess everyone else. Jason Kidd could resign in Dallas but I think there's a real good possibility he gives a tem like Cleveland a big discount. Mike Bibby had a nice little bounce back year but I think he realizes that Atlanta is going nowhere and that he really liked playing for a title back in Sacramento. He's got to be a prime discount type guy. Grabt Hill has earned giant gobs of cash while having entire years out of the gae rehabilitating various injuries. He could give the discount. Rasho Nesterovic is a legit 7 footer and those guys always get decent contracts. But he could definitely go lower than he might get elsewhere to play for a ring. And, of course, there's Antonio McDyess who I think is probably the most likely to do it.

Haven't a Clue
Drew Gooden. I just can't figure this guy out. First off he's a heck of a player but out there. I mean waaaaaaay out there. And figuring these type of guys out is tough. He could give A Texas team a discount on the other hand he's just as likely to go for a multi-year MLE for some middle of the road or scrub team. Just not sure. 

[droopdog7]

Jason Kidd - probably, but has a good thing in dallas
Antonio McDyess - probably
Mike Bibby - staying in atlanta most likely
Andre Miller - possbly
Allen Iverson - said he'd retire if he doesnt start
Ben Gordon - money
Linas Kleiza - no idea
Shawn Marion - all about him
Lamar Odom - money/winning stays in LA
Ron Artest - money/all about him
Trevor Ariza - money
Rasheed Wallace - no idea/all about him
Drew Gooden - money?
Chris Anderson - money
Grant Hill - very likely
David Lee - ?
Glen Davis - money
Charlie Villenueva - ?
Anderson Varejao - doesnt matter
Rasho Nesterovic ?
Zaza Pachulia ?
Marcin Gortat - money
Hedo Turkoglu - money

Pretty much spot on.