I can't see how fouling would've guaranteed the win. At that point, the game was 8 seconds from ending. If they had fouled right away, they could take 1, maybe 2 seconds away. If they made both free throws, we would be up by one with the ball and 6-7 seconds left. We get the ball and get fouled right away, that might take 1, maaaaybe two seconds if we are lucky. Then there is the possibility of missing a free throw, leaving the game up by two (or maybe one if we missed both free throws) with still 4 seconds to go and a time out.
I don't know that's icing on the cake. A gifted shooter like Ben Gordon has just as much a chance of making a three with 4 seconds to go that could be for either a win (if we were missed a FT) or tie the game.
I think Doc played it safe. Instead of giving the chance of losing the game, he'd rather see defense make a play and the worse case scenario is tying the game.