HCA in the East: Is it really be all, end all of who ends up in the NBA Finals?

[Donoghus]

Currently, this is what Eastern Conference standings look like as of this morning:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Boston Celtics
3. Orlando Magic
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Miami Heat
6. Philadelphia 76ers
7. Detroit Pistons
8. Milwaukee Bucks

One common thought that has been permeating here for a few months now among several posters is the idea of the importance of home court advantage.  Many posters, myself, included dread the idea of a Celtics/Cavaliers Game 7 in Cleveland where the thought of Lebron playing in front of a home crowd will result in key calls going in the Cavs favor, that will in large part, lead to a Cavs victory.

Now a lot of debate might ensure regarding those final 2 or 3 playoff seeds but I'm looking past the projected 1st round matchups and what the potential 2nd round matchups could present for debate. 

Another concern on this board in the past has been the idea of "Atlanta Hawks give the Celtics matchup fits" and if you take a look at the two BOS/ATL matchups this year, you'll see that they were certainly not easy games for the C's and the Hawks could be 2-0 against BOS rather than 0-2.  Compound that with the 7 game playoff series of last spring and you have some reason for concern. 

As is, right now, you could be looking at CLE-ATL in the 2nd round (Season series tied 1-1_while the Celtics get a more "pleasing" matchup against the Orlando Magic if the playoffs played to form (BOS 2-0 in season series). 

Now, rather than an ATL-BOS matchup that could very well prove to be a hard battle for the Celtics, we end up with Orlando which might prove to be an easier series.  Meanwhile, you let Cleveland and Atlanta battle it out in what could be a prolonged series.  Ideally, Boston wins in 4-5 while a beat up winner of the CLE-ATL series comes into the ECF after a hard fought 6-7 game series.  (Of course, you only need to look to last year to see that a 7 game series survivor isn't necessarily dead in the water in the following series.) Still have to face one of those teams but you dodge the back-to-back aspect of it.   

So, what I'm asking is if the possibility of the Celtics grabbing the #2 seed in the East while avoiding the Atlanta Hawks offset any of the worry about not having home court advantage?

Btw, none of what I wrote above alleviates me that a Game 7 in Cleveland would be a scary as hell proposition, nonetheless.

Just an idea that I thought I'd throw out there for some debate.

[Quinn]

I checked the standings this morning, and Boston is still in first.
Safe to say, its not too bold to say that Cleveland will eventually take that spot.

[Roy Hobbs]

I think potentially having to play Detroit in the first round, Orlando in the second, then going on the road in Cleveland, makes it much more difficult for us.  I think it reduces our odds significantly, although we obviously still have a fighting chance.

[illantari]

Two things:
1. I don't think Atlanta is as much of a match up problem for the Cavs as they are for us.  Part of the problem we had with Atlanta was due to the fact that they're crazy athletic and young.  Cavs have got Lebron.  Problem solved.  I still think that a Bos-Orl matchup would go to more games than a Cle-Atl matchup, even with Jameer Nelson out.

2. Tas Melas of the basketball jones made this point, and I think I agree with him, that Orlando is a tough matchup for Cleveland.  DHoward is one of the only people who can really alter the way Lebron shoots.  Ideally, if we could get the one seed, we would see a really, really tough series between Cavs and Magic in the second round that would tire whoever comes out.  And, there is even a slim, slim, slim chance that the Magic could win that series.  (Notice I said slim three times).  Whoever comes out and then has to face us in the conference finals will be tired out.

Plus, the Piston are the 7th seed right now.  Sure, they're falling apart.  But they're really annoying to play.  So in summary, I think HCA is going to be very important.  More important in the ECF than in the Finals, probably, but still important.  Is it definitive of the outcome?  Probably not by itself.  But considering how scary this Cavs team is, it might come pretty close.

[cordobes]

I'd rather play Atlanta than Orlando. The Magic are a much better team.

I also believe Orlando would have a chance of taking out Cleveland, making life much easier for us.

As Roy Hobbs say, a Detroit/Orlando/Cleveland/LAL succession of series is quite scary.

[Carhole]

Why do we still give detroit credit as a possible problem? They are a bad basketball team and even more importantly the way they play, plays right into our hands. No running athletes. Jump shooters at every position. No huge size mismatches for us.

It is all about matchups and Detroit is low hanging fruit for the Celtics.

[fairweatherfan]

Don't forget, we're #1 where it really counts:  The Hollinger power rankings!!!! 

[Toine43]

I think potentially having to play Detroit in the first round, Orlando in the second, then going on the road in Cleveland, makes it much more difficult for us.  I think it reduces our odds significantly, although we obviously still have a fighting chance.

At first, the thought of drawing Detroit, Orlando, and Cleveland made me groan. But after thinking about it for a bit longer, it might not be so bad. I say that because of Detroit and Orlando, who sound like much tougher opponents than they actually may be. The Celtics seem to have Detroit's number this year, and they are just not the same team with Mr. Team Killer, Allen Iverson. The Magic also sound tough, because they've been near the top of the standings all year. But there's a very good chance that Atlanta will be the bigger threat in the playoffs, especially to the Celtics, who notoriously have trouble with the Hawks. On the other hand, I think that in a series against Orlando, the Celtics would win either in a sweep or in 5 games. Of course, that game 7 in Cleveland is scary, but that's the only part of this scenario that scares me.

[Roy Hobbs]

I think potentially having to play Detroit in the first round, Orlando in the second, then going on the road in Cleveland, makes it much more difficult for us.  I think it reduces our odds significantly, although we obviously still have a fighting chance.

At first, the thought of drawing Detroit, Orlando, and Cleveland made me groan. But after thinking about it for a bit longer, it might not be so bad. I say that because of Detroit and Orlando, who sound like much tougher opponents than they actually may be. The Celtics seem to have Detroit's number this year, and they are just not the same team with Mr. Team Killer, Allen Iverson. The Magic also sound tough, because they've been near the top of the standings all year. But there's a very good chance that Atlanta will be the bigger threat in the playoffs, especially to the Celtics, who notoriously have trouble with the Hawks. On the other hand, I think that in a series against Orlando, the Celtics would win either in a sweep or in 5 games. Of course, that game 7 in Cleveland is scary, but that's the only part of this scenario that scares me.

Don't underrate Orlando.  We've played them well so far this year, but they won the season series against us last year.  They're not a pushover.

[nickagneta]

Home court is huge this year but I think it has more to do with the officiating than iot does the matchups. Home cooking in the NBA for teams with marketable superstars(Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Paul, and the Big Three but to a lesser extent) has been as bad as I have ever seen it. Last year I was a firm believer that the refs were trying to be impartial but as the year rolled along doubts crept in. This year, there is no doubt in my mind that either the NBA referees are incompetent, corrupt, or have a standing mandate from above to call certain games a certain way.

That Indiana-Cleveland game where Granger and LeBron shared last second fouls was about the only game all year where I didn't see the calls go only for the superstar late in the fourth quarter. This year the officiating has been embarassing and I think having raucous home court crowds bending the ears of officials will actually decide at least one playoff series this year and maybe more. Given that feeling, I'd rather not take the chance of having to play 4 games somewhere else and have the advantage of having those crowds behind the Celtics the majority of the time and not against us.

[Donoghus]

Consider a few possible scenarios for Boston in the East if it held form (which is still far from certain):

A:  DET, ORL (ATL-CLE), CLE (No Home Court)
B:  DET, ATL (ORL-CLE), CLE (No Home Court)
C:  MIL, ATL (ORL-CLE), CLE (With Home Court)
D:  MIL, ORL (ATL-CLE), CLE (With Home Court)

Personally, I don't see Atlanta jumping Orlando as the 3 seed so D looks a bit far-fetched.  B could be the same case.

Now you're left with A & C.  Which gives you the most peace of mind?

(This thread is purely just fodder for discussion.  Obviously, I'd love the home court advantage but I'm trying to look at it from a matchup standpoint as well not just the Celtics matchups but also what would be occurring in the other East Semi-Final)

[Toine43]

I think potentially having to play Detroit in the first round, Orlando in the second, then going on the road in Cleveland, makes it much more difficult for us.  I think it reduces our odds significantly, although we obviously still have a fighting chance.

At first, the thought of drawing Detroit, Orlando, and Cleveland made me groan. But after thinking about it for a bit longer, it might not be so bad. I say that because of Detroit and Orlando, who sound like much tougher opponents than they actually may be. The Celtics seem to have Detroit's number this year, and they are just not the same team with Mr. Team Killer, Allen Iverson. The Magic also sound tough, because they've been near the top of the standings all year. But there's a very good chance that Atlanta will be the bigger threat in the playoffs, especially to the Celtics, who notoriously have trouble with the Hawks. On the other hand, I think that in a series against Orlando, the Celtics would win either in a sweep or in 5 games. Of course, that game 7 in Cleveland is scary, but that's the only part of this scenario that scares me.

Don't underrate Orlando.  We've played them well so far this year, but they won the season series against us last year.  They're not a pushover.

I am probably underrating Orlando, but my logic has more to do with my fear of Atlanta than anything else. The way I see it, we'll beat whoever we play in the 1st round easily, whether our opponent is Detroit or an even worse team. But in the 2nd round, don't you think Atlanta might be a tougher series than Orlando, considering the recent history between the Cs and the Hawks?