ok sorry for mess up. here is my thought:
Danny is compiling all of this "young upside talent" to use his same formula that he used to get the Big 3. Assuming the Big 3 come off the books in a couple of years and can be great trade value, we can be in a great position.
If Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair, 3 picks and Dwest can turn into Ray Allen and KG then Danny can do some serious work with:
Ray Ray, KG, Giddens, Darius, Patrick O'bryant, Powe, Pruitt, and Bill Walker. Assuming that a combination of those last 6 players pans out plus future draft picks can be equal in talent with Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair and Dwest then we can be solid again.
Pierce and KG's Salaries will be 40M off the books when they are done. That should be enough to lure a couple of stars.
As some have already alluded to, here's my problem with this: We learned this past year that the core of this group represented the assets to win a championship. We *have* a championship team here...it would seem to me that the goal would be to maximize the current window. As I've stressed previously, the team spent all those years with the original young talent you referred to in 'building for the future' mode. Effective July 31, 2007, the 'future' became the 'present.' And until our three stars don't have it in them to take a team to a championship, that will remain the case. Which makes me completely support the idea of 'win now win now win now' at this point...
-sw
Well said, Steve. Another TP.
This is my entire problem with the off-season we've had. Our focus should be on winning another title, not on any vestige of a rebuilding plan. 'Win now win now win now' Yet we're woefully short at the 5, we have very little outside shooting and our defense is questionable off the bench.
1. Perkins/Davis/O'Bryant/KG will all see minutes at the 5. 3 of them are known commodities doing so and each played well in their situations. The UNKOWN is O'bryant, who is extremely long and athletic and who hasn't gotten any NBA playing time to show one way or the other how effective he can be. So we aren't "short" we have our biggest question marks there in terms of having a 2nd legit sized center who can step into PJ's role instead of having to use KG against taller centers when Perk is out--there is a difference between THINKING there is a problem and KNOWING there is one, this is the former and will be a non-issue is O'Bryant does his job.
2. Perimeter shooting: KG/PP/RA/EH....at least 2 of these guys is going to be on the court at all times, often 3...how many shooters does a team need? The Celtics often had too many shooters and not enough attackers on the court last year, which would place a heavy burden on their defense to limit virtually all opponent scoring just to hold on. The offense went through huge lulls last year when things got tough because they lacked slashers. You see a deficit, I see an improvement in the probability that the team will attack more, get more FT's, and have a higher percentage offense.
3. Questionable defense off the bench? O'Bryant, Davis, Powe, Walker, Giddens, and Tony Allen are or were all known for their defensive instincts at whatever level they played. Again, this is THINKING vs. KNOWING what you are going to get.
O'Bryant has been questioned for giving up post position, but his help and on-ball shot-blocking is Camby-esque while his mobility should allow him to be masterful in the team scheme if he applies himself. Glen Davis has short arms, but he excels at denying larger players post position and did an outstanding job at the 5 despite his handicap. Leon Powe gets lost in the team scheme occasionally (though was 2nd on team in picking up charges), but is recognized as an strong man defender at the 4. Walker is tenacious on-ball, being known to play multiple positions defensively on the perimeter-the same goes for Giddens, who was a lock-down defender even while leading his team offensively. Tony Allen is one of the better perimeter defenders in the the league, getting right up under his man and typically forcing a challenged jumper. His team defense leads to a good number of steals and charges as well.
...are there a lot of question marks based on the experience this group has? Yes, certainly...but the raw fundamentals are each there for excellent defense, so I have trouble looking at that group and stating that its defensive potential is weak.
As far as all this "win now win now win now" stuff, who says the team isn't doing that? None of us have any idea what stock the organization places in any of these guys, what contingencies they've gamed out in the event that any or all don't pay off, and what their short and long-term objectives are for building this roster to compete.
What we have is a KNOWN vs UNKOWN debate raging on this board. Those fearful of the unknown are disparaging the current roster because it is laden with unproven players. Those who are more open to risk are dwelling on the talent and potential of these unknown players.
Either side may be right in the end, but that's the point i've been trying to make--EITHER SIDE MAY BE RIGHT...there's a lot of "the team isn't" and "this player can't" talk going on around here, and that's just not correct.
We can argue about probabilities based on theories about team building strategy, we can dissect the players and their skill sets, histories, and perceived likelihood of success...but what we CAN NOT DO is KNOW what's going to happen. There are far too many variables in play to be as cock-sure as some are becoming about this topic.
I THINK the team has a high probability of repeating because I THINK that one or more of the low/highs will pay off, because I KNOW Danny's success rates with young players and I KNOW how much due diligence he and the organization put into scouting and analytics. I also THINK that the team will be able to acquire the veterans needed IF the low/highs don't pan out, because I THINK there will be players available in free agency or trade before the deadline--that gives me confidence...buy i KNOW very little about how things will play out exactly, and so do all of you...
