Is Oden a bust?

[LarBrd33]

He just turned 21... hasn't been fully healthy

I think thats what people like me are starting to question as a number one draft pick, not his production. Will he ever be healthy? your going on 3 years now of constant, diffrenet injuries From the hand in college to the knee cap now, one of which was a major operation to his knee.

There were also whispers that he was very injury prone in H.S. what good is he as a #1 when he can't stay on the floor?

Maybe he'll have nagging injuries his whole career or maybe he won't.  But he's only 21...   we'll see.

Statistically he's putting up comparable numbers to our 6th year championship center ... and comparable numbers to Dwight Howard as a rookie despite the condition of his health. 

[BballTim]

nope

He's averaging 9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 23 minutes with 57% shooting.  

He just turned 21... hasn't been fully healthy.  It takes players a lot of time to return to proper form after microfracture surgery.  A lot of his supposed potential was based on his explosiveness, lift and athleticism.  Instead he gained too much upper body strength/weight and is trying to adjust to his new body, adjust to the NBA game after only playing a handful of College games, adjust to returning to basketball after being injured for a year... etc.

Dwight Howard as a rookie:  12 points, 10 rebounds, 1.7 blocks in 33 minutes with 52% shooting

Al Jefferson as a rookie:  6.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, .8 blocks in 15 minutes on 53% shooting

Too soon to call him a bust.  That's silly.

  But you're comparing someone 3 years out of HS with players 1 year out of HS, right?

[Mr October]

He just turned 21... hasn't been fully healthy

I think thats what people like me are starting to question as a number one draft pick, not his production. Will he ever be healthy? your going on 3 years now of constant, diffrenet injuries From the hand in college to the knee cap now, one of which was a major operation to his knee.

There were also whispers that he was very injury prone in H.S. what good is he as a #1 when he can't stay on the floor?

Maybe he'll have nagging injuries his whole career or maybe he won't.  But he's only 21...   we'll see.

Statistically he's putting up comparable numbers to our 6th year championship center ... and comparable numbers to Dwight Howard as a rookie despite the condition of his health. 

If Perkins were the #1 overall pick he would be considered a bust. Being the hyped #1 carries a lot more weight than any other first round pick.

I think you're judging him on a different scale.

[orrzor]

He is a bust in the sense that he was supposed to be the next Bill Russell or Tim Duncan and come in averaging 20/10. This was the expectation. He could still be an all-star center though, but the likelihood that he will be a HOF top big man seems less and less likely and his being chosen #1 seems like a mistake now.

[get_banners]

"bust" is the wrong word. "tragedy" is more appropriate if he can't stay healthy. well, "sam bowie" works, too. i remember a sports guy article before that draft warning that oden seemed like someone who would be very injury-prone (i think his argument was durant was the better #1 pick). so far, this looks to be right, though, again, he's not even two years into his career.

[Actionjakson]

It would have been realyyyyyyyyyy scary to see Brandon Roy and Kevin Durant on the floor together on the same team!

[kenmaine]

Probably, and even healthy he doesn't play like a #1 pick IMO. Good luck to him though, hope he can have at least a few good healthy seasons, maybe even lose in the finals to the C's sometime.

[LarBrd33]

He is a bust in the sense that he was supposed to be the next Bill Russell or Tim Duncan and come in averaging 20/10. This was the expectation. He could still be an all-star center though, but the likelihood that he will be a HOF top big man seems less and less likely and his being chosen #1 seems like a mistake now.

If he didn't average 20 and 10 in College why would he come in and average 20 and 10 in the NBA as a rookie?... especially after not playing ball for over a year and still getting in shape from microfracture surgery?

He was supposed to be on Dwight Howard's level and have the potential to be better... 

As I said... As a rookie Dwight averaged  12 points, 10 rebounds, 1.7 blocks in 33 minutes with 52% shooting.

As a rookie Greg is averaging 9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 23 minutes with 57% shooting. 

Project his minutes to 33 and he's getting 13 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 blocks  ....

Sounds about right.  He needs to learn how to stay out of foul trouble (he likely will with time), get proper basketball stamina (probably will with time), regain his explosiveness (probably will with time) ... and he'll get the minutes to do more. 

The guy only played a handful of games in College and missed most of his season because of a hand injury.  I know he lead his team to the national title game, but I fail to see how that half-season makes him that further advanced than a high school senior jumping to the pros.  We knew he was raw.  And right now some of his early potential greatness is lost by the fact that he's still technically rehabbing from serious surgery.    Way too early to say he's a "bust"...  Al Jefferson didn't amount to crap until his 3rd season.  If in a few years Greg is still hobbling around missing half his season and putting up mere double doubles... you can call him a bust, I guess.

Tim Duncan spent 4 years in College.   

I don't care if Greg is a few years older than Dwight was when he entered the league... he's still a raw NBA rookie with only a handful of College games making him more "experienced" than Howard was. 

[ToppersBsktball10]

I've been saying it since he got drafted

[LarBrd33]

I mean here is how I see it...  Stephon Marbury is a former NBA all-star... a borderline "franchise" player who has been in this league for years, understands the speed of the NBA game and how to produce in this league.  Despite being completely healthy and "in the best shape of his life", he takes a year off from basketball and is playing like absolute garbage right now coming off our bench.  I mean he looks terrible... we'd be better off with Gabe Pruitt out there.  But Marbury hopefully will get his basketball legs back, get his timing back, get familiar with this particular system and hopefully start contributing for us.   Then look at Greg Oden who is still playing with pain, is not 100% physically, has no explosiveness, has never played at this level and hasn't played any basketball in over a year... I think the most you can ask is for him to look capable... and he looks capable.

We will see what happens with time.  If he arguably better than our championship starting center while hobbled and a rookie, I'm interested to see what he'd look like healthy, with his explosiveness, with NBA experience under his belt, etc....

[jackson_34]

I'm not ready to label him a bust yet, but the poor guy has been hit with injury after injury which is hardley his fault. His rookie stats are pretty healthy for someone who he seems to always be carrying an injury.
I also think his impact on the Blazers is not what it would have been if he went to a team like the thunder where they need a decent center, the blazers are already solid deep with Aldrige and Joel Pryzbila.
He also seems like to much of a softie at heart, so he needs to get his Perk on and snarl at a few people. 

[nickagneta]

He is a bust in the sense that he was supposed to be the next Bill Russell or Tim Duncan and come in averaging 20/10. This was the expectation. He could still be an all-star center though, but the likelihood that he will be a HOF top big man seems less and less likely and his being chosen #1 seems like a mistake now.

As I said in my first post, Oden was always considered to be ready for excelling in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball, being a monster especially in the defensive low post. But his defense was always way ahead of his offense and his broken hand in college never allowed him to develop that end of his game. He was never thought to be a 20 PPG scorer right away or even within a couple of years. Here's a couple of scouting reports that confirm this:

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/story/greg_oden_nba_draft_profile27954

http://www.bullz-eye.com/sports/athletes/greg_oden.htm

These are just two reports but they have all said the same thing since high school, that being that he would acclimate almost immediately on defense and that the offensive game would eventually come around. I think that's a fairly good desciption of what he did this year. Next season look for some defensive dominance starting to show and some gradual offensive game. Oden's numbers in his first season compare favorably on a per minute basis with that of Yao Ming's first year and Yao is now the best center in the game(or one of the top two) 6 years later.

[BballTim]

He is a bust in the sense that he was supposed to be the next Bill Russell or Tim Duncan and come in averaging 20/10. This was the expectation. He could still be an all-star center though, but the likelihood that he will be a HOF top big man seems less and less likely and his being chosen #1 seems like a mistake now.

If he didn't average 20 and 10 in College why would he come in and average 20 and 10 in the NBA as a rookie?... especially after not playing ball for over a year and still getting in shape from microfracture surgery?

  Everyone thought he would because he averaged 16 and 10 with a broken right hand.

[LarBrd33]

He is a bust in the sense that he was supposed to be the next Bill Russell or Tim Duncan and come in averaging 20/10. This was the expectation. He could still be an all-star center though, but the likelihood that he will be a HOF top big man seems less and less likely and his being chosen #1 seems like a mistake now.

If he didn't average 20 and 10 in College why would he come in and average 20 and 10 in the NBA as a rookie?... especially after not playing ball for over a year and still getting in shape from microfracture surgery?

  Everyone thought he would because he averaged 16 and 10 with a broken right hand.

ok... so he's averaging 9 and 7 in 23 minutes with multiple ailments.  Fair enough translation as a rookie in the pros.

[orrzor]

I only think Oden is a bust for those saying he would be the next great big man ala Duncan/Russell (Howard obviously not in this class). I think Oden will be an all-star center likely, but it seems like Durant is the real special player out of that draft, and has more of a drive to win/absolutely loves to play the game.