The Bench: Unfairly Criticized?

[Fan from VT]

The most common criticisms this season have been directed towards the play of our bench, or "second unit." I've set out to simply examine, to the best of my abilities, whether or not these criticisms have more than an anecdotal basis.

With the recent playing time of Gabe Pruitt, I think that we can mostly agree that the second unit consists of some combination of:
Pruitt, House, Tony, Powe, Scal and Davis.

Let's look at the big picture.

-In '07-'08, the most frequently seen lineup was
1. Rondo, Ray, Pierce, Garnett, Perkins.    +388

-In '08-'09, the most frequently seen lineup has been
1. Rondo, Ray, Pierce, Garnett Perkins.    +168

This makes sense. These are the starters, nothing has changed in the starting lineup; they play together most frequently.


Look a little closer:
In terms of playing time, the next most frequently used lineups were/are:

-'07-'08:
2. Rondo-T.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins   +74
3. Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Garnett    +15
4. House-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins    +16

-'08-'09
2. House-T.Allen-Pierce-Powe-Davis    +24
3. House-T.Allen-R.Allen-Powe-Davis        +13
4. House-T.Allen-Powe-Scalabrine-Davis    -8

What's interesting here is that the data confirms an observation I made in the most recent Game Thread from Friday:
In '07-'08, Doc's use of "Bench" meant mixing in bench players with AT LEAST 2 starters (in the above cases, just one bench player with 4 starters!), whereas this season, lineups 2 and 3 in frequency have just one starter, and the 4th most frequent lineup has NO STARTERS (I would like to note that for lineup 4 82games.com seems to have the lineup incorrect; I assume that Scal plays SF and Powe the PF position). In other words, unlike last season, this season Doc really is sending in nearly a full "second unit."


FYI, here are the rest of the lineups used this year and last, in order of most time on the floor together:

-'07-'08:

5.House-T.Allen-Posey-Powe-Davis        -3
6.House-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Garnett     +8
7.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Davis        +9
8.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Powe      +23
9.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Davis         +4
10.House-T.Allen-R.Allen-Posey-Davis       +33
11.House-T.Allen-R.Allen-Posey-Powe    +19
12.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Scalabrine-Perkins    +17
13.T.Allen-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins     +20
14.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Perkins      -18
15.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Pollard       +31
16.Rondo-Pierce-Posey-Garnett-Perkins    +7
17.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Garnett     +25
18.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Davis        +8
19.Cassell-T.Allen-Posey-Brown-Davis     +6
20.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Powe    -14

-'08-'09

5.House-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins     +15
6.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Powe-Garnett     +30
7.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Davis     +15
8.Rondo-T.Allen-R.Allen-Garnett-Perkins    -5
9.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Scalabrine-Perkins     +12
10.House-Pruitt-T.Allen-Powe-Davis    +6



Again, let's look closer.
In this current season, only two lineups used by the Celtics have been outscored by opponents, as indicated by the +/- number to the right of the lineup. This is an absolute number, so it is not adjusted for playing time*. But it does give us some ideas. For example, during the '08-'09 season, the lineup of House, Tony, Pierce, Powe and Davis has scored 24 more points than it has allowed. That's a success in my book, as it means a lead was increased while four starters were sitting. The two lineups that have been outscored over the course of this season are:

4. House-T.Allen-Powe-Scalabrine-Davis    -8
8.Rondo-T.Allen-R.Allen-Garnett-Perkins    -5


The previous season, there were only 3 units that were outplayed while on the court:

5.House-T.Allen-Posey-Powe-Davis        -3
14.Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Perkins      -18
20.House-T.Allen-Pierce-Posey-Powe    -14


What this seems to show is that despite what a lot of us have seemed to observe, over the course of this season our bench has done a reasonable job of sustaining or even building leads. Perhaps because they are clearly not as good as our starters they seem to be doing worse than they actually are. Or perhaps the bench has periods of losing leads quickly, as many observe, but at other times slowly can build leads so that over the course of the season they have overall outperformed their opponents but we are left remembering the times they blew leads quickly while not acknowledging building a one or two point lead. I don't know for sure, but it seems like the problems with our bench are overblown.

When you also consider that the 6 bench players mentioned earn a collective 13.57 million compared to 65.95 mil for the 5 starters, the discrepancy is easy to understand. We can't expect a "second unit" of 4-5 bench players at a time to play as well as the starters do. It just can't happen.


Additionally, as someone who is on record with agreeing that Posey was not worth the 4 year contract he received from New Orleans, I would like to point out that Posey was involved on all of last season's outplayed units, as well as the feature bench player on the most frequent "all bench" unit, which was the 5th most common lineup used by the Celtics last year and was out-dueled over the course of the season. Put another way, in '07-'08, the top 4 most frequently used lineups had AT LEAST 4 starters. The first "mostly-sub" lineup was the 5th lineup of all bench players, presumably anchored by Posey, and that lineup was outscored over the course of the season; Posey was not quite the bench savior/leader off the bench we believe he was. I do not think he would make this season's "all-bench" lineups significantly better.




So, most important from this quick research?
-Doc is more committed to playing more subs together at the same time this year than last year.
-All-sub lineups did just as poorly last season as this season
-The bench has not been as bad as it seems this season













* For those that are curious, here's the teams +/- by unit adjusted on a per-minute basis:

08-'09   
Unit   "+/-" per Minute
1   0.291
2   0.247
3   0.194
4   -0.216
5   0.455
6   0.909
7   0.517
8   -0.238
9   0.632
10   0.333
   
   
07-'08   
Unit   "+/-" per Minute
1   0.369
2   0.465
3   0.105
4   0.162
5   -0.033
6   0.093
7   0.117
8   0.303
9   0.057
10   0.559
11   0.322
12   0.333
13   0.476
14   -0.429
15   0.795
16   0.184
17   0.658
18   0.242
19   0.188
20   -0.452

[cornbreadsmart]

i can't believe people look at stats like this. numbers make my head hurt.

[xmuscularghandix]

COMPLETELY unfair. the other night when people were trashing the bench they were playing against starters. and because of that our starters got against their bench in the 3rd quarter. then of course we won by 18. our bench is very solid. but i understand we have to complain about something. 

[billysan]

Simple facts beyond all the numbers are this:

Our bench plays as well as can be expected on most nites. They usually play well above their so called talent level and their biggest enemy is inconsistency. They stay highly motivated, accept their roles and make sacrifices for the good of the team on a regular basis. Sure we could maybe upgrade a few positions but finding players with the kind of heart these guys have isnt easy. It takes time to build the cohesiveness these guys have as a unit.

We will not significantly improve our bench any time soon because of the salary cap and a lack of draft picks. This severely restricts player movement and unless a player wants to play for less money to get a ring......well we know how many of those are out there dont we.

As long as we are winning at a high rate and going deep into the playoffs, why should we change anything?

[Fafnir]

Our starting 5 is the best in the league. Our bench is average, in my opinion. So they're inconsistent and almost always look bad next to our starting unit.

[nickagneta]

I think what the OP is trying to say is that Doc is using two separate teams, the starters and the bench and that the bench unit isn't very good. Each player on the bench gives a tremendous effort and has a lot of strengths to offer this team.

It's a good bench. It's not a good collective 5 person playing all together bench. With a lineup of Pruitt, Powe, Davis, TAllen, and House there is no height, no length, bad ball movement, little to no scoring punch, and a major lack of chemistry. Some teams and players just don't play well together because of a lack of cohesion and chemistry. You can almost feel it with the second unit.

As I said in response to Steve's front page article perhaps Doc giving players more shorter rests and intigrating the bench so that two to three starters are always on the floor, the efficacy of the bench as a whole would be better.

On the other hand that would mean having the starters playing all together less and maybe that wouldn't be good for the team as a whole. Guess we'll never know unless Doc tries it which is probably pretty doubtful as he just loves the two team concept.

[CoachBo]

Exactly. There are pieces on the bench that are worthwhile - Powe is one example - but as a unit, it's not very good at all. It has no length, not enough outside shooting with only House, not enough basketball smarts and is missing a true lockdown defender - Tony isn't it.

Danny clearly knows this, and changes will be forthcoming. Good for him.

[Fafnir]

Exactly. There are pieces on the bench that are worthwhile - Powe is one example - but as a unit, it's not very good at all. It has no length, not enough outside shooting with only House, not enough basketball smarts and is missing a true lockdown defender - Tony isn't it.

Danny clearly knows this, and changes will be forthcoming. Good for him.

Also in the playoffs I don't think we'll see him use this rotation.

[TitleMaster]

Hence, with the addition of PJ Brown as a 4/5 and 'Toine, as a point forward 3, we maintain our lead.

Then, in that scenario, we have PJ, KG, and AW up front and EH a/ TA in the back.

Now, here are the key plays during 'Toine's 5-10 min spurt.., have him stay outside the paint, look for a clear pass to PJ, for a backcutter for a TA slash. Then, alternate play, get the pass to Kevin for him to draw a double team, with a similar idea of a cutter to TA. And finally, loop about for Eddie House to take an outside shot. And last but not least... jack a three when all other options are utilized.

[nickagneta]

Hence, with the addition of PJ Brown as a 4/5 and 'Toine, as a point forward 3, we maintain our lead.

Then, in that scenario, we have PJ, KG, and AW up front and EH a/ TA in the back.

Now, here are the key plays during 'Toine's 5-10 min spurt.., have him stay outside the paint, look for a clear pass to PJ, for a backcutter for a TA slash. Then, alternate play, get the pass to Kevin for him to draw a double team, with a similar idea of a cutter to TA. And finally, loop about for Eddie House to take an outside shot. And last but not least... jack a three when all other options are utilized.

Way to hijack this thread into another bring back Antoine thread.

[Toine43]

Hence, with the addition of PJ Brown as a 4/5 and 'Toine, as a point forward 3, we maintain our lead.

Then, in that scenario, we have PJ, KG, and AW up front and EH a/ TA in the back.

Now, here are the key plays during 'Toine's 5-10 min spurt.., have him stay outside the paint, look for a clear pass to PJ, for a backcutter for a TA slash. Then, alternate play, get the pass to Kevin for him to draw a double team, with a similar idea of a cutter to TA. And finally, loop about for Eddie House to take an outside shot. And last but not least... jack a three when all other options are utilized.

See, that's where you're missing the point. We don't need more offensive firepower off the bench to "maintain our lead," because in the playoffs we're not going to use an all bench lineup. Therefore, Antoine Walker is not needed on this team. A veteran big such as PJ Brown is, but that's really it, unless you're one of those people who can't stand TA and wants to replace him with a vet.

And if you want proof that we don't need any more offense off the bench see last year's roster.


TP to Fan from VT for taking to time to compile those stats and make his case.

[Fan from VT]

Sorry this got lost in the length of my post, but my question was to figure out if there was anything that jumped out indicating that our bench was bad this year. Turns out, there was not.

So, most important from this quick research?
-Doc is more committed to playing more subs together at the same time this year than last year.
-All-sub lineups did just as poorly last season as this season
-The bench has not been as bad as it seems this season

Basically, I found that Doc has a lot more subs playing together a lot more of the time. Obviously a unit made up of a majority of bench players is not as good as a mix of bench and starters, so this trend of Doc's has made the bench appear worse than it is; in actuality, it seems our bench is playing well.

[CoachBo]

Those numbers, while interesting, are not a 100 percent accurate measure of what a player's getting done on the floor. They don't measure, for example, an open man missed on a backcut, leaving the floor on an upfake or a failure to box out a man on the glass. In sum, there aren't a set of stats that can accurately assess a player's mental understanding of basketball - the ability to think the game. Only a tape and a trained eye can do that.

I understand the fascination with sabermetrics, but they are not terribly useful in basketball.

[Toine43]

Those numbers, while interesting, are not a 100 percent accurate measure of what a player's getting done on the floor. They don't measure, for example, an open man missed on a backcut, leaving the floor on an upfake or a failure to box out a man on the glass. In sum, there aren't a set of stats that can accurately assess a player's mental understanding of basketball - the ability to think the game. Only a tape and a trained eye can do that.

I understand the fascination with sabermetrics, but they are not terribly useful in basketball.

Of course statistics cannot account for the things you're mentioning. But how can you argue with what these stats in particular are saying, which is that this year's all bench unit is getting outscored by a similar margin to last year's all bench unit? We're not talking about individuals here. You'd be correct if you said that a single player's value to a team cannot be completetely measured by stats. But there's nothing at all abstract about the stats that Fan from VT has provided.

[TerreHaute]

I don't believe this is a fair debate, YET, for three reasons:

1) Doc seems to be using the bench in an entirely different fashion this year than last.

2) I don't believe that Doc will continue with this substitution pattern as the season progresses into the playoffs.

3) I don't believe this year's bench is complete. Hopefully we can add length to play the back-up center position for the stretch run.

While I do think that the bench will eventually play a key role in how this season ends, I think it is a bit premature to make judgements.