how about Ariza?

[Vermont Green]

The lakers are paying thier big 3 around $52M (compared to the C's B-3 at around $55M) plus they are paying Walton, Fisher, Vujacic, and Morrison all around $5M each.  I don't see how they can afford to pay either Odom or Ariza.  Of course that doesn't mean the C's can afford Ariza either.  I think we will be shopping more in the Matt Barnes section of the clearance rack for our back-up 3.

[Chris]

I'd love to have Ariza, but I think the full MLE is the basement as far as his possible money goes.

This guy is a starter for a conference finals team (assuming they lose, which they will, because God hates Kobe.), I think he's got Tayshaun Prince money in his future.

I agree.  I wouldn't be surprised at one of the few teams with cap space throw some money at him, or he resigns with the Lakers for 6 or 7 million per (I wouldn't be surprised if they also try to unload a contract or two this offseason to make room to resign him). 

He may have been a second round pick, but he was always a blue-chip talent.  He just entered the draft too early, without proving himself in college first.  Now he is starting to show his potential, and he keeps getting better.

I think the Prince comparison is pretty apt...except that he is already much stronger than Prince.  I think in a couple of years, he could be seeing significant minutes at the PF spot, which will only make him more valuable.

[libermaniac]

oops, may have answered my own question - hat tip to Roy Hobbes

sounds like Ariza hates the Celtics

http://www.bothteamsplayedhard.net/2009/02/04/kevin-mchale-sickens-trevor-ariza/

Ya, that's all lip service.  If the C's gave him a competitive bid, the chance to win a ring would trump any childhood hatred he had for the C's. 

He doesn't have a chance at a ring re-signing with the Lakers?!

Come on people. I know we are all die-hard C's fans on here, but we aren't the only team with a very good chance at a ring. We may not even be the team with the best chance at a ring. Let's not let our green tinted glasses cloud our objectivity like we are the only game in town here.

I should clarify.  I didn't mean, all things being equal, he'd choose the Celtics over the Lakers.  My only point was that he'd choose the Celtics for the right offer ... his petty "hatred" of the C's wouldn't interfere with that.  Like Johnny Damon with the Yanks.  I'm sure Pierce "hated" the C's before he was drafted by them.

[Brendan]

The question is: who can sign him for more than the MLE. The LAL can sign him for whatever (bird rights) or sign and trade him. Otherwise, let's say he wants a bad economy version of Tay's deal that goes 5 years and runs from 7 to 11 per year over the course. What team had 7 million in cap room now and is willing to spend it on Ariza, rather than waiting a year? Ariza is talented, but he's playing next to Kobe and I think teams are a bit wiser (or stingier) than in past years because of the economy.

So let's guess his options are full MLE at club of his chosing, resign with LAL for a bit over the MLE, or have his agent work out a S&T with LAL and another club. I can see both LAL deals falling through, LAL will basically need a dance partner that can send back a viable championship piece and have cap room. But again who has cap room? As for resigning with LAL - let's say they find a way to dump Morrison and Famar, they still are heavy at the wings with Walton and Sasha playing with Kobe - and don't they need PG help more? (I doubt they trade Fischer b/c of loyalty and other teams not wanting him.)

Anyways - if all that's left for Ariza is the MLE or a slighly sweetend MLE type deal from LAL - I could see him bolting. Then the question is where does he go? Boston would mean coming off the bench, but Ray and PP aren't long for the NBA at this point, taking a max 3 year deal at the MLE, and hoping to cash in when Bird rights kick in could be a good plan. MAybe even get an option on the third year in case the FA market is better after the 2010 class passes through.

CLE - LBJ sits right in his way. ORL has a host of wing guys, but could actually still use him, and Turk could opt out. San Antonio would be a nice fit, he's not as much of a shooter, but he'd probably be their starting SF.

I think he definitely has options and the C's will be in a position that they can only offer him what others do, so intangibles come into play - does he really hate BOS? How much would being on a winner come into play? He'd have a chance to be the guy stopping LBJ next year, and rubbing it in on his former ORL and LAL teams, who knows.

[WedmanIsMyHero]

Even if not Ariza, the Celtics need a player *like* Ariza.  Who else in that category (athletic swing player) is coming on the market?

[Chris]

The question is: who can sign him for more than the MLE. The LAL can sign him for whatever (bird rights) or sign and trade him. Otherwise, let's say he wants a bad economy version of Tay's deal that goes 5 years and runs from 7 to 11 per year over the course. What team had 7 million in cap room now and is willing to spend it on Ariza, rather than waiting a year? Ariza is talented, but he's playing next to Kobe and I think teams are a bit wiser (or stingier) than in past years because of the economy.

So let's guess his options are full MLE at club of his chosing, resign with LAL for a bit over the MLE, or have his agent work out a S&T with LAL and another club. I can see both LAL deals falling through, LAL will basically need a dance partner that can send back a viable championship piece and have cap room. But again who has cap room? As for resigning with LAL - let's say they find a way to dump Morrison and Famar, they still are heavy at the wings with Walton and Sasha playing with Kobe - and don't they need PG help more? (I doubt they trade Fischer b/c of loyalty and other teams not wanting him.)

Anyways - if all that's left for Ariza is the MLE or a slighly sweetend MLE type deal from LAL - I could see him bolting. Then the question is where does he go? Boston would mean coming off the bench, but Ray and PP aren't long for the NBA at this point, taking a max 3 year deal at the MLE, and hoping to cash in when Bird rights kick in could be a good plan. MAybe even get an option on the third year in case the FA market is better after the 2010 class passes through.

CLE - LBJ sits right in his way. ORL has a host of wing guys, but could actually still use him, and Turk could opt out. San Antonio would be a nice fit, he's not as much of a shooter, but he'd probably be their starting SF.

I think he definitely has options and the C's will be in a position that they can only offer him what others do, so intangibles come into play - does he really hate BOS? How much would being on a winner come into play? He'd have a chance to be the guy stopping LBJ next year, and rubbing it in on his former ORL and LAL teams, who knows.

Why are you assuming he will only go to a contender?  I think there is a much better chance that he gets a bigger contract from a bottom-feeder. 

Some teams under the cap that could make runs at him are:

Detroit - They may be able to sign him for significantly less than Prince, and get some good pieces for Prince in a trade, so it could make sense.

Minnesota - If they can dump Mike Miller on a team under the cap, they could bring him on.

Sacramento - They have a young SF in Greene, but Ariza would be a big talent boost for that team in general. 

Toronto - If he is willing to play in Canada, he would be a great fit for their run and gun system, replacing Marion for half the money.

[ToppersBsktball10]

It'd be an amazing pickup he's only 24 but he hates the Celtics so I doubt it'll happen.

[Brendan]

I'm not. I'm just assuming few teams will want to spend cap space on him, rather than trying to build even more cap space for next year.

Those clubs are better off spending less and making more OR signing top tier guys with cap space. Ariza seems like the guy good enough to take your money, but not carry your team. Like I said this analysis rests on team being gun shy spending money because of the economy "yay - it is a vengeful economy"

[indeedproceed]

Kelly Dwyer (not that he's a money guru or anything) just said that Ariza was worth about the full MLE.