Who Should Win (with the caveat that I have not seen The Dark Knight)
Best picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Gus Van Sant, Milk. He should have won for Good Will Hunting or Elephant.
Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk, Mickey Rourke, the Wrestler. Both performances deserve it.
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger will probably get it posthumously. I have no selection here, since I did not see his performance.
Best Actress: Melissa Leo, Frozen River. I also liked Jolie in Changeling
Supporting Actress: Marisa Thomei, The Wrestler.
Adapted Screenplay: John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Original Screenplay: In Bruges, Martin McDonagh. Very powerful dialogue.