2010-11 Celtics

[timboup]

From my understandings we have close to 30 million dollars coming off the books after this year. Is it possible that we land a big free agent in the offseason? Or are we better off using Ray Allens contract to land a younger guy who will be around the league for years to come?

[Roy Hobbs]

First, even though we have $30 million in expiring contracts, that doesn't create $30 million in cap room, since we started way above the cap.  For the rest, please read the following, from the FAQs at the top of this forum:

[It] looks like the Celtics only have around $47 million in salaries committed for 2010.  If the cap goes up to around $60 million, does that mean they can spend $13 million on free agents?  Could they then resign Ray Allen with their Bird rights?

No and no.  Surprising to many, free agents continue to count against a team's salary cap until they're either signed or renounced.  This is called a "cap hold".  Free agents essentially count against the cap at a figure greater than their previous salary.

The amount of these cap holds varies significantly; for actual percentages, see here.  For purposes of the Celtics, Ray Allen would have a cap hold in excess of $20 million.  While the team could renounce Ray, if they did so they would only be able to pay him the minimum salary.

Of even more significance is the cap hold of Rajon Rondo.  Even assuming we don't sign Rondo to a large extension, as a restricted free agent, he would carry a cap hold of 300% of his previous salary, or approximately $6.3 million.  Thus, under the above scenario, the Celtics actual cap room would be approximately $6.7 million, rather than the $13 million anticipated.  Further, there would be additional salary slots or cap holds for any other players on the roster.  For instance, teams must have 12 players on their roster; for every player less than 12, the team is charged a "cap charge" equal to the rookie minimum salary ($457,588 in 2010).  Assuming we had only six players under contract, there would be cap charges equal to a minimum of $2,745,528.  That means our cap space is reduced to approximately $3.955 million, an amount significantly less than the mid-level exception (which we would have to renounce if we wanted to use our cap space).  That's assuming we renounce *all* of our free agents other than Giddens and Walker.  If we let Giddens and Walker go, that brings our available cap space to about $5 million, or still less than the amount of the MLE.

In summary:  Assuming a salary cap of $60 million, a roster of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, and Rajon Rondo leaves us with less than $5 million in cap space in 2010, which is less than the amount if we utilized the MLE.  Even worse, reports are suggesting that the cap may be as low as $55 to $57 million in 2010, meaning we'd be right at the salary cap with only four players under contract.

Do we have any chance of signing Lebron or any other big free agents from the Class of 2010?

See above.  The only way we realistically could gain cap space is if Paul Pierce opted out of his contract, and immediately signed with the Celtics for a vastly reduced amount.  (An immediate signing is necessary to eliminate his cap hold).  Working under the overly generous projection of a $60 million cap in 2010, we could gain approximately $25 million in cap space if Pierce re-signed for a minimum salary.  That would be enough to sign Lebron to a max salary deal (which would have a starting salary of between $18 and $19 million per season).

[timboup]

thank you very much, that helped me alot.

[bobdelt]

Wow that is scary.

It rules like those, along with the lottery, that encourage teams to be as bad as possible. I'm sure there is a reason for it, such as signing a free agent before you re-sign your star player coming off his rookie contract, but still.

[BballTim]

Do we have any chance of signing Lebron or any other big free agents from the Class of 2010?

See above.  The only way we realistically could gain cap space is if Paul Pierce opted out of his contract, and immediately signed with the Celtics for a vastly reduced amount.  (An immediate signing is necessary to eliminate his cap hold).  Working under the overly generous projection of a $60 million cap in 2010, we could gain approximately $25 million in cap space if Pierce re-signed for a minimum salary.  That would be enough to sign Lebron to a max salary deal (which would have a starting salary of between $18 and $19 million per season).

  I think any chance we'd have of getting LeBron would be to wait until Paul picked up his option and then do a sign and trade.

[Chris]

BTW Roy, you should send a link of your FAQ to the Big O.  I heard him mention the other day that the C's could have cap space in 2010 if they let Ray expire, and I cringed a bit.  Its frustrating when mainstream media outlets get that stuff wrong (which they normally do), because then every casual fan (or fan that doesn't read Roy's posts) thinks the C's are in the Lebron sweepstakes or soemthing.

[johnnyrondo]

I have a question. Let's say we keep Ray Allen for this upcoming year. When he becomes a FA next Summer, we have his Bird rights I assume, but my question is are there any limitations to a sign and trade with him at that time?

[bobdelt]

I dont think Lebron would consider playing for the C's, unless global warming took off and then he just remembered he grew up in Springfield, not Akron.

[cornbreadsmart]

it really is amazing how our own local media have no clue about c's stuff.

[hpantazo]

First, even though we have $30 million in expiring contracts, that doesn't create $30 million in cap room, since we started way above the cap.  For the rest, please read the following, from the FAQs at the top of this forum:

[It] looks like the Celtics only have around $47 million in salaries committed for 2010.  If the cap goes up to around $60 million, does that mean they can spend $13 million on free agents?  Could they then resign Ray Allen with their Bird rights?

No and no.  Surprising to many, free agents continue to count against a team's salary cap until they're either signed or renounced.  This is called a "cap hold".  Free agents essentially count against the cap at a figure greater than their previous salary.

The amount of these cap holds varies significantly; for actual percentages, see here.  For purposes of the Celtics, Ray Allen would have a cap hold in excess of $20 million.  While the team could renounce Ray, if they did so they would only be able to pay him the minimum salary.

Of even more significance is the cap hold of Rajon Rondo.  Even assuming we don't sign Rondo to a large extension, as a restricted free agent, he would carry a cap hold of 300% of his previous salary, or approximately $6.3 million.  Thus, under the above scenario, the Celtics actual cap room would be approximately $6.7 million, rather than the $13 million anticipated.  Further, there would be additional salary slots or cap holds for any other players on the roster.  For instance, teams must have 12 players on their roster; for every player less than 12, the team is charged a "cap charge" equal to the rookie minimum salary ($457,588 in 2010).  Assuming we had only six players under contract, there would be cap charges equal to a minimum of $2,745,528.  That means our cap space is reduced to approximately $3.955 million, an amount significantly less than the mid-level exception (which we would have to renounce if we wanted to use our cap space).  That's assuming we renounce *all* of our free agents other than Giddens and Walker.  If we let Giddens and Walker go, that brings our available cap space to about $5 million, or still less than the amount of the MLE.

In summary:  Assuming a salary cap of $60 million, a roster of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, and Rajon Rondo leaves us with less than $5 million in cap space in 2010, which is less than the amount if we utilized the MLE.  Even worse, reports are suggesting that the cap may be as low as $55 to $57 million in 2010, meaning we'd be right at the salary cap with only four players under contract.

Do we have any chance of signing Lebron or any other big free agents from the Class of 2010?

See above.  The only way we realistically could gain cap space is if Paul Pierce opted out of his contract, and immediately signed with the Celtics for a vastly reduced amount.  (An immediate signing is necessary to eliminate his cap hold).  Working under the overly generous projection of a $60 million cap in 2010, we could gain approximately $25 million in cap space if Pierce re-signed for a minimum salary.  That would be enough to sign Lebron to a max salary deal (which would have a starting salary of between $18 and $19 million per season).

so your saying there IS a chance! Hmm...