Well it is time to reassess things here going into the stretch drive - Teams can be divided into 5 categories - Candidates for contraction, Going nowhere, Hoping to be one and done, One and done, possible 2nd rounders, contenders.
Candidates for Contraction -
30. Sacremento - what a mess this franchise has become. Aside from Kevin Martin, Drew Gooden, Andres Nocioni, and maybe Spencer Hawes, this team will be a bottom feeder for a long time.
29. Oklahoma City - Kevin Durant should have stayed at Texas. Getting Sefolosha was goodness, but the roster needs a lot of work still.
28. LA Clippers - nuff said here
27. Memphis - Owner doesn't want to compete and the College team outdraws the professional team in yearly attendence...... This team will go away in 2 seasons.
26. Toronto - The process has begun in dismantling this franchise - Bosh will never stay here. Bye Bye, Raptors.
25. Washington - Even Gilbert Arenas cannot save this franchise from ruin.
Going Nowhere -
24. Minnesota - Al Jefferson is injured which is too bad for Minnesota. The Celtic JV team was playing competitively with him in there. Even Bassy looks decent.
23. Golden State - This is the classic flat-line 35 win a year team. Not good enough for the playoffs, but not bad enough to land franchise players. They will spoil on occasion at Oracle.
22. Indiana - same comment as Golden State - little wonder why there is a long trade history between the two. With Obie, it is live by the 3, die by the 3.
21. Charlotte - some good trades have helped this team out of contraction. Bad attendence will have this team relocate up I-95 to Washington to backfill for the Wizards.
20. New York Knicks - Progressing nicely under D'Antoni and GM Donnie Walsh. Roster needs work but I think they are heading in the right direction. I would not put all my eggs in the Lebron basket, however.
19. New Jersey - They have Devon Harris and little else. That is not enough to get it done in this league.
One and Doners
18. Milwaukee - They need get healthy 1st. Two they must retain their talent. I'm not real confident they will hold on.
17. Detriot - Oh boy they have fallen. That was a sorry trade they made with Denver this year. There is enough of a talent base to rebuild quickly if the fans and sponsors can afford to support this historic franchise.
16. Chicago - I forgot about this team. They traded with Sacremento and Brad Miller came back to CHicago. They can earn a spot in the playoffs and possibly knock out Detriot or Milwaukee.
15. Philadelphia - Back on track for another playoff appearence. Getting Elton Brand did nothing for them, unfortunately.
14. Phoenix - Cheapskate owner screwed them out of Rajon Rondo and frankly this team is sinking quickly. They have aging veterans who tie up the cap and little in the way of a young talent base to take over. Next year, they will miss the playoffs and they will have to get help to get in the spring tournament this year.
13. Miami - Good young talent base and now they picked up Jermaine O'Neal who can help with his veteran leadership. They have Dewayne Wade and Micheal Beasley who will do a lot of damage in this league.
Possible 2nd rounders:
Math dictates that all these teams will not make the 2nd round, particularly in the balanced Western Conference.
12. Dallas - Tough veteran team will always battle to the final buzzer.
11. New Orleans - Tough loss in LA, but it shows they are capable of playing with the best.
10. Utah - A couple of message wins at home over LA and Boston, this team will come on but they need message roadies in Texas and in their own tough division.
9. Houston - I thought they would be the team to move up but something is not quite right here. I wonder if they should be dropped to one and done. Still, Yao is a great player and Ron Artest is not the problem. T-Mac is the problem.
8. Atlanta - Boston Celtics can attest that this team is a formidable foe. Maybe they can beat on Cleveland in the 2nd round.
7. Orlando - The Jameer Nelson injury is a brutal blow but I think they get the #3 seed.
6. Portland - The LA's, Clevelands, San Antonio's, and especially Boston's of the World better get theirs now. We'll all be answering to Portland in the future and the team lucky enough to employ Lebron in the future.
5. Denver - Not too many people pay attention to this team. But I'm sure you remember Chauncey Billups torching the Celtics on their home court.
Contenders - Locks for conference champions
4. San Antonio - They appear to be back on track to play the Lakers in the WC finals. They have a chance to beat them in a Seven Game series but their role players will have to step up and outplay the Laker role players.
3. Boston Celtics - That 2 and 7 stretch after the 27-2 start still bothers me. KG's injury bothers me. February road trips bother me. THe 1 and 4 record against teams in this final four group bother me. But, I keep faith in the leprecahns and Red Auerbachs spinning cigar clouds coming out of a Kansas thunderstorm that the record will be set straight by Father's Day.
2. Cleveland Caveliers - No excuses for them this year not to go to the finals. This is a make or break year for this franchise before Lebron decides his next career move.
1. LA Lakers - Very, very disturbing development that we be a witness to Jackson's 10th title. They must be stopped at all costs. If I'm driving down I-35 in June to see the Celtics on The Riverwalk, then losing the 1997 lottery will have been worth it.
I hope to be writing a rosier projection in two months time but face reality that there is a lot of work for the Celtics to do starting with backfilling the two roster spots vacated by the Sam Cassall and Patrick O'Bryant. And thats the way the NBA is, Sunday, February 22, 2009.