Should the Celtics rebuild? (split)

[winsomme]

You don't rebuild when you have far and away the best starting 5 in bball, assuming everyone is healthy. We need better bench players and I think ownership will realize this and add a couple of quality players, resign Marbury and we are ready for anybody. We do need an athletic forward who can guard both Lebron and Kobe and we need a backup big.

totally agree. we talked a lot about not wanting to over spend on bench players, but one of my big sticking point questions was always: what is the cost of lost playoff games?

how much money is lost on this team not making the ECF and/or the Finals?

Financial considerations aren't only limited to how much you pay players. lost playoff revenue is also something to think about.

as far as personnel goes, i totally agree. a big wing and a backup big.

[vinnie]

My favorite thing about these forums are all of the "medical experts" who have the straight dope on KG's injury. Also, I am glad Brick is here, because he makes me look like Mr. Positive. I bet Brick has never seen a half-full glass in his life --  

[Casperian]

totally agree. we talked a lot about not wanting to over spend on bench players, but one of my big sticking point questions was always: what is the cost of lost playoff games?

how much money is lost on this team not making the ECF and/or the Finals?

Financial considerations aren't only limited to how much you pay players. lost playoff revenue is also something to think about.

Not to mention the worldwide merchandising revenue a champion with such star-power generates.

[winsomme]

totally agree. we talked a lot about not wanting to over spend on bench players, but one of my big sticking point questions was always: what is the cost of lost playoff games?

how much money is lost on this team not making the ECF and/or the Finals?

Financial considerations aren't only limited to how much you pay players. lost playoff revenue is also something to think about.

Not to mention the worldwide merchandising revenue a champion with such star-power generates.

Totally!

how much revenue does this franchise take in as repeat Champs from merchandising to televisions to advertising, etc...?

[Roy Hobbs]

totally agree. we talked a lot about not wanting to over spend on bench players, but one of my big sticking point questions was always: what is the cost of lost playoff games?

how much money is lost on this team not making the ECF and/or the Finals?

Financial considerations aren't only limited to how much you pay players. lost playoff revenue is also something to think about.

Not to mention the worldwide merchandising revenue a champion with such star-power generates.

Totally!

how much revenue does this franchise take in as repeat Champs from merchandising to televisions to advertising, etc...?

I read an estimate that last season, each home game was worth about $1.5 million.  I don't know if that took into account increasing ticket prices as the playoffs went on, but missing out on the Finals cost this team, at a minimum, between $6 and $9 million.  I'm not sure how the revenue pie is divided up, but I'm sure another title would have helped in terms of sponsorship dollars, etc.

[MVP]

This year, the only "bench" player who delivered in the playoffs was BBD (with the exception of one game by House against Chicago), and BBD became a starter when KG went down.

You are overlooking the fact that our best bench player IMO got injured in the 2nd game of the postseason. Leon was a very productive player for us and him going down had a huge impact on the bench, especially when KG was already out. And if House delivered in only 1 game against Chicago, does scoring 31 points in game 2 and 15 points in game 3 in the Orlando series not count for some reason? And wha about Scal who shot 45% for three for the playoffs...he made significant contributions in some games as well.

Right now they have no bench and NO MONEY TO SPEND ON A BENCH. They will have even less money after they extend Rondo (assuming he's willing), which will cost at least 10 million a year.

And extension doesn't kick in until next year so I don't see how it has an impact on spending this years MLE. You also failed to mention how we have a little under $30M in expiring contracts next year.

Powe and BBD are unrestricted free agents.

They're both restricted.

House has a player option.

I don't see why he would decline it.

Marbury and Moore both sucked, and I would not consider bringing either one back.

Moore I agree. Marbury I would want back for cheap.

And why should decent veterans like Rasheed Wallace want to come to Boston for the MLE?  The Lakers, Cavs, Nuggets and Magic have MLE's too.  These veterans want to go to (i) a winner, (ii) a team where they can start, or (iii) a team that can offer more money.  The Celtics can't offer any of that.

Why wouldn't they want to come here for the MLE? The Lakers aren't going to be offering their MLE, they are going to have trouble keeping their own players in Odom and Ariza. The Cavs have to give Varejao a big extension. The Magic are going to have trouble keeping Hedo and Gortat. So those teams are going to use their resources to keep their roster and not use the MLE. And is a player like Rasheed Wallace too stupid to realize that KG was out and that otherwise we would have had a pretty good shot at a championship?

You don't need to get 10 players to build a good bench. In the playoffs, all you need is 2-3 players you can rely on. Lets say we resign Big Baby and sign Rasheed, that would be arguably the best bigman duo off the bench in the league. Then you already have House you averaged almost 8 points in the playoffs on 52% shooting and 49% from the 3. And finally, this year we have a few expiring contracts to play around with in Scal and TA who we could trade for another contributor. Lets say Nocioni. So you have House/Nocioni/Big Baby/Wallace coming off the bench. Is that a bad bench now?

This team is Detroit redux, except that the Celtics do not have young players who are nearly as good as Stuckey, Maxiell or Afflalo.

Oh really. Rondo>Stuckey. Big Baby=Maxiell. Perkins>>>>>>Afflalo.

[winsomme]

This year, the only "bench" player who delivered in the playoffs was BBD (with the exception of one game by House against Chicago), and BBD became a starter when KG went down.

You are overlooking the fact that our best bench player IMO got injured in the 2nd game of the postseason. Leon was a very productive player for us and him going down had a huge impact on the bench, especially when KG was already out. And if House delivered in only 1 game against Chicago, does scoring 31 points in game 2 and 15 points in game 3 in the Orlando series not count for some reason? And wha about Scal who shot 45% for three for the playoffs...he made significant contributions in some games as well.

Right now they have no bench and NO MONEY TO SPEND ON A BENCH. They will have even less money after they extend Rondo (assuming he's willing), which will cost at least 10 million a year.

And extension doesn't kick in until next year so I don't see how it has an impact on spending this years MLE. You also failed to mention how we have a little under $30M in expiring contracts next year.

Powe and BBD are unrestricted free agents.

They're both restricted.

House has a player option.

I don't see why he would decline it.

Marbury and Moore both sucked, and I would not consider bringing either one back.

Moore I agree. Marbury I would want back for cheap.

And why should decent veterans like Rasheed Wallace want to come to Boston for the MLE?  The Lakers, Cavs, Nuggets and Magic have MLE's too.  These veterans want to go to (i) a winner, (ii) a team where they can start, or (iii) a team that can offer more money.  The Celtics can't offer any of that.

Why wouldn't they want to come here for the MLE? The Lakers aren't going to be offering their MLE, they are going to have trouble keeping their own players in Odom and Ariza. The Cavs have to give Varejao a big extension. The Magic are going to have trouble keeping Hedo and Gortat. So those teams are going to use their resources to keep their roster and not use the MLE. And is a player like Rasheed Wallace too stupid to realize that KG was out and that otherwise we would have had a pretty good shot at a championship?

You don't need to get 10 players to build a good bench. In the playoffs, all you need is 2-3 players you can rely on. Lets say we resign Big Baby and sign Rasheed, that would be arguably the best bigman duo off the bench in the league. Then you already have House you averaged almost 8 points in the playoffs on 52% shooting and 49% from the 3. And finally, this year we have a few expiring contracts to play around with in Scal and TA who we could trade for another contributor. Lets say Nocioni. So you have House/Nocioni/Big Baby/Wallace coming off the bench. Is that a bad bench now?

This team is Detroit redux, except that the Celtics do not have young players who are nearly as good as Stuckey, Maxiell or Afflalo.

Oh really. Rondo>Stuckey. Big Baby=Maxiell. Perkins>>>>>>Afflalo.

actually I'm not sure CLE is going to have any trouble re-signing Z and Var. They have 20 mil coming off the books with Snow and Wally.

maybe the best move Ferry made was not dealing Wally's contract.

Their payroll is only 70 mil and that's with Zs player option of 12 mil and Var's of 6 mil.

Z isn't going to command more than 12 mil, so they could just extend him for more years. and even if they boost Var up to the 10 mil per range, that only increases their payroll by 4 mil as he is already on the books for 6.

so their payroll is actually pretty solid. I could definitely see them using most of their MLE.

they also have Wallace coming off the books the following season, so they don't really have any bad contracts.

[Brickowski]

BBD is unrestricted.  The Celtics did not get a 3rd year option. As of July 1, 2009 he's no longer under contract to any NBA team.

Besides, do you see BBD as the 6th man on a championship team?  I don't.  I see him as a solid 4th big man.  They need another 6-10 or better player who can actually play.  They need another wing shooter and they need a backup pg who defends alot better than Marbury.  They might have had that in Pruitt if Rivers hadn't stuck with the underperforming Marbury.  Terrible decision, but it's Rivers who lost his bonus money, not me.

[WedmanIsMyHero]

Here's a question: There is one type of the player the Celtics lack (well, excluding Bill Walker, but Doc doesn't seem to like him all that much) and have lacked ever since the beginning of the Pierce era -- the athletic, exciting, jump out of the gym swing player.  Guys who are not necessarily starters, but can provide huge boosts off the bench when they are playing well and matchup problems for opponents.  Think Mickael Pietrus or Trevor Ariza.  Do Ainge and Doc just not see value in these types of players?

[MVP]

BBD is unrestricted.  The Celtics did not get a 3rd year option. As of July 1, 2009 he's no longer under contract to any NBA team.

Besides, do you see BBD as the 6th man on a championship team?  I don't.  I see him as a solid 4th big man.  They need another 6-10 or better player who can actually play.  They need another wing shooter and they need a backup pg who defends alot better than Marbury.  They might have had that in Pruitt if Rivers hadn't stuck with the underperforming Marbury.  Terrible decision, but it's Rivers who lost his bonus money, not me.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-09-10

ESPN has him down as restricted, along with Powe. I don't see him as a 6th man on a champhionship team, but he could be a 7th man. We need to get that 6th man with the MLE.

[BballTim]

BBD is unrestricted.  The Celtics did not get a 3rd year option. As of July 1, 2009 he's no longer under contract to any NBA team.

Besides, do you see BBD as the 6th man on a championship team?  I don't.  I see him as a solid 4th big man.  They need another 6-10 or better player who can actually play.  They need another wing shooter and they need a backup pg who defends alot better than Marbury.  They might have had that in Pruitt if Rivers hadn't stuck with the underperforming Marbury.  Terrible decision, but it's Rivers who lost his bonus money, not me.

  If not for KG's injury you might have seen his as the 6th man on a championship team this year. In general I agree with you about BBD though. He's a tweener.

[QuinielaBox]

You mean RELOAD don't you?

We could add Kirk Hinrich, McDyess, and Grant Hill and we would be odds on favorites next year - Kobe, Howard, and Lebron be [dang]ed. 

[Fafnir]

BBD is unrestricted.  The Celtics did not get a 3rd year option. As of July 1, 2009 he's no longer under contract to any NBA team.

Besides, do you see BBD as the 6th man on a championship team?  I don't.  I see him as a solid 4th big man.  They need another 6-10 or better player who can actually play.  They need another wing shooter and they need a backup pg who defends alot better than Marbury.  They might have had that in Pruitt if Rivers hadn't stuck with the underperforming Marbury.  Terrible decision, but it's Rivers who lost his bonus money, not me.

  If not for KG's injury you might have seen his as the 6th man on a championship team this year. In general I agree with you about BBD though. He's a tweener.

Yes but he does have good value in that he can play either front court positions. You should have a shot blocker on the floor with him though. Otherwise the interior defense suffers greatly.

I really wonder how much interest he will draw. This year's FA class is pretty deep.

[Jon]

The Celtics should be rebuilding.  I do not think they are close to being a championship team with what they have under contract for next year.  Even if Garnett comes back 100%, Pierce and Ray Allen are aging and they have no bench. Plus, the Sixers are going to hire Thibodeau.

How many rebuilding teams *ever* end up with as good a shot as we'll have at the title next year if we bring everyone back?  Let's say our chances at a title next year are 25% - 30%; what are the chances that, if we rebuild, we'll be looking at similar odds any time within the next five to seven years?

TP

That's exactly correct.

By the way, this is one of the most ridiculous threads ever posted on this board.

Let's face it, even when a team does everything right, drafts correctly, gets some good free agents to come, makes some good trades, even when that happens, teams don't usually win.  Just go ask guys like Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Dirk Nowitzki, and Steve Nash how things worked out for them in their NBA careers.  And that's assuming all those things go down right: they usually don't.  I remember the year Orlando and Chicago cleared all this cap space to be in line to sign Tim Duncan.  Instead, he resigns in San Antonio and Orlando gets McGrady and Hill, which initially looked pretty good until both became perpetually injured.  Chicago, on the other hand, couldn't get any big names to bite and ended up settling on Ron Mercer. 

So before people get carried away with rebuilding, let's remember how many pitfalls there are in the process and that even when it goes right, teams still don't usually win.

To me, the C's were clearly one of the best three teams in the NBA when healthy and arguably the best.  You don't blow that up to rebuild, particularly when the starting lineup will be better next year than when they won #17. 

[Brickowski]

BBD is unrestricted.  The Celtics did not get a 3rd year option. As of July 1, 2009 he's no longer under contract to any NBA team.

Besides, do you see BBD as the 6th man on a championship team?  I don't.  I see him as a solid 4th big man.  They need another 6-10 or better player who can actually play.  They need another wing shooter and they need a backup pg who defends alot better than Marbury.  They might have had that in Pruitt if Rivers hadn't stuck with the underperforming Marbury.  Terrible decision, but it's Rivers who lost his bonus money, not me.

I don't see how they are restricted.  Their contracts are over. The Celtics have full bird rights on Powe, and "early Bird" rights on BBD, but I don't see how a team can match offers on second round picks to whom it has no financial obligation, and no rights to make a qualifying offer.  Am I missing something?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-09-10

ESPN has him down as restricted, along with Powe. I don't see him as a 6th man on a champhionship team, but he could be a 7th man. We need to get that 6th man with the MLE.