Is Oden a bust?

[wdleehi]

I only think Oden is a bust for those saying he would be the next great big man ala Duncan/Russell (Howard obviously not in this class). I think Oden will be an all-star center likely, but it seems like Durant is the real special player out of that draft, and has more of a drive to win/absolutely loves to play the game.

How do you know he has more drive?  As far as we know, he has just been healthier. 


Oden has won more then Durrant.  Won more in college.  Oden help drive a team to the NCAA finals as a freshmen. 

[davemonsterband]

Expectation wise, I expect him to be one. Deeming him one just yet, well, would be rediculous and blind statement. Like I said a long time ago, if he patterns his game after a Dikembe or a Bill Russel type I think he could be the best defensive big man in the game with his length, strength and vertical quickness. Offensively, who's a best case comparison? Ewing? Zo? I just don't see that in him, never did, I've always thought the expectations were askew to be honest, we shall see. It was looking like Big Al might become one for a bit don't forget, we of all people should realize the importance of patience in judging such a thing.

[orrzor]

I only think Oden is a bust for those saying he would be the next great big man ala Duncan/Russell (Howard obviously not in this class). I think Oden will be an all-star center likely, but it seems like Durant is the real special player out of that draft, and has more of a drive to win/absolutely loves to play the game.

How do you know he has more drive?  As far as we know, he has just been healthier. 


Oden has won more then Durrant.  Won more in college.  Oden help drive a team to the NCAA finals as a freshmen. 

Many reports say Oden mopes a lot, spends time apart from his teammates on the plane, has a fragile psyche. This has been one of his problems in Portland. IMO Oden just seems like a guy who plays basketball because he is tall and genetically gifted, not because he really loves playing or wants to dominate the competition.

[mainevent]

Funny, I started this same thread months ago, after they played us. I wish I could find it. Many here stated I was over-reacting. I stand by my post. Oden will be the present day Sam Bowie. Mark my word.

[cordobes]

I don't think so - but it's true he has been subpar relatively to the expectations. However, let me note that:

- Oden is not yet a good defensive player. If he was always considered to be ready for excelling in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball (and it's true he was), that prediction has failed. He's slow, he can't hedge hard on screen/rolls, he lacks awareness, he takes too long to react to the game, he has poor control and he lacks fundamentals (the way he doesn't seem to learn how to keep his arms straight is annoying). He's still big enough to have an effect and he does a decent (but far from spectacular) job defending his man in the blocks, but he's been an unimpressive defender so far. He's a magnificent rebounder though.

- I really don't get the image of "good guy" that was created. So far, it seems Oden is an unpleasant malcontent who nobody likes, who doesn't interact with his teammates (this is true, at least in games), that when flying on the team plane, spends the trip isolated in the boss' private room instead of joining the team, nurses injuries (his own coach suggested this), prefers to party than to ride a stationary bike, lunches by himself, is "moody" or perennially depressed and smokes pot (well, at least this last part shows he's a good fit to the city and the franchise). I don't like how many times his commitment to the game has been questioned so far.

[mainevent]

When next season begins he will be 21 years old and have a year's worth of experience under his belt. Let's not forget, this is his rookie season after all. 9 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.2BPG with a FG% of 57% and a PER of 17.78 in only 22 MPG for a 20 year old rookie is [dang] good.

In comparison, Michael Beasley, who had one of the most impressive freshman years ever in NCAA basketball and is 20 years old is averaging 13.5 PPG, 5 RPG and a 46% FG% and a PER of 16.27 in 24 MPG. Is Beasley a bust? He was one of the most dominant rebounding and scoring freshman in NCAA ever and his stats aren't exactly impressive.

Oden is young and had some unlucky injuries. He could bust out big time next year with  10/10/2.3/57% set of numbers next year. Remember, where Oden was always considered to excel was on defense and the boards. It was always acknowledged that his offensive abilities were well behind the curve.

Greg Oden is 37yrs old, I don't care what anyone says! 

[wdleehi]

I only think Oden is a bust for those saying he would be the next great big man ala Duncan/Russell (Howard obviously not in this class). I think Oden will be an all-star center likely, but it seems like Durant is the real special player out of that draft, and has more of a drive to win/absolutely loves to play the game.

How do you know he has more drive?  As far as we know, he has just been healthier. 


Oden has won more then Durrant.  Won more in college.  Oden help drive a team to the NCAA finals as a freshmen. 

Many reports say Oden mopes a lot, spends time apart from his teammates on the plane, has a fragile psyche. This has been one of his problems in Portland. IMO Oden just seems like a guy who plays basketball because he is tall and genetically gifted, not because he really loves playing or wants to dominate the competition.

His only problem has been that he has been injured. 

[guava_wrench]

Of course he isn't a bust yet. We have no idea what he will be like in a few years.

Things don't look too good right now though.

[KungPoweChicken]

It's obvious that in this point in Oden's career, we have sufficient evidence that strongly suggests he is a bust.

[wdleehi]

I remember the Jefferson is a bust talk in his second season as well.  Injuries was the cause of that as well.

[KungPoweChicken]

He is a bust in the sense that he was supposed to be the next Bill Russell or Tim Duncan and come in averaging 20/10. This was the expectation. He could still be an all-star center though, but the likelihood that he will be a HOF top big man seems less and less likely and his being chosen #1 seems like a mistake now.

If he didn't average 20 and 10 in College why would he come in and average 20 and 10 in the NBA as a rookie?... especially after not playing ball for over a year and still getting in shape from microfracture surgery?

He was supposed to be on Dwight Howard's level and have the potential to be better... 

As I said... As a rookie Dwight averaged  12 points, 10 rebounds, 1.7 blocks in 33 minutes with 52% shooting.

As a rookie Greg is averaging 9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 23 minutes with 57% shooting. 

Project his minutes to 33 and he's getting 13 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 blocks  ....

Sounds about right.  He needs to learn how to stay out of foul trouble (he likely will with time), get proper basketball stamina (probably will with time), regain his explosiveness (probably will with time) ... and he'll get the minutes to do more. 

The guy only played a handful of games in College and missed most of his season because of a hand injury.  I know he lead his team to the national title game, but I fail to see how that half-season makes him that further advanced than a high school senior jumping to the pros.  We knew he was raw.  And right now some of his early potential greatness is lost by the fact that he's still technically rehabbing from serious surgery.    Way too early to say he's a "bust"...  Al Jefferson didn't amount to crap until his 3rd season.  If in a few years Greg is still hobbling around missing half his season and putting up mere double doubles... you can call him a bust, I guess.

Tim Duncan spent 4 years in College.   

I don't care if Greg is a few years older than Dwight was when he entered the league... he's still a raw NBA rookie with only a handful of College games making him more "experienced" than Howard was. 

Your rationale doesn't make any sense. Why do injuries prevent Oden from being a bust? Should we should all feel sorry for the big man because he can't stay on the court? Injuries are a part of the game, and there is enough evidence to state that in the future Oden will never play an entire season healthy. He is injury prone. On top of that, his present skill set would warrant him a pick in the late lottery. It's amazing the lengths people will go to defend this guy.

[Redz]

I remember the Jefferson is a bust talk in his second season as well.  Injuries was the cause of that as well.

and look at Big Al now...injured

[Redz]

Through two years he's a bust, sure. 

But it's impossible to know what the sum of his career is until it's over.  Look at the injuries Ilgauskas came back from.

[LarBrd33]

It's obvious that in this point in Oden's career, we have sufficient evidence that strongly suggests he is a bust.

Your definition of "bust" is pretty wonky, imo.   Michael Olowakandi was a "bust", because he came into the league at 23 and never showed much improvement in 9 years.

Gerald Green is considered a "bust" to people who had high expectations, because he hasn't amounted to crap in 5 seasons.  Same with Kedrick Brown.  Sam Bowie was a solid NBA player early in his career, but not nearly good enough to justify being taken over Michael Jordan.

Kwame Brown is unquestionably a bust... 8 years into his career and he's still a bum.  Darko is unquestionably a bust...

Greg Oden has only played 46 NBA games while unhealthy and statistically has been one of the best players in either his draft class or rookie class... assuming he gets healthy, his potential is still extremely high.  

You can say, "his rookie season is a disappointment... I though he'd magically be like Tim Duncan as a rookie despite only playing a handful of college games, taking a year off of basketball and playing at 60% all season... instead we got rookie-esque Dwight Howard"

But saying, "he's a bust" is kinda silly.   Wait a few years to see what happens.  I'd be foolish to call him a bust right now.  Way too many questions and variables.  I'm not sure how much pain he's playing in, how limited his athleticism, strength and explosiveness is from coming off surgery, how limited his timing and feel for the game is after taking a year off...  how limited his game is from missing the preseason and the first couple weeks of the regular season... how much he's struggling to fit into a playoff team as a rookie and how difficult he's finding it to fit into his specific role (they aren't asking him to be a star) in limited minutes... how much the pressure of the rookie season is weighing on him and how much a difference it will make if he learns how to stay out of foul trouble... etc.

Durant got to spend an entire season in an empty Seattle arena jacking up shots, shooting a dreadful percentage on a team without any expectations whatsoever... got as many minutes as he needed and wasn't asked to play defense.   Now he's a 2nd year player in Oklahoma, making a lot of shots, shooting amazing percentages... without any expectations whatosever... gets as many minutes as he needs and isn't being asked to play defense.     I'd be equally foolish to say Oden is anywhere near Durant so far (especially considering I've posted like 8 threads about how amazing Durant is), but... It would be interesting to see how a healthy Oden would play in 40+ minutes on a bottomfeeder team that just let him do whatever he wanted.

I adore Durant.  His first 50 games he averaged 19.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal 40% shooting, 28% from three in 33 minutes.  I already mentioned that if you project Oden's first 46 games to 33 minutes... he's putting up 13 points, 10 rebounds, 1.7 blocks on 57% shooting (and 5.6 fouls)... and that's with all the above limitations.  Really... just way too soon... too many questions...

Time... need time...

[orrzor]

It's obvious that in this point in Oden's career, we have sufficient evidence that strongly suggests he is a bust.

Your definition of "bust" is pretty wonky, imo.   Michael Olowakandi was a "bust", because he came into the league at 23 and never showed much improvement in 9 years.

Gerald Green is considered a "bust" to people who had high expectations, because he hasn't amounted to crap in 5 seasons.  Same with Kedrick Brown.  Sam Bowie was a solid NBA player early in his career, but not nearly good enough to justify being taken over Michael Jordan.

Kwame Brown is unquestionably a bust... 8 years into his career and he's still a bum.  Darko is unquestionably a bust...

Greg Oden has only played 46 NBA games while unhealthy and statistically has been one of the best players in either his draft class or rookie class... assuming he gets healthy, his potential is still extremely high.   

You can say, "his rookie season is a disappointment... I though he'd magically be like Tim Duncan as a rookie despite only playing a handful of college games, taking a year off of basketball and playing at 60% all season... instead we got rookie-esque Dwight Howard"

But saying, "he's a bust" is kinda silly.   Wait a few years to see what happens.  I'd be foolish to call him a bust right now.  Way too many questions and variables.  I'm not sure how much pain he's playing in, how limited his athleticism, strength and explosiveness is from coming off surgery, how limited his timing and feel for the game is after taking a year off...  how limited his game is from missing the preseason and the first couple weeks of the regular season... how much he's struggling to fit into a playoff team as a rookie and how difficult he's finding it to fit into his specific role (they aren't asking him to be a star) in limited minutes... how much the pressure of the rookie season is weighing on him and how much a difference it will make if he learns how to stay out of foul trouble... etc.

Durant got to spend an entire season in an empty Seattle arena jacking up shots, shooting a dreadful percentage on a team without any expectations whatsoever... got as many minutes as he needed and wasn't asked to play defense.   Now he's a 2nd year player in Oklahoma, making a lot of shots, shooting amazing percentages... without any expectations whatosever... gets as many minutes as he needs and isn't being asked to play defense.     I'd be equally foolish to say Oden is anywhere near Durant so far (especially considering I've posted like 8 threads about how amazing Durant is), but... It would be interesting to see how a healthy Oden would play in 40+ minutes on a bottomfeeder team that just let him do whatever he wanted.

Time... need time...

Oden couldn't play 40 minutes because of foul trouble (a problem with almost all young big men). He can barely play 20 min. So I'm not sure it's more time that he needs, he just needs to be healthy.

Also with Durant, it's not that hard to believe that once he is on a better team and gets good defensive coaches, he will be a good defender. He certainly has the drive.