Hall of Fame probability

[BigAlTheFuture]

LOL at McGrady.

[Birdbrain]

I hate hate hate this.

First, the author is clearly using a technique called data mining. Just looking for the best fitting model with little mechanistic understanding. By doing a regression on every combination of variables, he's finding those variables that correlate best with HOF entry. Correlation does not equal causation. This is why height is a covariate. I don't really believe that HOF voters weigh height of the players that heavily.

Second, MVPs get too much weight. Yes, you could argue that every MVP winner is in the HOF. But is that because he won an MVP or because his other stats and championships won are higher?

Third, all star game selections? Really? Considering Yi was almost voted in by the (Chinese) fans and that T-Mac and AI continue to start the games doesn't give much credence to this predictor.

Fourth, I love statistics (as you know), but there are some things they can't show. Defense (besides steals and blocks - which are used in this formula), intangibles and leadership abilities, for example. That's why trying to predict a player's HOF chances using this formula is just stupid.

Looking at some of the rankings gives me a heart attack:

Reggie Miller (185)
Artis Gilmore (147)
Chris Mullen (145)

are all lower than

Antoine Walker (133)
Jack Sikma (105)
Gilbert Arenas (92)

And the all-time assists and steals leader John Stockton at 75 with an 81% chance of HOF entry? Are you freaking kidding me?

Thank you for this post. TP.

[Rondo_is_better]

I hate hate hate this.

First, the author is clearly using a technique called data mining. Just looking for the best fitting model with little mechanistic understanding. By doing a regression on every combination of variables, he's finding those variables that correlate best with HOF entry. Correlation does not equal causation. This is why height is a covariate. I don't really believe that HOF voters weigh height of the players that heavily.

Second, MVPs get too much weight. Yes, you could argue that every MVP winner is in the HOF. But is that because he won an MVP or because his other stats and championships won are higher?

Third, all star game selections? Really? Considering Yi was almost voted in by the (Chinese) fans and that T-Mac and AI continue to start the games doesn't give much credence to this predictor.

Fourth, I love statistics (as you know), but there are some things they can't show. Defense (besides steals and blocks - which are used in this formula), intangibles and leadership abilities, for example. That's why trying to predict a player's HOF chances using this formula is just stupid.

Looking at some of the rankings gives me a heart attack:

Reggie Miller (185)
Artis Gilmore (147)
Chris Mullen (145)

are all lower than

Antoine Walker (133)
Jack Sikma (105)
Gilbert Arenas (92)

And the all-time assists and steals leader John Stockton at 75 with an 81% chance of HOF entry? Are you freaking kidding me?

I share your outrage. I didn't know why until you explained the math to me, but I share your outrage. TP.