In my opinion, Dwyane Wade is the MVP. I mean, the guy is just the living and playing definition of the expression "Most Valuable Player". He has been healthy during the whole season, he is putting up huge numbers, and his team is fifth in the East (and in the verge of jumping to the 4th place with the Hawks' consecutive losses)!
Moreover, his teammates are quite limited in terms of talent, and yet the Heat has been able to beat some big teams this season. That's why Wade is the real MVP, he's almost "perfect" in terms of individual talent and he involves his teammates perfectly, playing collective and for the win instead of just boosting his stats.
But I think that Kobe will win it this year, though he will be close with LeBron in the voting results. I regret that this award is now deeply linked with the MVP's team's record. Sure, thanks to this system, Kevin Durant can't be named MVP because of his team's record and it's logical, but I think that Wade definitely deserves this trophy because he's almost doing all the work in his team every night(whereas Kobe and LeBron have - at least - on All-Star in their roster) and he's getting the results.