Next season "The Perfect Storm"

[sinbad]

My apologies for jumping ahead to next year. I'm not writing off this season yet but I just can't contain my excitement for what looks to be "The Perfect Storm" next year. The definition of the perfect storm is when two hurricanes combine to make one "Super Hurricane".

We all know about the Big 3. KG, Pierce, and Allen are still legitimate all-stars. KG is still the best defensive player, the best PF in the NBA and a MVP type of player. Pierce has a very good shot at making All-NBA 1st team this year (Its between him and Dirk). Allen is the best shooter in the game and having his most efficient year ever. On paper this is still the best threesome in the game.

Now ironically KG's injury has brought out Rondo's game and has magnified Perk's importance to this team. Stars are born in the playoffs and Rondo has been thrust into the spotlight. We were all hoping he could fill the role as the third amigo of the Big 3 but he has become its leading man. After these playoffs are done, he should be considered among the top 5 PGs in the game.

The Perfect Storm next year would be the combining of the Big 3 who are in tail end of their primes (but still in their primes) and Rondo and Perk who now seem to be at the begining of theirs. It would be that very rare balance when youth and expereince mesh perfectly together at the perfect time. Where the experienced stars are not too old and the young players have gained just enough experience. Ironically the last time we had a chance for a Perfect Storm like this was with the original Big 3 and Len Bias and Reggie Lewis. As good as Rondo was last year, he was mostly potential and not enough consistency. He seems now to be on the cusp of putting it all together and at least threatning to join the ranks of Chris Paul and Deron Williams. I'm not saying he's there yet but after Paul, Deron, and I'll throw in Parker, Rondo's already in that next tier of PGs that include Nash, Chaucey, and Devin Harris. We would have arguably the best PF, 2nd best SF, a top 5 SG, a top 5 PG and a top 10 center. Add in BBD, House, TA and hopefully Powe and we could be looking at the best team of the Big 3 era.

All that being said, I'm excited about this years team and am really enjoying the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, last years ride was great but I expected to win it all and anything less than a champioship was a failure. A single loss felt unacceptable because the level of expectation was so high. This year I'm rooting to see how far we can get and I find myself admiring the team's grit and toughness.

[CoachBo]

Not to throw cold water on your premise, but more than a starting five are required for a "perfect storm."

Danny MUST do a better job assembling a bench this summer, or we will struggle again when the inevitable injuries arrive.

A competent three to defend, play physically and hit outside shots, a quality big - Robert Swift need not apply - and a veteran point are absolute musts if this team will make a Finals run next season.

[Redz]

Didn't the whole crew die in the Perfect Storm?  I'm just sayin'

  Point taken.  I was thinking the same thing.  Hopefully next year will be their `86 season.  Yes, that does require a bench.

[Jon Niednagel]

Yeah, I agree with those that say the perfect storm will have more to do with what happens to the bench next season rather than the starting five (although I do share the OP's excitement). I'd like to see the Celtics re-sign Baby and Marbury, trade Scal and one of House or TA's expiring contracts for Posey or comparable wing, and sign Rasheed Wallace as a free agent. That would be a pretty nice bench.

Rondo, Marbs, Pruitt
Allen, House/TA, Giddens
PP, Posey, Walker
KG, Baby, Powe (get well soon buddy)
Perk, Sheed, Mikki Moore or second round draft pick

[ManUp]

Next season is definitely looking pretty good. KG should have everything taken care of and be 100%. Ray doesn't seem to age, and Pierce will probably be more or less the same as this year. The starting lineup will be improved just by the development of Rondo and Perk.

But like CoachBo said, we need more than a starting five. Hopefully this offseason Danny solidifies the bench earlier. I don't want any of this wait for someone to get bought out during the season crap. Resign the players we like (Baby, hoping Powe), get a vet PF not named mikki moore, a vet backup point, and vet wing.

[droopdog7]

I think we'll be good.  I also expect that the Cavs, Magic, and Lakers will be better next year as well.  So no guarantees.  Man, next year is shaping to be a big, big, year.

[Cman]

The warm fuzzy:
Injuries aside, our starting 5 looks to be the best in the league next season. 

Now the cold water:  
The problem is that as the Big Three age, injuries will become more likely.  Yes, KG should be fine, but it may take him longer to recover from surgery than anticipated, and he may be slower when he comes back.  Ray ray and PP have been relatively injury free this season, who's to say the same will happen again next year?  These guys are getting older, and are more prone to injury, plain and simple.

Some more cold water:
The Cs already have $72M tied up in salary next year.  If the Cs can tie up Powe and BBD for "not much money" and use the full MLE for a player like Rasheed (as some suggest), that would put the Cs salary at about $80M.  Will the owners pony up?  Maybe.... maybe not.

The bright spots:
If the Cs can retain BBD for a reasonable amount of money, then they have at least the core of a bench (House, BBD).  Expiring contracts should be in demand, so Tony+Scals* should be able to be used to bring back a decent bench player (though not Posey, as someone said above, nor Nocioni -- been there and could of done that, and the Cs passed because of the high cost in both cases).  Also, because of the desire of many teams to make a run at Dwade/CBosh/LBJ, there should be some decent bench players available cheap.  I am thinking, for example, of a player like Matt Barnes.  Few teams will throw an expensive long term contract his way.

* The Draft
One area we could see some action would be the Cs trading Tony+Scals for a draft pick +player with a longer term contract.  In general, though, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cs not make any draft picks this year.  Cs already have 3 young players to develop (Pruitt, Giddens, Walker) and it was hard enough for those 3 to find playing time. 

[PosImpos]

I think you're right to be positive about next year, but Rondo has a ways to go before he is on the same level as Deron Williams or Chris Paul, and Paul Pierce is not the second best SF in the game like you implied.

Nevertheless, there's reason to be confident about our starting 5 next year.

[StartOrien]

The warm fuzzy:
Injuries aside, our starting 5 looks to be the best in the league next season. 

Now the cold water:  
The problem is that as the Big Three age, injuries will become more likely.  Yes, KG should be fine, but it may take him longer to recover from surgery than anticipated, and he may be slower when he comes back.  Ray ray and PP have been relatively injury free this season, who's to say the same will happen again next year?  These guys are getting older, and are more prone to injury, plain and simple.

Some more cold water:
The Cs already have $72M tied up in salary next year.  If the Cs can tie up Powe and BBD for "not much money" and use the full MLE for a player like Rasheed (as some suggest), that would put the Cs salary at about $80M.  Will the owners pony up?  Maybe.... maybe not.

The bright spots:
If the Cs can retain BBD for a reasonable amount of money, then they have at least the core of a bench (House, BBD).  Expiring contracts should be in demand, so Tony+Scals* should be able to be used to bring back a decent bench player (though not Posey, as someone said above, nor Nocioni -- been there and could of done that, and the Cs passed because of the high cost in both cases).  Also, because of the desire of many teams to make a run at Dwade/CBosh/LBJ, there should be some decent bench players available cheap.  I am thinking, for example, of a player like Matt Barnes.  Few teams will throw an expensive long term contract his way.

* The Draft
One area we could see some action would be the Cs trading Tony+Scals for a draft pick +player with a longer term contract.  In general, though, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cs not make any draft picks this year.  Cs already have 3 young players to develop (Pruitt, Giddens, Walker) and it was hard enough for those 3 to find playing time. 

I think with baby's increased role it has become significantly less likely that the Celtics would go after Sheed instead saving the money or perhaps using it on a veteran swing man who could take some minutes from Allen/Pierce if Bill Walker doesn't continue to mature.

[Jeff]

I have a slightly different take on it

I think "the big 3" will be passed by Rondo in terms of production at some point (not collectively, individually)

in other words, it will be "Rondo and the Big 3" instead of "the Big 3 and Rondo" or "the big 4"

[LarBrd33]

perfect storm theory goes out the window if KG has chronic knee problems for the remainder of his career.   This might be it for him as a star player.

[wiley]

No problem for jumping ahead, original poster, what else are we supposed to do with two full days off until the next playfoff game??

Celts are lined up to be real good next year.  With Powe's injury, the best thing the Celts could possibly do before next year is get themselves a younger version of PJ Brown (I doubt Sheed's comin' here).  Then, Powe can recover slowly and become our 5th big once he heals, and if he needs longer/isn't ready, then we can get our 5th big at the tail end of next year (assuming Erden is not deemed sufficient for playoff run...I have no idea about that).

It would be nice to have a Posey or an Ariza or an Outlaw as well, but that's going to depend on the team's evaluation of Walker, TA and Giddens.

I hope Marbury succeeds somewhere, though my suspicion is that the Celts will look elsewhere for their backup PG.

[LarBrd33]

I have a slightly different take on it

I think "the big 3" will be passed by Rondo in terms of production at some point (not collectively, individually)

in other words, it will be "Rondo and the Big 3" instead of "the Big 3 and Rondo" or "the big 4"

Well I mean... so far these playoffs he is leading us in points, rebounds, assists and steals.  Basically everything other than blocks.   22.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 4 steals 50% shooting over 3 games.   He's completely carrying us in this series.

So you might be right.   With Ray and Pierce getting older and KG's knees being shot for the rest of his career... it's going to become Rondo's team pretty quickly.

[wiley]

Not to throw cold water on your premise, but more than a starting five are required for a "perfect storm."

Danny MUST do a better job assembling a bench this summer, or we will struggle again when the inevitable injuries arrive.

A competent three to defend, play physically and hit outside shots, a quality big - Robert Swift need not apply - and a veteran point are absolute musts if this team will make a Finals run next season.

Just to add onto this, the Celtics also must maximize their bench next year because it's time for our big three to knock 3-5 minutes off their playing time.  I favor keeping the big 3 intact as long as possible, and they'll last longer if we are capable of playing them fewer minutes during the season.  They will be less injury prone if fatigue is minimized.  I will even go so far as to say that a rested big 3 could kick anyone's butt regardless of homecourt advantage.  I feel this way because the chemistry will only get better, Rondo makes it a big 4, Perk is a stud, and Big Baby is legit.  

So Danny, make us invisible with an Outlaw and one more center-sized defender.  I urge Danny to think defense first when assembling the bench.  I'd rather have Camby than Sheed for example (or a Camby-like player if Camby's no longer around/available)

[wiley]

Not to throw cold water on your premise, but more than a starting five are required for a "perfect storm."

Danny MUST do a better job assembling a bench this summer, or we will struggle again when the inevitable injuries arrive.

A competent three to defend, play physically and hit outside shots, a quality big - Robert Swift need not apply - and a veteran point are absolute musts if this team will make a Finals run next season.

Just to add onto this, the Celtics also must maximize their bench next year because it's time for our big three to knock 3-5 minutes off their playing time.  I favor keeping the big 3 intact as long as possible, and they'll last longer if we are capable of playing them fewer minutes during the season.  They will be less injury prone if fatigue is minimized.  I will even go so far as to say that a rested big 3 could kick anyone's butt regardless of homecourt advantage.  I feel this way because the chemistry will only get better, Rondo makes it a big 4, Perk is a stud, and Big Baby is legit.  

So Danny, make us invisible with an Outlaw and one more center-sized defender.  I urge Danny to think defense first when assembling the bench.  I'd rather have Camby than Sheed for example (or a Camby-like player if Camby's no longer around/available)

I meant "invincible" not invisible