Danny using same formula?

[blake]

 h

[BigThreePeat]

Theres no post to respond to, but ... do you mean... by bringing in young prospects with hopes of cashing them in for viable talent?  Perhaps

[blake]

ok sorry for mess up.  here is my thought:

Danny is compiling all of this "young upside talent" to use his same formula that he used to get the Big 3.  Assuming the Big 3 come off the books in a couple of years and can be great trade value, we can be in a great position.

If Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair, 3 picks and Dwest can turn into Ray Allen and KG then Danny can do some serious work with:

Ray Ray, KG, Giddens, Darius, Patrick O'bryant, Powe, Pruitt, and Bill Walker.  Assuming that a combination of those last 6 players pans out plus future draft picks can be equal in talent with Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair and Dwest then we can be solid again.

Pierce and KG's Salaries will be 40M off the books when they are done.  That should be enough to lure a couple of stars.

[Roy Hobbs]

Unfortunately, though, I don't see anybody in that group who is even in the same ballpark as Big Al (other than of course KG and Ray, who are both old and not viable options for a rebuilding franchise).

[Chris]

I think that Danny is using a similar formula as last year.  He has his core of players that he knows he can rely on, and then instead of surrounding them with mediocre veterans, he is surrounding them with a lot of unproven guys with high ceilings, hoping that some of them can step up, and make them even better than they would be with the mediocre veterans, with the knowledge that he could try to replace those who didn't pan out at midseason.

Last year the guys they could count on were Pierce, Allen, Garnett and Posey.  Then the rest of the guys were all question marks. 

Perk was the closest to a sure thing, because he had some decent experience, but was never able to really put it together and stay on the floor long enough to be counted on.  Rondo was a MAJOR question-mark playing arguably the most important position on the team (starting PG).  They had a backup PG in House whose ability to play the point was heavily questioned.  They had a backup Center who was a constant injury risk.  And their backup PF's were a mediocre veteran, a second year guy who looked completely lost in his rookie year defensively, and an undersized/overweight rookie.  And they had another backup wing who was coming off a major injury, and had questionable decision-making skills.

Out of that, they had three guys come up as jackpots (Rondo, Perkins, Powe), with Davis, House, Allen and Scal breaking even, and Pollard busting...but they replaced him at midseason.


This year isn't much different.  They know they can count on productive minutes from Pierce, Allen, Garnett, Rondo, Perkins, Powe and House.  So they actually have more "sure things" than last year, and they are just hoping from all of the young guys/injured guys they have, that a good percentage of them break even, and a couple hit the jackpot.  If not, they will try to roll again at midseason.

The pieces might be slightly different, but the formula is very similar to last year.

[blake]

I agree that no one is in the same atmosphere with Big Al.  Right now.  I think that is why Danny has gone with guys that have not even been close to their ceiling.  There have been no picks of Kevin Love type players.  Everybody recently has the potential to be a star.  

[orrzor]

I think Rondo will be in the same ballpark as Big Al if he continues to work in the offseasons on improving his game. Don't forget about Rondo's defense, which Big Al is unable to show due to being the focal point of the offense.

[Eeyore III]

Elrod Enchilada addressed these points in an excellent article on Real GM a few weeks ago.  I'm not sure if I buy it, though.

It took DA a few years to gather the assets to get KG.  It'll probably take another two years to get the assets to get another superstar, which is also why he's keeping cap room open for two years down the line.

I admire DA's ability to think long term, which also leads me to give kudos to Wyc, because an impatient owner doesn't let a GM think long term.

We're still too thin at C though.  I can't believe DA would risk letting this season go to waste for lack of another big.

[bbc3341]

I think he's trying to win this year and hopefully develop some talent as well - not necessarily to move it, but I think there is an inevitable down trend when a team hits the championship level when the players who make up that team leave, retire, etc. It seems to me that the only real way to avoid that is through free agency or trades - so there is the fact that when KG, Allen, or Pierce retire, there will be $ to spend, but it is also true that there are teams who want to get young talent and build - seems like Ainge's strategy is to be good through a mixture of trades, FA, and also developing young guys (Rondo, Perkins, etc.)

Anyway, it is fantastic to be heading into a season wondering if the C's can get back to the finals and not whether they'll win over 35 games...

[Steve Weinman]

ok sorry for mess up.  here is my thought:

Danny is compiling all of this "young upside talent" to use his same formula that he used to get the Big 3.  Assuming the Big 3 come off the books in a couple of years and can be great trade value, we can be in a great position.

If Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair, 3 picks and Dwest can turn into Ray Allen and KG then Danny can do some serious work with:

Ray Ray, KG, Giddens, Darius, Patrick O'bryant, Powe, Pruitt, and Bill Walker.  Assuming that a combination of those last 6 players pans out plus future draft picks can be equal in talent with Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair and Dwest then we can be solid again.

Pierce and KG's Salaries will be 40M off the books when they are done.  That should be enough to lure a couple of stars.

As some have already alluded to, here's my problem with this: We learned this past year that the core of this group represented the assets to win a championship.  We *have* a championship team here...it would seem to me that the goal would be to maximize the current window.  As I've stressed previously, the team spent all those years with the original young talent you referred to in 'building for the future' mode.  Effective July 31, 2007, the 'future' became the 'present.'  And until our three stars don't have it in them to take a team to a championship, that will remain the case.  Which makes me completely support the idea of 'win now win now win now' at this point...

-sw

[gar]

There are some definite themes that could make for a formula of sorts:

1. One theme has to do with drafting people who for whatever reason are undervalued or have been passed over. Pierce, Powe, Walker, BBD all dropped a bit in the draft. Gerald Green and Gomes did help get us get KG.

2. The other theme has to do with players that he has followed for a while. It was mentioned that he has been following Eddie House for a while. Not sure how we compare with other teams, but we have a lot of fairly prominent McDonalds All-american types. Rondo, Giddens, Perk, Dmiles, KG, Pierce, Davis, Powe. People who he has had a chance to see over the years.  Am sure he followed O'Bryant a bit as well.

3. As frequent as the phase Bball IQ is used. There does seem to be the tendency to be seduced by shear athleticism. This may have been tempered a bit since the G$ days. Walker and Giddens are reportedly quick learners. Rondo is clearly up there. All three are amazing athletes.

4. He seems comfortable relying on the ability of his trainers and coaching staff to take on tough projects. Powe, Walker, Allen, D Miles, all have knee issues. Davis and Perk had (have) weight issues.

5. He also seems to like people who have had particular struggles or character building moments in their lives - some more than others.

Maybe not a formula; but some recurring themes.

[Roy Hobbs]

ok sorry for mess up.  here is my thought:

Danny is compiling all of this "young upside talent" to use his same formula that he used to get

If Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair, 3 picks and Dwest can turn into Ray Allen and KG then Danny can do some serious work with:

Ray Ray, KG, Giddens, Darius, Patrick O'bryant, Powe, Pruitt, and Bill Walker.  Assuming that a combination of those last 6 players pans out plus future draft picks can be equal in talent with Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair and Dwest then we can be solid again.

Pierce and KG's Salaries will be 40M off the books when they are done.  That should be enough to lure a couple of stars.

As some have already alluded to, here's my problem with this: We learned this past year that the core of this group represented the assets to win a championship.  We *have* a championship team here...it would seem to me that the goal would be to maximize the current window.  As I've stressed previously, the team spent all those years with the original young talent you referred to in 'building for the future' mode.  Effective July 31, 2007, the 'future' became the 'present.'  And until our three stars don't have it in them to take a team to a championship, that will remain the case.  Which makes me completely support the idea of 'win now win now win now' at this point...

-sw

Yeah, agreed, Steve.  Also, aren't people forgetting the other prerequisite for the last rebuilding era?  Namely, several years of crappy teams, and trading our lottery picks for "chips"?  It's as if we've entered a rebuilding mode, the season after winning the championship.  I almost expect Danny to trade KG, Paul, and Ray for a bunch of rookies, ala the Florida Marlins. 

(Yes, that's a bit of hyperbole, but 53% of our team is made up of unknowns / question marks / poor players.  I think we can still win, but Danny is making it harder than he needs to.  It's hard to understand.)

[Jon]

Unfortunately, though, I don't see anybody in that group who is even in the same ballpark as Big Al (other than of course KG and Ray, who are both old and not viable options for a rebuilding franchise).

Plus, even if some of these players were in the league of Big Al (though I agree with Roy that they're not), I doubt enough of them will get the minutes to prove it.  One big advantage Danny had last offseason is that Minny and Seattle got to see all the youngsters play big minutes on that bad 2006-2007 team.  However, that isn't going to happen here.  Of those 6 players you mentioned, only 3-4 of them will probably get consistent minutes and none of them will be putting up the numbers to intrigue teams enough to trade high value for them. 

[CoachBo]

ok sorry for mess up.  here is my thought:

Danny is compiling all of this "young upside talent" to use his same formula that he used to get the Big 3.  Assuming the Big 3 come off the books in a couple of years and can be great trade value, we can be in a great position.

If Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair, 3 picks and Dwest can turn into Ray Allen and KG then Danny can do some serious work with:

Ray Ray, KG, Giddens, Darius, Patrick O'bryant, Powe, Pruitt, and Bill Walker.  Assuming that a combination of those last 6 players pans out plus future draft picks can be equal in talent with Big Al, G$, Gomes, Telfair and Dwest then we can be solid again.

Pierce and KG's Salaries will be 40M off the books when they are done.  That should be enough to lure a couple of stars.

As some have already alluded to, here's my problem with this: We learned this past year that the core of this group represented the assets to win a championship.  We *have* a championship team here...it would seem to me that the goal would be to maximize the current window.  As I've stressed previously, the team spent all those years with the original young talent you referred to in 'building for the future' mode.  Effective July 31, 2007, the 'future' became the 'present.'  And until our three stars don't have it in them to take a team to a championship, that will remain the case.  Which makes me completely support the idea of 'win now win now win now' at this point...

-sw

Well said, Steve. Another TP.

This is my entire problem with the off-season we've had. Our focus should be on winning another title, not on any vestige of a rebuilding plan. 'Win now win now win now' Yet we're woefully short at the 5, we have very little outside shooting and our defense is questionable off the bench.

[nickagneta]

I don't know if Danny is using the same formula or not but it sure does appear to me that he has lapsed back to his days of adding very questionable players to his team.

How many times have we seen players like Tom Gugliotta, Jiri Welsch, Gary Payton, Raef LaFrentz, Ricky Davis, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Scot Pollard and others have been brought in in the off season after recovering from bad injuries(Googs, Ratliff, Pollard, now Miles and although just a rookie Walker), from disappointing years elsewhere where there might have been locker room probs(Payton, Davis, Telfair, Blount, and now Miles and although just a draftee Giddens), or because Danny just messed up(LaFrentz, Vin Baker, etc.)

Some might say that last years additions of House, Posey, BBD and Pruitt were of the same type but at least Posey and House had shown a consistent effort with consistent results.

Can the same still be said?