Whose job looks safe and whose looks in jeopardy? (Red Sox)

[Triboy16]

-Jed lowrie is slowly day by day taking the job away from Julio Lugo. He is not only better than lugo this year, but better than him even by last years comparison. (maybe the orioles or mets will take him haha)

-Even with guys like youkilis out boston is getting production from guys like jeff baily. I don't want to lose youkilis but i have a feeling with the age he is now, how the redsox treated him (taking a very long time deciding if he can come up to the majors) and the way he is hitting , he will want a really good contract and won't flinch twice to accept it from anyone. I think the redsox will try to offer him a 8-9 million per year deal but if he gets anything north of 10 he will walk and the redsox might just let another prospect take over like baily(who reminds me of youk)

-Papelbon is soon another candidate for a raise. Redsox will try to keep things down, but papelbon might want something near the best closers like rivera get. I think in the end boston will sign him to multiple year deal around the 7 - 8 million per year mark. Really can't afford to lose him and plus we have no future closer anywhere in sight in the minors

-I think crisp is used to his role but he is no doubt an expensive bench guy and we could use him as bait for someone to take lugo. Maybe offer lugo, crisp and a prospect for an effective but older vet

- Lastly the tek situation is not going to be easy for the sox. He means so much to the redsox pitching system even though he is seriously declining in his hitting. Will he take a good paycut to stay a redsox?? well i hope so . Redsox will prob offer him a 3 year deal at 6 million per year. (otherwise we have to get another catcher and give cash the fulltime job)

Guys who are safe next year

-Ortiz
-Pedrioa(huge raise coming for him, he is looking like already he is worth 13-15 million per year)
-ellsbury(still a year or two away from a big contract. Playing better as of late, could demand 7 to 9 million per year
- drew
- lowell
- bay
- kotsay(could easily supplement the loss of youkilies. He could be signed for a 2 year type deal)
- lester
- dice k
- beckett
- masterson(should be a starter next year)
- declaremen(inconsistant, not clutch)

we need back
- papelbon

depending on contract situation
- youkilis
-tek

guys that won't comeback
- okajima(thank you)
- mike timlin
- wakefield(i think its time to part ways. He mite voluntarily retire)

What we desperately will need next year
- bullpen pitchers. (two solid righties and a left hander specialist)
- catching help

[Redz]

I hear all sorts of injury updates about Beckett, Lowell and Drew, but I haven't heard a whole lot about Lugo.  I just don't see the Sox rushing him back.  Cora and Lowrie have done the job and deserve the spot.  Money aside, the SOx will field their best team if they get in the post season and Lugo won't be involved.

Good run down Triboy.  TP.

I still don't see any problem with keeping Wakefield around.

They'll sign Tek again, unless he wants silly money, but I think he realizes he's more valuable here than elsewhere at this point.

The guys they have in the starting lineup now are all guys they like and I think they'll do everything they can to keep them together.  Bringing up so many youngsters will allow them to bridge the gap financially.

[ma11l]

I hear all sorts of injury updates about Beckett, Lowell and Drew, but I haven't heard a whole lot about Lugo.  I just don't see the Sox rushing him back.  Cora and Lowrie have done the job and deserve the spot.  Money aside, the SOx will field their best team if they get in the post season and Lugo won't be involved.

Good run down Triboy.  TP.

I still don't see any problem with keeping Wakefield around.

They'll sign Tek again, unless he wants silly money, but I think he realizes he's more valuable here than elsewhere at this point.

The guys they have in the starting lineup now are all guys they like and I think they'll do everything they can to keep them together.  Bringing up so many youngsters will allow them to bridge the gap financially.

Lugo was ahead of schedule until about a week ago when he had a setback.  I agree though, he better not see anything postseason action except for maybe some pinch running.

[ChampKind]

Bailey is older than Youkilis.  No way the Sox let Youk walk and go with Bailey, especially with Youk hitting his prime, having already been an established player, and being such a fan favorite.

[ChampKind]

For $4m/year we'll keep Wakefield too.  Even if he has a bad year that's a great deal.

[JBcat]

-Jed lowrie is slowly day by day taking the job away from Julio Lugo. He is not only better than lugo this year, but better than him even by last years comparison. (maybe the orioles or mets will take him haha)

-Even with guys like youkilis out boston is getting production from guys like jeff baily. I don't want to lose youkilis but i have a feeling with the age he is now, how the redsox treated him (taking a very long time deciding if he can come up to the majors) and the way he is hitting , he will want a really good contract and won't flinch twice to accept it from anyone. I think the redsox will try to offer him a 8-9 million per year deal but if he gets anything north of 10 he will walk and the redsox might just let another prospect take over like baily(who reminds me of youk)

-Papelbon is soon another candidate for a raise. Redsox will try to keep things down, but papelbon might want something near the best closers like rivera get. I think in the end boston will sign him to multiple year deal around the 7 - 8 million per year mark. Really can't afford to lose him and plus we have no future closer anywhere in sight in the minors

-I think crisp is used to his role but he is no doubt an expensive bench guy and we could use him as bait for someone to take lugo. Maybe offer lugo, crisp and a prospect for an effective but older vet

- Lastly the tek situation is not going to be easy for the sox. He means so much to the redsox pitching system even though he is seriously declining in his hitting. Will he take a good paycut to stay a redsox?? well i hope so . Redsox will prob offer him a 3 year deal at 6 million per year. (otherwise we have to get another catcher and give cash the fulltime job)

Guys who are safe next year

-Ortiz
-Pedrioa(huge raise coming for him, he is looking like already he is worth 13-15 million per year)
-ellsbury(still a year or two away from a big contract. Playing better as of late, could demand 7 to 9 million per year
- drew
- lowell
- bay
- kotsay(could easily supplement the loss of youkilies. He could be signed for a 2 year type deal)
- lester
- dice k
- beckett
- masterson(should be a starter next year)
- declaremen(inconsistant, not clutch)

we need back
- papelbon

depending on contract situation
- youkilis
-tek

guys that won't comeback
- okajima(thank you)
- mike timlin
- wakefield(i think its time to part ways. He mite voluntarily retire)

What we desperately will need next year
- bullpen pitchers. (two solid righties and a left hander specialist)
- catching help

good post but I'd like to point out a few things.

Jeff Bailey is not really a prospect.  He is more in the lines of a late bloomer like Brian Daubauch.  In fact he is actually older than Youk who has been in the majors for a while now.  He is also not as patient at the plate as Youk and not nearly the defensive player.  To say he could take over for Youk given how late in his career he entered the majors is a risky proposition to make.  A better assessment would be to say Lars Anderson a fast riser in the minors will take over at first some day.

To say there is no future closer in site at any level in the minors is wrong especially given the depth of talented pitchers Epstein has drafted over the past few years.  One guy to keep an eye is Daniel Bard a converted starter to closer.   He throws gas reaching 100 MPH at times and starting to come into his own at Portland striking out 64 in 49 innings.  

The comment that Kotsay could easily supplement the loss of Youk is just a false statement.  Nowhere in Kotsay's 11 year career has he come close to the production Youk has had this year not to mention how invaluable Youk is playing first or third flawlessly when needed.  

With some decent size contracts coming off the books this year Schilling, Ramirez (still paying his contract now on the Dodgers) possibly, Wakefield, Timlin, Tek, there is no reason to think the Sox won't be able to dish out good contracts for Paps and Youk.  The only way I don't see Youk coming back is if we go all out for Texeria.  

Catching is a concern however I don't see Cash as a possible full time catcher if Tek doesn't return (still hope Tek returns in some role).  The Sox just brought up a catcher they just traded for and have 2 other catching prospects at the higher minor league level that have done reasonably well this past year.  From what I've heard the Sox have put feelers out there to see if they can trade Crisp and someone else if needed for a top of the line catching prospect this offseason.  

Don't discount Bowden or even Bucholtz for that matter as he still has the talent to be mentioned as possible starters with Masterson next year.  Masterson was starting to get exposed a little to lefty hitters when he started earlier this year for the Sox so it's not clear cut he will be a starter next year at the major league level.  Pawtuckett knuckleballer Charlie Zink who has had an excellent year could be in the mix of things as well and take over Wakefield's role.  

[Big_Matt34]

-Even with guys like youkilis out boston is getting production from guys like jeff baily. I don't want to lose youkilis but i have a feeling with the age he is now, how the redsox treated him (taking a very long time deciding if he can come up to the majors) and the way he is hitting , he will want a really good contract and won't flinch twice to accept it from anyone. I think the redsox will try to offer him a 8-9 million per year deal but if he gets anything north of 10 he will walk and the redsox might just let another prospect take over like baily(who reminds me of youk)

-Papelbon is soon another candidate for a raise. Redsox will try to keep things down, but papelbon might want something near the best closers like rivera get. I think in the end boston will sign him to multiple year deal around the 7 - 8 million per year mark. Really can't afford to lose him and plus we have no future closer anywhere in sight in the minors

I believe Youkilis is arbitration eligible and under our control for the next 2 years i believe. He will get quite the raise but unless we trade him he will be on the team next year, we may try to extend him after the season though. Saying Bailey and Kotsay can replace him is just flat out wrong and an insult to Youk, Bailey over a full major league season would be a .260 hitter with 15 homers or so with average defense at best.

We also have Papelbons rights through 2010 so dont worry about losing him, teams CANT offer him money because he is under our control, same as Youk.

Your WAY ahead of yourself with Pedroia and Ellsbury, Pedroia is under our control and arbitration eligible for like 3 more years and Ellsbury is for the next 4 or 5, we are a long, long way from having to worry about their next contracts, again unless its an extension.

Varitek wont have to take a big paycut to stay here because NO other team will offer him much, i see him comnig back for a 2 year deal for about 14 million.

Saying Delcarmen is inconsistent may be right but not clutch is false, post all star break is the most important time of the year and pitchers who step up then would be clutch IMO, his post all star ERA this year is 3.31 with a .220 BAA, last year his post all star break ERA was 2.16 with a .193 BAA, pretty clutch id say.

Masterson could be a #3/4 starter or a stud reliever, id prefer stud reliever because those are so harder to find. Id like a rotation next year of Beckett/Lester/Dice-K/Buchholz/Wakefield (He is one of the best bargains in baseball) with Bowden in the mix, the bullpen id like to see is Delcarmen/Aardsma/Masterson/Okajima/Lopez/Chris Smith/Papelbon with Daniel Bard in the mix along with any FA aquisitions.

My personal lineup for next year would be

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz
Youkilis
Drew
Bay
Lowell
Lowrie
Varitek (Back on a cheap 2 year deal)

Bench:
Lugo (If we can't trade him, hopefully we can)
Crisp
Argenis Diaz (Could win gold glove eventually at SS)
David Ross
Lars Anderson as a late season callup

That is a VERY good lineup with a good mix of speed/defense off the bench.I also wouldnt be opposed to putting Lowell on the trade market and if somebody gives you something of good value back trade him, put Lowrie at 3rd and put Argenis Diaz at SS, you will see his defense if he gets called up this month which is very possible, he is like Alex Gonzalez. There would be be a lack of pop on the left side of the infield but the rest of the lineup will make up for it.

[Triboy16]

My point about youk is that i believe he will want the money he thinks he deserves and then some like any other greedy player. Imo he is easliy worth 8 to 9 million per year but a desperate team like kansas city or other nl teams could pay him easily 10-12 million per year and pry him away

I know jeff baily is not the long term solution but honestly as of late he has done a tremendous job with his bat and hasn't been a liability on defense.


In any case hope that the redsox sign youk to a long term deal(i predict 5 year 45-50 million)

if not we could try out guys like baily, hope lars anderson gets ready fast also then

[nickagneta]

My point about youk is that i believe he will want the money he thinks he deserves and then some like any other greedy player. Imo he is easliy worth 8 to 9 million per year but a desperate team like kansas city or other nl teams could pay him easily 10-12 million per year and pry him away

I know jeff baily is not the long term solution but honestly as of late he has done a tremendous job with his bat and hasn't been a liability on defense.


In any case hope that the redsox sign youk to a long term deal(i predict 5 year 45-50 million)

if not we could try out guys like baily, hope lars anderson gets ready fast also then

I think you are missing Big Matt's point, Youk is going nowhere next year because the Sox still own his rights. He is arbitration eligible and in that process he could get a hefty raise but there is no way the Red Sox do anything with Youk because he is productive and still relatively cheap for a power hitting first baseman with Gold Glove defensive capabilities. As a matter of fact last year was Youk's first arbitration year meaning the Sox still own his rights for next year and the year after. No other team can offer him anything to pry him away from the Sox.

Papelbon is arbitration eligible for the next 3 years. The Sox own his exclusive rights as well for those three years.

As I have said in response to your criticisms on Okajima and Delcarmen in other threads, you are way off on these guys and the Red Sox organization think so highly of them that they are going nowhere. Both could be 30 save closers for 75% of the teams in MLB right now. Their percentage of appearances in which they have let up an earned run are well over 70%. Okajima's ERA is well below the league average and Delcarmen would have been also but for 4 bad appearances earlier this year where he let up 10 earned runs in those 4 games. Other than those games his ERA would be around 2.20. They both also have two of the best WHIP on the team and have OBA of around .222. Both are cheap and excellent relievers. They are going nowhere. Especially Delcarmen who's rights the Sox own for the next 4 years.

I might watch the Bay situation very closely. The Sox could very well move him for an upgrade. He is cheap and productive. Most likely he will stay but if Matt Holiday demands out of Colorado and the Sox have interest, Bay is the guy heading to Colorado with a prospect or two for Holiday.

I think you're right on the mark with Tek. They'll resign him for 2 years and try to pry a good minor league prospect out of a team like Texas who has like 4 good catching prospects and/or MLB ready players in their system but need pitching, which the Sox can spare.

If Coco keeps up the hot bat, he will most likely be moved. The Sox would have gotten nothing for him early this year. With a .270+ average, his great defense, and his speed, he will make for an attractive addition to some mid level club in need of a CF.

[Triboy16]

The guy is almost 29-30 and he is still on arbitration?? Guys like hanley ramirez at age 22 or whatever signed a long term deal so why is youk stranded pretty much at the age of 28?? same goes for papelbon??

I like your matt holiday scenerio. But if bay does decent rest of the way(he has given us at least manny like productions(manny the past years)) then i'd like to keep him. He strikes out alot but also gets his hits and walks here and there

[nickagneta]

The guy is almost 29-30 and he is still on arbitration?? Guys like hanley ramirez at age 22 or whatever signed a long term deal so why is youk stranded pretty much at the age of 28?? same goes for papelbon??

I like your matt holiday scenerio. But if bay does decent rest of the way(he has given us at least manny like productions(manny the past years)) then i'd like to keep him. He strikes out alot but also gets his hits and walks here and there

Age has nothing to do with arbitration, it is based on full years played. A team controls a rookie brought up through their system for 6 fulls season. Three seasons at rookie scale and three in which the player is arbitration eligible. This is Youk's fourth full seasonso he was eligible for arbitration for the first time this year. papelbon will be eligible the year after for his first arbitration year. Hanley Ramirez is, like Papelbon, in his third full year so next year he will be eligible for arbitration. Think seasons played not age.

[Chris]

I don't want to lose youkilis but i have a feeling with the age he is now, how the redsox treated him (taking a very long time deciding if he can come up to the majors) and the way he is hitting , he will want a really good contract and won't flinch twice to accept it from anyone. I think the redsox will try to offer him a 8-9 million per year deal but if he gets anything north of 10 he will walk and the redsox might just let another prospect take over like baily(who reminds me of youk)

Youk will get some bigger money in Arbitration, but he is not going anywhere.  The Sox might try to lock him up long term, but I don't see why they need to.  He is coming off a career year, and he can't be a free agent for another 2 years (I believe).  They are better off just going to arbitration, paying him, and then trying to lock him up after next year if he repeats his performance.  Otherwise, they have a stud first basemen shooting through the system, who can take over when Youk walks (at the age of 32 BTW).

-Papelbon is soon another candidate for a raise. Redsox will try to keep things down, but papelbon might want something near the best closers like rivera get. I think in the end boston will sign him to multiple year deal around the 7 - 8 million per year mark. Really can't afford to lose him and plus we have no future closer anywhere in sight in the minors

Again, I don't see them doing a deal like this.  Closers are too much of a risk, and they have control of him for another couple of years.  They likely go the arbitration route with him as well.

-I think crisp is used to his role but he is no doubt an expensive bench guy and we could use him as bait for someone to take lugo. Maybe offer lugo, crisp and a prospect for an effective but older vet

Much more likely that we hold onto Lugo (who would just cost us more money and prospects to trade than keep as a utility player), and trade Crisp along with a prospect or two to fill a hole. 

- Lastly the tek situation is not going to be easy for the sox. He means so much to the redsox pitching system even though he is seriously declining in his hitting. Will he take a good paycut to stay a redsox?? well i hope so . Redsox will prob offer him a 3 year deal at 6 million per year. (otherwise we have to get another catcher and give cash the fulltime job)

I cannot see them offering him 3 years.  My guess is they offer him the same per year as he is making right now, but for only 1-2 years. 

Guys who are safe next year

-Ortiz
-Pedrioa(huge raise coming for him, he is looking like already he is worth 13-15 million per year)
-ellsbury(still a year or two away from a big contract. Playing better as of late, could demand 7 to 9 million per year
- drew
- lowell
- bay
- kotsay(could easily supplement the loss of youkilies. He could be signed for a 2 year type deal)
- lester
- dice k
- beckett
- masterson(should be a starter next year)
- declaremen(inconsistant, not clutch)

Kotsay is a FA, and he is likely gone next year unless he wants to be a 4th outfielder (unlikely).  And like I said before, Youk is on this list too.  The Sox have him under their control for another couple years.  The only way he is gone is if someone offers them a trade they can't turn down.  Remember, they didn't trade him for Texiera, because they valued the beneficial contract situation he is in.

Ditto for Papelbon.

Also, there is no way Pedroia is worth 13-15 per year.  He is a second year player.  He isn't up for arbitration for at least another season I believe.  The only way the Sox sign him to a long term deal at this point is if he takes a major discount (like $6-7 per year tops)

guys that won't comeback
- okajima(thank you)
- mike timlin
- wakefield(i think its time to part ways. He mite voluntarily retire)

I think there is a very good chance Okajima and Wakefield are back next year.  I think they still really like Okajima (he has been much better lately), and Wakefield is back as long as he wants to pitch. 

What we desperately will need next year
- bullpen pitchers. (two solid righties and a left hander specialist)
- catching help

This seems about right to me.  I think they will go hard after a young catcher to play behind Tek for a year or two before taking over full time, as well as a couple relievers.  I think they also will look closely at bringing in another starter.  I think there is a very good chance that Masterson stays in the bullpen, and they will want someone else they can count on in the rotation, whether it is a top of the rotation guy, or a 3-4 guy.  This will especially be the case if Wakefield retires.

[Nerf DPOY]

The guy is almost 29-30 and he is still on arbitration?? Guys like hanley ramirez at age 22 or whatever signed a long term deal so why is youk stranded pretty much at the age of 28?? same goes for papelbon??

I like your matt holiday scenerio. But if bay does decent rest of the way(he has given us at least manny like productions(manny the past years)) then i'd like to keep him. He strikes out alot but also gets his hits and walks here and there

Age has nothing to do with arbitration, it is based on full years played. A team controls a rookie brought up through their system for 6 fulls season. Three seasons at rookie scale and three in which the player is arbitration eligible. This is Youk's fourth full seasonso he was eligible for arbitration for the first time this year. papelbon will be eligible the year after for his first arbitration year. Hanley Ramirez is, like Papelbon, in his third full year so next year he will be eligible for arbitration. Think seasons played not age.

Hanley signed a six year 70 mil extension to stay with the Marlins that'll lock him up through 2014.

Holliday is a Boras client who'll be a UFA after '09(I think). My guess is he'll wait it out to test the market next offseason, so if the Rockies do decide to deal him they'll only be offering a rental.

TriBoy, I find it baffling that you want to see Masterson in the rotation and cut ties with Okajima; then follow that up with saying the 'Sox will desperately need help in the pen next season. The 'Sox have an '09 option on Oki south of 2 mil. Now, consider that Gagne signed for 10 million last offseason.

I would also echo Big Matt's sentiments on Masterson being of much greater value coming out of the pen than in the rotation. Too add to that, he throws harder in 1-2 inning stints, doesn't get exposed for only having 2 pitches, and can be controlled to being in more favorable matchups than he would as a starter.

[ReadyFor17]

In general a good starter is more valuable than a good reliever because. Since the game isn't played in a vacuum, however, that can't be the end of the discussion.

Masterson's stuff is clearly better when he knows can amp it up for 1-2 innings. His slider has more bite and like Nerf said, he just throws harder in the pen.

Then you have the depth in the rotation vs. the depth in the pen to consider. The Sox could easily make a play for one of the front-line FA starters this offseason. Between Masterson, Bowden and Buchholz, Masterson's stuff is by a decent margin the most suitable for the bullpen.

If there is more of a need for a starter than a reliever then Masterson should start; I don't think that will be the case. It may not be the best use of a resource but a team as deep as the Red Sox sometimes has to make decisions like this. When you've got this many guys that could be starting in the major leagues right now, some of them get stuck in the minors or in the bullpen. Masterson is too good to waste any bullets in the minors so he'll be just fine as a set up man for now. That doesn't meant he'll be stuck there forever; I'm sure he'll get his chance in the rotation for a full season at some point in his Sox career.

[gpap]

I would like to see the Sox land another starting pitcher and cut ties with Wakefield. For whatever reason, so many Sox fans seem to be so concerned with how much money the Sox spend and how cheap Wake's contract is. Why the concern over how much money the Sox spend?

I heard on mlbtraderumors.com that Sox may be interested in AJ Burnett if he opts out of his contract in Toronto.  If so, AJ would be a great pick up.  A rotation of Burnette, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester and Buchholz would be filthy.

If the Sox can't land another big-name pitcher or in the interim have doubts, then I would definitely resign Paul Byrd. Byrd has been a steal since coming over in the trade from Cleveland. Another idea could be to shop Buchholz, resign Colon. For this month and the playoffs alone, I think a rotation of Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Byrd and Colon could and will be equally amazing!

Also, I would like to see the Sox unload Drew.  Drew just isn't delivering. He was heating up in June but then in July he slowed down and then in August he went back to being his old injured self.

Some may say I am crazy, but I would love to see them make a run at Bobby Abreu. Abreu will be a free agent and a good chance the Yanks won't resign him. He's a very good OBP guy and seems to always play. The only thing that worries me about him is his defense.

Other than that,the rest of the team is perfect as is. I would pick up Oki's option, keep Masterson in the pen and groom him to be our next set-up man.

Do not let Youk walk. He's the most underrated player in the bigs and will always be reliable in Boston.  Coco has turned out to be a great 4th outfielder and I would NOT trade him, provided he doesn't mind being a 4th outfielder. Bay has been great. I would also pursue a back up catcher with some pop (Saltalamachia.)

The Sox may try to trade Lugo and move Lowrie to the starting SS. That's understandable, but who would be willing to trade for Lugo?

Also, I hope the Sox resign Mark Kotsay. He is and would be a great utility player.