Rajon Rondo,,,an attempt at a rational, objective evaluation of the player

[nickagneta]

Okay, so I am a huge Rondo shill and always have been because I just see unlimited potential and always have. But let's see if I, one of the bigger Rondo fans that sees everything through Green colored glasses when it comes to Rondo, can look at things objectively.

Rondo's assets:

• The man is in unreal physical condition and obviously, from looking at him, takes pride in this. To me, that is huge. Having a basketball player that is also an athlete and keeps themselves in peak physical condition is a plus in my book.
• Could he have a better body type for someone who is going to handle the ball for you on offense? Long arms, huge hands. Great elevation on the jump. Fast and quick.
• He might be one of the fastest people on the planet while dribbling a basketball. He is an possession of a great first step and explosive speed and when he gets into the open floor is a jet.
• His ball handling skills are exceptional though his cross over move leaves something to be desired
• His passing skills are great and he is not in love with just passing the ball through the air. He is one of the better bounce passers, for a PG, in the league
• He has all the skills to be a great defender, which is different than saying he is a great defender.
• He is fearless going to the basket, almost to a fault.
• Simply put, he is one of the best rebounding guards in the league and has enhanced numbers here because Doc Rivers, at least during the playoffs, utilized him in the defensive sets to back off his men and wander around the free throw line. He would then use his speed and jumping ability to make a fast move to get defensive rebounds and start fast breaks.
• He has a confidence and take charge personality that will eventually translate into being a great floor general.
• He plays better the better the competition. Against the best PGs in the league, he is seldom outplayed.

Now his liabilities:

• The shot is awful. His release point is all over the place and he is constantly putting way too much left hand into the shot as evidenced by just how far off the shot can be left to right. Practice and good coaching can change this but it will take a while and this alone will keep him from being a top three PG in this league. When he can consistently hit 42% or more of his jump shots and hit 75% or more of his FTs, then we can think about putting him in the Deron, Paul, and eventually, Rose category.
• As stated above, he plays to the level of his competition. He should dominate lesser PGs and yet doesn't. He needs to bring the consistency every game, every minute.
• The above problem goes to a lack of mental preparation and readiness that I hate. He is, however, just 23 years old and this can be chalked up to a lack of maturity but I hope and pray it is not an inherent flaw in his personality.
• The above also needs to call into question his confidence which, could also be a personality flaw of hubris and arrogance. Many times these things can lead to a lack of motivation and a lack of needing to improve and practice and to take things as seriously as they need be taken. It can also lead to an inability to get along with others and to take orders and criticism, whether it be constructive or not. This, unfortunately, does appear to be a character flaw of his. Let's hope he can look in the mirror and change this. Often adversity can change this in a person. All too often, people like this never change and never reach their full potential. It can, once again, be chalked up to immaturity, but in this case, I don't think it is.
• He is weak on his left hand when going to the basket. He often correctly figures that going to the left side of the basket is the correct move but too often, well, almost always, relies on a right hand lay in with spin rather than a left hand lay in. This, though not a major problem, should be worked on.
• He still, way too often for my taste, leaves his feet not knowing what he is going to do with the ball.
• His confidence in his abilities often leads to his forcing way too many passes that just are not there. What is terrible about this flaw in his game is that his confidence is often soaring when the team is up and these forces come at a time when simpler plays would lead to points. This often causes turnovers and allowing teams back into games. This is a bigger problem than I think a lot of people think.
• His defensive intensity and his consistency in bringing it sucks. As I said above, he has all the skills to be a great defender, but this year, all too often was a huge liability on defense in the half court set. I want to stipulate the half court set because I think his pressure during full court presses, his defense on in bounds passes, his defense on half court traps, and his pressuring of the ball up the floor are great. But most defense is played in the half court and his defense fighting through the pick and roll and his lack of concentration on his assignment and more on other issues(playing passing lanes, trying to help down, looking to rebound a possible shot) lead him astray and allows his men to take advantage of him. His gambling on knock aways and lack of effort in keeping men in front of him and reliance on the big man help is simply atrocious.
• He lacks a professionalism that comes with either maturity or character. I don't know which he is lacking. But consistency, reliability, tardiness, and keeping one's head in pressure situations are a part of this. I say he grows into being a great professional but right now it is hurting him and his game.
• He allows his emotions to get the best of him and appears to have trouble controlling his temper. Don't get me wrong he isn't an emotional basket case ala Big Baby. He just has a problem with certain emotions like anger and frustration. Again, I hope it is maturity but it could be a character flaw.
• He leaves his feet going to the basket way too far from the basket and it forces him to take that God awful floater that he just can't hit consistently. It is a much tougher shot than it looks, especially when taking it at the speeds he is often taking it. I think he should either spend an entire summer working on just this shot or take it out of his game completely. Working on pulling up off the dribble and shooting from within 15 feet would probably be a more reliable weapon as he can get to where he wants and often has the ability to out jump his competition.

I hope I covered everything and speculated on as little as possible. I am not going to speculate on such things as why he ate what when he did or why he showed up a half hour late or why he fought with a certain coach or player. I observed and made my determinations based on what I saw in his game.

I think it is irresponsible for any of us to speculate as to what Danny's, KG's, Doc's, or anyone else's feelings are on him, especially from just a one or two sentence quote from a coach or player or manager that might be about a certain subject and not specifically on their total evaluation of Rondo. Too often that type of stuff is more about the moment and not about the person as a whole.

All that given, the fact that we basically have him in our control at a controlled price for the next year or two is huge as, for what he is going to be making in that time, he is a bargain. The tricky part comes in determining whether his non basketball issues that impact his game are maturity problems or character flaws. If maturity, we should see a bunch of that disappear this year as he will be 24 and into his 4th year in the league. The fourth year is often the year that stars will blossom in. So, we will see.

If it appears that Rondo's issues aren't a maturity issue then Danny is going to have a problem deciding whether, in a Manny Ramirez type situation, his contributions outweigh his attitudinal problems and whether he will be worth the big investment. If they are, then next year would seem like a great time to move him. Moving him sooner without having these questions answered while still having him under contractual control for light money, is just dumb.

People can say he shouldn't be untouchable but to have him in control at minor money and not be 100% certain as to where his game is going to go over the next year or two is just stupid. For this off season at least, he should not even be thought about being traded. It is way too big a risk to possibly trade away one of the future best PGs in the league when you have them playing for just $2 million for the next year and maybe $3 million the year after that while not being 10000% sure that his liabilities can't be corrected.

[Fan from VT]

Very well thought out post. Lots of work.


I love Rondo, but here's my main fear about him in the long run:
He needs to be running at a super high level of athleticism in order to be effective. In order for him to be a dangerous offensive weapon, he has to rely on speed and throwing his body around; I'm worried about what happens when he inevitably gets nicked up, it's not like he can fall back on a jumper or post moves like Billups or anything. But that's more down the road, and why you might think about trading him at his peak in about 6 years, seemingly too early but before his athleticism goes. Remember that Iverson is a freak of nature, not the norm.


Also, I think his defense slipped this year because he was carrying much more of the offensive load and it's simply exhausting to do both.

[CoachBo]

Okay, so I am a huge Rondo shill and always have been because I just see unlimited potential and always have. But let's see if I, one of the bigger Rondo fans that sees everything through Green colored glasses when it comes to Rondo, can look at things objectively.

Rondo's assets:

• The man is in unreal physical condition and obviously, from looking at him, takes pride in this. To me, that is huge. Having a basketball player that is also an athlete and keeps themselves in peak physical condition is a plus in my book.
• Could he have a better body type for someone who is going to handle the ball for you on offense? Long arms, huge hands. Great elevation on the jump. Fast and quick.
• He might be one of the fastest people on the planet while dribbling a basketball. He is an possession of a great first step and explosive speed and when he gets into the open floor is a jet.
• His ball handling skills are exceptional though his cross over move leaves something to be desired
• His passing skills are great and he is not in love with just passing the ball through the air. He is one of the better bounce passers, for a PG, in the league
• He has all the skills to be a great defender, which is different than saying he is a great defender.
• He is fearless going to the basket, almost to a fault.
• Simply put, he is one of the best rebounding guards in the league and has enhanced numbers here because Doc Rivers, at least during the playoffs, utilized him in the defensive sets to back off his men and wander around the free throw line. He would then use his speed and jumping ability to make a fast move to get defensive rebounds and start fast breaks.
• He has a confidence and take charge personality that will eventually translate into being a great floor general.
• He plays better the better the competition. Against the best PGs in the league, he is seldom outplayed.

Now his liabilities:

• The shot is awful. His release point is all over the place and he is constantly putting way too much left hand into the shot as evidenced by just how far off the shot can be left to right. Practice and good coaching can change this but it will take a while and this alone will keep him from being a top three PG in this league. When he can consistently hit 42% or more of his jump shots and hit 75% or more of his FTs, then we can think about putting him in the Deron, Paul, and eventually, Rose category.
• As stated above, he plays to the level of his competition. He should dominate lesser PGs and yet doesn't. He needs to bring the consistency every game, every minute.
• The above problem goes to a lack of mental preparation and readiness that I hate. He is, however, just 23 years old and this can be chalked up to a lack of maturity but I hope and pray it is not an inherent flaw in his personality.
• The above also needs to call into question his confidence which, could also be a personality flaw of hubris and arrogance. Many times these things can lead to a lack of motivation and a lack of needing to improve and practice and to take things as seriously as they need be taken. It can also lead to an inability to get along with others and to take orders and criticism, whether it be constructive or not. This, unfortunately, does appear to be a character flaw of his. Let's hope he can look in the mirror and change this. Often adversity can change this in a person. All too often, people like this never change and never reach their full potential. It can, once again, be chalked up to immaturity, but in this case, I don't think it is.
• He is weak on his left hand when going to the basket. He often correctly figures that going to the left side of the basket is the correct move but too often, well, almost always, relies on a right hand lay in with spin rather than a left hand lay in. This, though not a major problem, should be worked on.
• He still, way too often for my taste, leaves his feet not knowing what he is going to do with the ball.
• His confidence in his abilities often leads to his forcing way too many passes that just are not there. What is terrible about this flaw in his game is that his confidence is often soaring when the team is up and these forces come at a time when simpler plays would lead to points. This often causes turnovers and allowing teams back into games. This is a bigger problem than I think a lot of people think.
• His defensive intensity and his consistency in bringing it sucks. As I said above, he has all the skills to be a great defender, but this year, all too often was a huge liability on defense in the half court set. I want to stipulate the half court set because I think his pressure during full court presses, his defense on in bounds passes, his defense on half court traps, and his pressuring of the ball up the floor are great. But most defense is played in the half court and his defense fighting through the pick and roll and his lack of concentration on his assignment and more on other issues(playing passing lanes, trying to help down, looking to rebound a possible shot) lead him astray and allows his men to take advantage of him. His gambling on knock aways and lack of effort in keeping men in front of him and reliance on the big man help is simply atrocious.
• He lacks a professionalism that comes with either maturity or character. I don't know which he is lacking. But consistency, reliability, tardiness, and keeping one's head in pressure situations are a part of this. I say he grows into being a great professional but right now it is hurting him and his game.
• He allows his emotions to get the best of him and appears to have trouble controlling his temper. Don't get me wrong he isn't an emotional basket case ala Big Baby. He just has a problem with certain emotions like anger and frustration. Again, I hope it is maturity but it could be a character flaw.
• He leaves his feet going to the basket way too far from the basket and it forces him to take that God awful floater that he just can't hit consistently. It is a much tougher shot than it looks, especially when taking it at the speeds he is often taking it. I think he should either spend an entire summer working on just this shot or take it out of his game completely. Working on pulling up off the dribble and shooting from within 15 feet would probably be a more reliable weapon as he can get to where he wants and often has the ability to out jump his competition.

I hope I covered everything and speculated on as little as possible. I am not going to speculate on such things as why he ate what when he did or why he showed up a half hour late or why he fought with a certain coach or player. I observed and made my determinations based on what I saw in his game.

I think it is irresponsible for any of us to speculate as to what Danny's, KG's, Doc's, or anyone else's feelings are on him, especially from just a one or two sentence quote from a coach or player or manager that might be about a certain subject and not specifically on their total evaluation of Rondo. Too often that type of stuff is more about the moment and not about the person as a whole.

All that given, the fact that we basically have him in our control at a controlled price for the next year or two is huge as, for what he is going to be making in that time, he is a bargain. The tricky part comes in determining whether his non basketball issues that impact his game are maturity problems or character flaws. If maturity, we should see a bunch of that disappear this year as he will be 24 and into his 4th year in the league. The fourth year is often the year that stars will blossom in. So, we will see.

If it appears that Rondo's issues aren't a maturity issue then Danny is going to have a problem deciding whether, in a Manny Ramirez type situation, his contributions outweigh his attitudinal problems and whether he will be worth the big investment. If they are, then next year would seem like a great time to move him. Moving him sooner without having these questions answered while still having him under contractual control for light money, is just dumb.

People can say he shouldn't be untouchable but to have him in control at minor money and not be 100% certain as to where his game is going to go over the next year or two is just stupid. For this off season at least, he should not even be thought about being traded. It is way too big a risk to possibly trade away one of the future best PGs in the league when you have them playing for just $2 million for the next year and maybe $3 million the year after that while not being 10000% sure that his liabilities can't be corrected.

Well done and a TP for you on an issue that has been sorely lacking in that kind of objectivity.

Rondo has - right now - substantial strengths and substantial weaknesses in his game. As I've said before, there's nothing in his weaknesses that can't be overcome if he approaches them correctly.

Don't see any particular need to trade him right now, unless, of course, there's something none of us know to add to the list on the downside, such as a max contract demand right now.

[housecall]

I agree that its no rush to trade him at the price we got him for.He has played well for his yrs.in the NBA.Im not his biggest fan but i agree with your points in why we should slow down on thinking about dumping him.Also who is out there ready to step into the role of a possible championship level at the pg,thats available?

I feel once KG comes back a lot of the defensive holes will be plugged.Rondo seems to play better when KG is on the floor.I could see the change from the start of the Bulls series in Rondo's having to change his game,why because he is use to KG backing him up on the help D and being there if his man got by him.I think Rondo will be fine once the original starters are all back on th floor at the same time.

[nickagneta]

I agree that its no rush to trade him at the price we got him for.He has played well for his yrs.in the NBA.Im not his biggest fan but i agree with your points in why we should slow down on thinking about dumping him.Also who is out there ready to step into the role of a possible championship level at the pg,thats available?

I feel once KG comes back a lot of the defensive holes will be plugged.Rondo seems to play better when KG is on the floor.I could see the change from the start of the Bulls series in Rondo's having to change his game,why because he is use to KG backing him up on the help D and being there if his man got by him.I think Rondo will be fine once the original starters are all back on th floor at the same time.

I don't think that Rondo plays better defense when KG is in the game as so much that his weaknesses in the half court defense are covered up by KG's tremendous help defense. Rondo can and has played great man and team defense at times. One for instance is his defense in game 1 of the Orlando series after they fell way back. His defense in the second half of that game was spectacular. Another example is game6 versus LA in the Finals. This is the type of defense he needs to bring every game.

Now, bringing that type of defensive intensity every minute of every game is exhausting and will cost him in his offensive efficiency. So it really is going to be up to Doc and Rondo to figure out when to turn it up a notch and be the defensive wiz or when to ratchet it down and allow him to be the offensive catalyst. I refuse to believe that he will be able to expend the energy he does to be 100% effective on both ends of the floor like many would like. If he does, don't expect 40 MPG.

Hopefully he can find that happy medium that will make him maximize all his abilities to their fullest.

[cordobes]

Excellent post. TP.

I don't have much to add, except that I think his defence is superb except for those games/possessions where he's playing a bit lazy. I believe much of his gambling, even if not all, was designed by the coaching staff (maybe because that's what I'd do if I was them). He frequently gets caught on picks and doesn't recover as fast as he could, but his hands are so quick and his arms so long that only opponents with nerves of steel try to do anything.

Good point about his drives; it's a pity that he drives left so many times and then tries to score with his right hand. He's still so good (IMO, it was the part of his game that improved more through last season) that it becomes minor.

The shooting is definitely his major weakness. Personally I believe that many of his other flaws are a consequence of it and would disappear if he was able to start knocking down those jump-shots consistently.

[JBcat]

Great post TP.

  I'm being nitpicky but his body type could be a little better.  He doesn't have the strength of say a Rose where he could post up a little as well or even say a young GP however he still has an excellent body type for a PG.   A PG that can post up is a great attribute to have.  

Also I would say he has very good but not great  elevation on the jump.  Remember that block by Rose on Rondo in the first round?  A younger Baron Davis, Nate Robinson, Dee Brown early in his career I would consider great elevators on the jump for point guards and Rondo is a notch below although still very good but doesn't finish a drive with a slam all that often.  

[nickagneta]

Great post TP.

  I'm being nitpicky but his body type could be a little better.  He doesn't have the strength of say a Rose where he could post up a little as well or even say a young GP however he still has an excellent body type for a PG.   A PG that can post up is a great attribute to have.  

Also I would say he has very good but not great  elevation on the jump.  Remember that block by Rose on Rondo in the first round?  A younger Baron Davis, Nate Robinson, Dee Brown early in his career I would consider great elevators on the jump for point guards and Rondo is a notch below although still very good but doesn't finish a drive with a slam all that often.  

I submit the following as evidence of his amazing elavation:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dq8OSDeOhA0


I also wish I could find the blocked shot Rondo had earlier this season where he came from the weak side and skyed for this unbelievable blocked shot over the middle on someone but I can't remember the details of the game to look it up.

[pengaloo]

Really great post. Not much to add, but that one of his biggest assets is that he has the desire to be the best. That kind of competitiveness and inner drive will get him places.

Rondo is also very crafty. I forget which game, but it was down to the wire, with the C's barely holding onto the lead, and he was inbounding the ball. Instead of passing it to a team mate, he shaved seconds off the clock by bouncing the ball off somebody's foot with the ball angled perfectly to go out of bounds. He's also made a bunch of clutch plays where he gets the rebound nearly out of bounds but bounces it off the opposing team's player to regain possession.

I somewhat agree with JBcat's post about Rondo's elevation. While he can jump ridiculously high (Rondo wrote that he has a 42" vertical when someone asked about it in a comment on his blog), his elevation on his jump shot is not great. I've seen him practice on the court before games and was surprised that he just barely leaves the ground.

[BballTim]

Great post TP.

  I'm being nitpicky but his body type could be a little better.  He doesn't have the strength of say a Rose where he could post up a little as well or even say a young GP however he still has an excellent body type for a PG.   A PG that can post up is a great attribute to have.  

Also I would say he has very good but not great  elevation on the jump.  Remember that block by Rose on Rondo in the first round?  A younger Baron Davis, Nate Robinson, Dee Brown early in his career I would consider great elevators on the jump for point guards and Rondo is a notch below although still very good but doesn't finish a drive with a slam all that often.  

  It's possible his elevation was a little off in the 58th minute he played that game after playing 55 and 49 in the previous two.

[Roy Hobbs]

Really excellent job, nick.

[JBcat]

Granted that is a nice dunk Nick but this what I'm talking about when it comes to dunking in traffic and over someone.   I don't think Rondo could come close to being in a dunk contest.  I've seen it maybe twice with Rondo dunking over someone with the one over Maxiell being a memorable one (I was at that game) but these couple dunks from Baron Davis takes it up a notch.  Not sure if Rondo has this in him and I'm not saying he is not a very good leaper I'm just not sure I categorize his as great and I love Rondo. 

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMnh9u6QzfY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01q8A6pqps

BballTim, good point that dunk was at the end of a long game but how many dunks have we seen from Rondo say in the first quarter of games.  I would say not many compared to great leapers from PGs in the past.  Not sure if there are any stats out there for it.

[housecall]

I agree that its no rush to trade him at the price we got him for.He has played well for his yrs.in the NBA.Im not his biggest fan but i agree with your points in why we should slow down on thinking about dumping him.Also who is out there ready to step into the role of a possible championship level at the pg,thats available?

I feel once KG comes back a lot of the defensive holes will be plugged.Rondo seems to play better when KG is on the floor.I could see the change from the start of the Bulls series in Rondo's having to change his game,why because he is use to KG backing him up on the help D and being there if his man got by him.I think Rondo will be fine once the original starters are all back on th floor at the same time.

I don't think that Rondo plays better defense when KG is in the game as so much that his weaknesses in the half court defense are covered up by KG's tremendous help defense. Rondo can and has played great man and team defense at times. One for instance is his defense in game 1 of the Orlando series after they fell way back. His defense in the second half of that game was spectacular. Another example is game6 versus LA in the Finals. This is the type of defense he needs to bring every game.

Now, bringing that type of defensive intensity every minute of every game is exhausting and will cost him in his offensive efficiency. So it really is going to be up to Doc and Rondo to figure out when to turn it up a notch and be the defensive wiz or when to ratchet it down and allow him to be the offensive catalyst. I refuse to believe that he will be able to expend the energy he does to be 100% effective on both ends of the floor like many would like. If he does, don't expect 40 MPG.

Hopefully he can find that happy medium that will make him maximize all his abilities to their fullest.

Maybe you misunderstood what i meant...Rondo included with the rest of the starters will be better when KG returns defensively.The team defense is what i was really speaking about,not so much as Rondo indiviually.Also,i feel Rondo was playing hurt a good portion of the postseason and had to expend a lot of energy on both ends of the court,probably moreso with KG's absence.

[BballTim]

Granted that is a nice dunk Nick but this what I'm talking about when it comes to dunking in traffic and over someone.   I don't think Rondo could come close to being in a dunk contest.  I've seen it maybe twice with Rondo dunking over someone with the one over Maxiell being a memorable one (I was at that game) but these couple dunks from Baron Davis takes it up a notch.  Not sure if Rondo has this in him and I'm not saying he is not a very good leaper I'm just not sure I categorize his as great and I love Rondo. 

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMnh9u6QzfY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01q8A6pqps

BballTim, good point that dunk was at the end of a long game but how many dunks have we seen from Rondo say in the first quarter of games.  I would say not many compared to great leapers from PGs in the past.  Not sure if there are any stats out there for it.

  Honestly, I wouldn't want to see Rondo jumping much higher, considering the amount of time he ends up on the floor when he drives in.

[JBcat]

Granted that is a nice dunk Nick but this what I'm talking about when it comes to dunking in traffic and over someone.   I don't think Rondo could come close to being in a dunk contest.  I've seen it maybe twice with Rondo dunking over someone with the one over Maxiell being a memorable one (I was at that game) but these couple dunks from Baron Davis takes it up a notch.  Not sure if Rondo has this in him and I'm not saying he is not a very good leaper I'm just not sure I categorize his as great and I love Rondo. 

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMnh9u6QzfY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01q8A6pqps

BballTim, good point that dunk was at the end of a long game but how many dunks have we seen from Rondo say in the first quarter of games.  I would say not many compared to great leapers from PGs in the past.  Not sure if there are any stats out there for it.

  Honestly, I wouldn't want to see Rondo jumping much higher, considering the amount of time he ends up on the floor when he drives in.

Well I think a large part of that is due to a wiry frame and when he jumps into the trees no matter how high or little he jumps he is going to land on the ground a fair amount of time.  Think Iverson landing on the floor a ton after drives despite not being one of the games top jumpers for PGs.  Baron Davis by contrast I think jumps higher but doesn't nearly hit the floor as much because of his frame. 

Don't get me wrong I still think Rondo is a very good leaper I just think people throw around the word great too much. 

I do agree with Nick Rondo has great speed with the basketball.