Star Players in their 14th Season and Beyond

[Big Ticket]

Kareem Abdul Jabber

Scoring average dipped to between 5-13 PPG below his peak years.
Rebounding average dropped to 7.5, 7.3, 7.9, then worse.
Drop in blocks and steals.

Charles Barkley

PPG average dropped to between 14.5 and 16.1 over final 3 seasons.
Rebound average stayed consistent - the Round Mound of Rebound stayed true.
Major dropoff in FG%.
Most significant dropoff was in Games - 68, 42, 20 GP in his 14, 15, and 16th seasons.

Karl & Moses Malone

Drop off of 7-10 PPG from peak scoring abilities.
Noticeable drop in RPG.
Noticeable drop in FG%.

Wilt Chamberlain

14th season was last of his career... 13 PPG scoring.

Gary Payton

Drop to 14.6 points and 5.5 assists per game in last effective season.

Shaq

Last season averaging 20 PPG.
No more seasons of 10 RPG.
Last title as a key piece came in 14th season.
Significant decline in Blocks, GP, MPG.

Hakeem Olajuwon

Starting with 14th season, PPG averages of 16.4, 18.9, 10.3, 11.9, 7.1.
No seasons of 10 RPG.
Drop offs in blocks and assists.

Michael Jordan

Two words... Washington Wizards.

Pettit

Retired after 11th season.

Magic

Retired after 12th season.  Period.

Bird

Retired after 13th season.

Cousy

Essentially retired after 13 seasons.

Havlicek

Decent production in 14-16th seasons, but noticeable fall in PTS-REB-AST.  (Should be noted that his per 36 numbers were not far off from his peak years... suggesting most noticeable fall was simply minutes).

Spencer Haywood

14th and final season was mostly as a non-factor.

Bill Russell

Only 13 wonderful seasons.

David Robinson

14th and final season mostly as a role player.
Started late (age 24), noticeable drop at age 33.


I may be a bigger Garnett fan than anyone here, and seeing some rough games and lower production this far may be tougher for me than anyone here.  But history doesn't lie.  Players really do not stay dominant into their 14th season or beyond.

I know this is not the final verdict.  KG came in as a 19 year old... most of these players were a year or two later.  KG hasn't played quite as many playoff games as most of these player did.  It could be argued that the younger and supposedly fresher KG should last longer.  But there is another side.  KG plays harder than just about anyone ever - playing harder takes more of a toll on your body.  KG also missed fewer games than just about anybody - which a durability record just about on par with Karl Malone.  He also has a legendary offseason workout regimen - more stress on the body.  In the long run, I think the games played and starting age mostly come out in the wash. 

I'm not trying to make excuses for KG somewhat slow start, I've just come to grips that I can't expect the type of thing I became accustomed to from him.  I do not for one second think his time as a very effective player is over.  Too many of his traits will carry over even after he slows down even more.  I just think sometimes people forget how much tread is on KG's legs... he's an old man in NBA years, and he can't keep up dominating for too much longer.

And on a side note, I am starting to think it might have a tiny bit to do with the increased volatility of his behavior.  I am positive that he is noticing the aging, and somewhat as competitive as he is cannot easily cope with that knowledge.   

[Fan from VT]

Nice research. It's scary, and I'm glad we won the title last year instead of banking on them coming through within the next 2 years.

[Schupac]

Good post, Big Ticket.  One thing I think will raise your spirits a little is when you consider how these players are taken care of now.  For example, Bill Russell played 13 season but the guy didn't have a team of personal trainers and dieticians watching over him, he didn't have protein powder and weight training supplements, etc.  I think that has to add a year or two to modern players vs. their older counterparts.

Sort of like a car that gets the occasional oil change and the car that is taken in for a full service tune up ever couple thousand miles.

[Sweet17]

I think Garnett is already a bit off from his prime. That being said his build is like Parish. I expect him to be good in his later years.

[thebirdman]

Well, ages of these players in their 14th season are also very significant:

Kareem Abdul Jabber
35
Charles Barkley
34
Karl Malone
35
Moses Malone
32
Wilt Chamberlain
35
Shaq
33
Hakeem Olajuwon
35
Bird
retired after 13 seasons at 35
David Robinson
37

And it is tough to compare big man and guards. Even big, heavy centers like Shaq, Wilt are a poor comparison to KG... Someone like Karl Malone is the best comparison, IMO. The players are also much better prepared than in the past, so I expect KG to be one of the best PF in the league until he is 36.

[kw10]

TP for a great post.

As you probably know I'm a huge KG fan too, what I look at nowadays are not his production, but rather how many rings he'll get before he hang his sneakers up. Maybe that'll help you feel better even with his personal productions on the court declining.

Also I think KG hits the gym hard in the offseason in order to take care of the wear and tear during the season. So don't think we have to worry about that, he's just putting some extra meat on and conditioning to protect his body.

[moiso]

It is sad but its a fact of nba life.  I agree that with his skills and body type he will be be good for several more years, but the days of chasing down 14 rebounds every game appear to be gone.  He'll always be tall and he'll always hit that jumpshot and play good defense however, and he still has athleticism to spare at his position.  One thing also in his favor- the guy hardly ever gets hurt.  The abdominal problem was the exception.  A lot of those guys on the list were always fighting one injury or another as they got older.

[BballTim]

  The best comparisons to KG would be other bigs with similar body types (like Kareem or Hakeem). Age comparisons would probably be as valuable as years played. And you should look at their per36 or per48 numbers and not their totals. Kareem, for instance, had his rebounding numbers decline but was still scoring about as well at 38 as at 28, just playing 33 minutes a game instead of 40+.

[Roy Hobbs]

Don't forget Havlicek:

14th: 17.0 ppg, FG% above career average
 
15th: 17.7 ppg, FG% above career average

16th: 16.1 ppg, FG% above career average

Yep, Hondo was an amazing player.

(Reggie Miller was effective through 15 seasons, as well.  In his 16th and 17th, he fell off.)

[BudweiserCeltic]

People get fascinated with the per game stats. There's also a reduction in minutes that highly influence the per game productivity. He's not in his top shooting shape, but he isn't far off from the norm either. It's early in the season and one good/bad game has a lot of weight on the average.

We'll see how it goes through the rest of the season. The only real thing that bothers me with Garnett are his travelling violations.

[Fafnir]

People get fascinated with the per game stats. There's also a reduction in minutes that highly influence the per game productivity. He's not in his top shooting shape, but he isn't far off from the norm either. It's early in the season and one good/bad game has a lot of weight on the average.

We'll see how it goes through the rest of the season. The only real thing that bothers me with Garnett are his travelling violations.

A good example of that are Garnett's per game statistics from last year. He's not what he was from 2000 to 2004 but he's still plenty good to be the centerpiece of a title team.

[BillfromBoston]

THERE are SOOOOOOO many variables being left out of this equation, so simply saying "year 14, we're f-d, doesn't cut it"

1. What type of game creates his points and rebounds? KG - jump shooter, positional and range rebounder (conducive to long-term production

2. What type of health/body type does he have? He is extremely fit and has a lithe, athletic body type. (Conducive to longevity)

3. Age (already covered)

4. Role responsibility. How did minutes, shots, overall usage change to effect production? (KG is being used less than in his Minny days, but  very much still central in his Celtics usage,  conducive to Celtic-esque production peak.)

5. What was the story behind the other player's decline? Where are the similarities beyond years of service? (Gotta look at the above questions for those on your list.)

I don't see a lot of similarities to most of these guys - I see KG as much more Karl Malone and Kareem than the others - those guys stats decreased mostly due to improved depth on their teams which was by design - taking the load off...and they were still very productive players...KG isn't ever going to put up 22/14 again, but in 30-33 mpg, I expect 3-4 more seasons of 18/9-10, which is all you need...

...and most importantly, he will still have big time game, just in less volume as before - again, not needed in previous volume becuause of Pierce/Ray and others...

[cordobes]

The best indication of a decline in athleticism is the rebounding rate. Garnett DRB% is up by almost a point from last season (and above his career average) and his ORB% is down by 0.6. There are three variables that must be considered: how Posey's minutes are being allocated, if he's playing offensively further away from the basket and the strength of the schedule rebounding wise. Better wait for a bigger example to draw some conclusions, but there's no glaring evidence of a quick physical decline so far (although he's obviously not the same player, athletic wise, he was 4 years ago).

[Big Ticket]

Just to point it out.... I'm not sure if many of you read what I wrote after the names... I covered most of the complaints/issues you all had with this.