Hollinger Not Giving Us A Fair Shake

[PosImpos]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090417

Is it just me, or is he really downplaying the Celtic's chances here?  Personally, I've more or less given up on the idea that the Celtics could win 18 this year, let alone the finals, but giving us roughly a 1/3 chance of making the ECF?  I think that's really harsh.  Generally I like Hollinger's take on things, but I can't agree with this. 

I mean, come on, a 35% chance to beat Orlando in a 7 game series with home court advantage?  Are we talking about the same Orlando team that had the weakest finish of any of the playoff teams besides Utah?  Even if Dwight Howard is the DPY, I'd say the Celtics defense > Orlando defense.  That plus home court seems like it oughta be enough to give us at least a better than 50% chance.

Even if Garnett doesn't come back at all in the postseason (and honestly at this point I'm roughly 80% sure we won't see him again) I still think this team has performed well enough lately to give us the inside track to the ECF, especially since we'll have home court in the first two rounds.

[CelticG1]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090417

Is it just me, or is he really downplaying the Celtic's chances here?  Personally, I've more or less given up on the idea that the Celtics could win 18 this year, let alone the finals, but giving us roughly a 1/3 chance of making the ECF?  I think that's really harsh.  Generally I like Hollinger's take on things, but I can't agree with this. 

I mean, come on, a 35% chance to beat Orlando in a 7 game series with home court advantage?  Are we talking about the same Orlando team that had the weakest finish of any of the playoff teams besides Utah?  Even if Dwight Howard is the DPY, I'd say the Celtics defense > Orlando defense.  That plus home court seems like it oughta be enough to give us at least a better than 50% chance.

Even if Garnett doesn't come back at all in the postseason (and honestly at this point I'm roughly 80% sure we won't see him again) I still think this team has performed well enough lately to give us the inside track to the ECF, especially since we'll have home court in the first two rounds.

I agree completely. Why doesn't he even mention Turkuglu and Lewis? They are banged up and might even miss some playoff games or could even be more injured. I like our chances even with them healthy but to give us such a low chance of beating them is pretty ridiculous. It does seem that he goes purely by numbers and point differential etc. but if you go by the matchups plus us having homecourt you need to give us at least 50/50 if not the edge in the series. I think even without HCA we should still have the edge in this matchup.

[Rondo_is_better]

I really, really dislike Hollinger. He's so buried in his numbers, its like he's autistic; he looks at basketball without an ounce of consideration for the human factor. Frustrating.

[QuinielaBox]

There is a reason for going against Hollinger's pick by numbers. His analysis gives handicappers paralysis.

[cordobes]

35% seems about right to me and is more than enough to win a series. It's better than 30%, 20% or 10%. I can't put a number on our chances, but I think the Magic are clear favourites (assuming they're relatively healthy except Nelson) and the C's are the underdogs. I think KG's absence turns the things upside down: with him playing, I'd say the exact opposite.

I strongly disagree with your consideration about defence. The Magic ended the season with the best defence in the NBA - in terms of defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. And this was with Garnett playing 2/3 of the season. It's simple: with KG we are the best defensive team in the NBA; without him, we aren't - the Magic or the Cavs (fully healthy) are.

[Edgar]

assuming they're relatively healthy except Nelson

Nelson is key for Orlando specially during playoffs
hes one of the most underrated pgs in the league imho
they will suffer his absence
people overrates howard
and hedo isnt the one he used to be
Rashad never did anything productive in his life

Cs in 6

[the_Bird]

I know we're MASSIVE underdogs to win the title this year, but only a 4.1% chance?  I mean, I work with numbers all day, but you've got to recognize when the statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt. 

What's Vegas giving us for odds?  The best I could find online was 5-1 (which strikes me as about right, maybe a little high); if someone would give me 25-1 odds on the C's winning, I'd be all over that!

[PRIDE]

Hollinger has always used his numbers to hate on the C's. Basketball isn't a math problem, its a TEAM game that requires you to be physically and mentally strong. I don't care what Hollinger says.

GO C's!!!!!!!!!

[Neurotic Guy]

You could look at this as disrespect for the rest of the C's or as high respect for Kevin Garnett.

Without KG, the C's go into the post-season with 2 young guys at the 4 who are undersized and unproven in terms of consistency.  My heart wants to believe BBD and Powe will be effective game in/game out and that Perk will step up as the defensive anchor (and a low-post threat), but realistically, it is less than 50% likely that we can be a top contender in the absence of KG.  Not impossible, but not likely.

[Brickowski]

The problem with Hollinger's analysis is that full season statistics are meaningless.  You have to look at BBDs and Leon's stats AFTER KG went down, not when they were playing 10-12 minutes a game.  Same with Chicago.  They are a different team with Brad Miller and Salmons. Orlando is a different team with skip at the point as opposed to Nelson.

The Orlando series is simple.  If the refs protect Dwight Howard and call every little touch foul on Perkins, Orlando wins.  If not, the Celtics win.  It has little or nothing to do with statistical analysis.

[Hoops]

I love Hollinger. But I also disagree with his take on the Celtics. Hollinger always acknowledges that stats are only one piece of the puzzle - they don't tell the whole story. I'm not suggesting that Hollinger believes the Celtics are going to fare much better than his stats predict, but I don't think he's a Celtics hater.

[Fafnir]

Hollinger has always used his numbers to hate on the C's. Basketball isn't a math problem, its a TEAM game that requires you to be physically and mentally strong. I don't care what Hollinger says.

GO C's!!!!!!!!!

He loved us all of last year with his numbers. I think his analysis is fair. I hope he's wrong but it is justifiable.