Can Sixers Dethrone the Celtics? Check it Out

[reardenmetal]

Found this on FanNation.....

The shape of the Sixers team is starting to become more clear. Each piece of the puzzle has been taken care of besides Andre Iguodala, which should be coming soon. Ed Stefanki's first off-season as Sixers GM has been ridiculously good. He landed the big fish/low-post scorer we've been needing in Brand, he got a shooter for cheap in Kareem Rush, filled a roster spot with a tough-nosed third point guard in Royal Ivey and drafted an absolute stud in my opinion, Mo Speights. Not to mention he locked up Lou Williams with a very reasonable contract. With the majority of the off-season moves completed, I thought it would be interesting to look towards next season. The Atlantic and the Eastern Conference are no longer the laughing stalk of the league. Especially with the Atlantic's own Boston Celtics owning the Larry O'brien trophy at the moment. So, with Elton Brand, a year under the core's belt and a couple new role players, can the Sixers compete with the NBA champs? It's been said that to be the best, you have to beat the best, so let's compare the teams.

Point Guard: Andre Miller vs. Rajon Rondo
Rajon looked like a flat out star at times during the finals, especially in the clincher. He's much quicker and flashier than Miller, but I'll take the consistent, durable, savvy veteran over Rondo any day. Not to mention, unless Rajon hits the weight room big time this summer Miller can just abuse him in the post. The numbers speak for themselves. In games played against each other last season, here are the lines:

Miller-23 points, 6 rebounds, 8 assists on 45% and 3 turnovers a game
Rondo-6 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists on 38% and 2 turnover a game

1-0 Sixers in my book.

Shooting Guard: Andre Iguodala (most likely) vs. Ray Allen
This one's a little tougher to judge. First, Iguodala hasn't played much shooting guard. Second, he'll be the number two option this season, instead of the number one. It remains to be seen how that will affect him, but we all assume it'll be for the better. Ray Allen had a solid regular season with Boston until the last few weeks and the beginning of the playoffs, where people concluded that his career was over. Then, all of sudden the dude played out of his mind in the NBA finals and in my opinion deserved the MVP. So, Iguodala, the young, high-flying player with star potential or Jesus Shuttleworth, the veteran with Hall of Fame-type numbers, the prettiest jumper in the League and newly attained championship ring? Here are the numbers (keep in mind when they played last year, they didn't really guard each other):

Iguodala-22 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists on 49% and 3 turnovers a game
Allen-18 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists on 51% and 2 turnovers a game

Iguodala wins the numbers, but as of right now, I'd take Allen over Iguodala if I had to win a game. I realize he looked like garbage in the beginning of the playoffs, but the finals left a good taste in my mouth and Iggy didn't look all that great in the playoffs himself.

1-1

Small Forward: Thadeus Young (again most likely) vs. Paul Pierce
Finals MVP vs. second year Thad? No explanation needed. We'll also save some embarrassment by not showing the numbers. Like Andre and Allen, they didn't guard each other much either.

2-1 Celtics

Power Forward: Elton Brand vs. Kevin Garnett
This one's tough. Real tough. On the offensive end Brand is much better in my opinion. On the defensive end, KG is. KG's been known to be famously unclutch. He answered the bell a little bit in the finals, but he'll always still have that reputation. Since they did not face each other last season, let's look at their numbers against each other in 06-07 when Brand was a Clipper and KG was a T' Wolve.

Brand-22 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists on 59% and 2 blocks a game
KG-25 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists on 56% and 2 blocks a game

KG wins the numbers battle, but this was two years ago and both were on different teams with different offenses. If it means anything, the Clippers also went 0-3 in those games. As much as I tried to look for an advantage for Elton, I just couldn't find it. KG takes this one, hands down.

3-1 Celtics

Center: Samuel Dalembert vs. Kendrick Perkins
Perkins showed some promise in the playoffs, but so did Dalembert. Dalembert's offense is very underrated, especially his mid-range jumper. Last season it was money from 4 all the way to 18 feet. Perk's post game is probably better. Perkins defense is above average, but Sammy's is one of the tops in the league and I only expect it to get better with Brand playing beside him. They're two completely different players, yet similar. Dalembert became much more consistent this season and Perkins is still learning. Some might think it's a little closer than I do, but I'm giving the edge to Dalembert. Here are the numbers (Again they didn't guard each other all the time, since Sam guarded Garnett a lot.):

Dalembert-8 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks on 43% shooting and 2 turnovers a game
Perkins-7 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks on 55% shooting and 1 turnover a game

The numbers tell a little different story than my assessment, but Dalembert's offensive numbers were down due to him expending so much energy against Garnett on the defensive end. On the other hand, Perkins was often left wide open due to a double-team or guarded by Thadeus Young, who he outweighs by a solid 60 pounds.

3-2 Celtics

Sixers bench vs. Celtics bench: This match up would be a lot closer had James Posey not left for New Orleans. For the Celtics, P.J. Brown will probably retire, Sam Cassell is as old as dirt and did nothing, but hurt the Celtics during the playoffs, Glen Davis is solid, but is a little undersized to match up with any of the Sixers big men, Eddie House is a flat out stud and Leon Powe is a stud. As for the Sixers, Lou Williams is light years better than anyone on the Celtics bench, Reggie Evans gives the team energy, swagger and rebounding (a la Glen Davis), Jason Smith is a hustle machine and can knock down open jumpers better than most big men, Willie Green can score, but is our version of Sam Cassell, Kareem Rush is a streaky shooter than can play solid defense and if Mo Speights sees the floor I think he can be very effective on both ends of the court. Like I said, throw James Posey back in the mix and we have a close one, but without him advantage Sixers.

3-3

Coach: Mo Cheeks vs. Doc Rivers
Both coaches are very underrated. Doc, not so much anymore now that he out coached arguably the best of all-time in Phil Jackson to win a championship. Still, I haven't heard many give him much credit. Rivers did a fantastic job coaching in the finals with the exception of not playing Eddie House over Sam Cassell. Mo didn't do so bad himself with the Sixers this season. I thought he pushed all the right buttons for the most part, especially in all those comeback wins. Was this a result of good coaching or Stefanksi calling for the young guys? I'm not sure, but either way Cheeks did a fantastic job. I'm going to give Rivers the edge for the simple fact that he has a ring and Cheeks doesn't (as a coach).

4-3 Celtics.

Bottom line is the Celtics look slightly better on paper. None of us know how the new Sixers team will play out, especially in their first year together. In a couple years the Sixers will look like the better team, especially with some valuable playoff experience and team chemistry. Not to mention the Celtics are a lot older. One thing we can't factor in on paper is the C's drive in this upcoming season. After winning their first championship will they play with the same desire they did a year ago? I'm pretty sure they won't. A championship takes a lot out of a team and they'll probably be celebrating into the All-Star break. Back-to-back is the hardest thing to do, so Philly's got that working for them.

The C's won this battle, but I'm as stoked as anyone to see the season play out. It will be a blast going against the defending champs all season.

I also wanted to mention one more thing. Check out the Sixers official website. Does anyone else notice that the colors are red, white and blue? Put that together with Elton posing in the throwbacks, the old poll question on what logo the fans like best and the following header/motto on their website and do we have ourselves a slow evolution back to the old uni's? Ricky from Sixers4guidos might have some answers. Ricky, if your reading, didn't I read something on your website that Ed was addressing this issue on the radio? It'd be awesome if we went back to the old uniforms for good.

[Shaqzilla]

Okay but the Sixers haven't played a game yet.

It's like a Lakers fan saying they would be the champs if Andrew Bynum was healthy.

Or a Rockets fans claiming a title because Ron Artest is in town.

It's all just speculation.

But I think Philly will be a title contender in 2010 when they get an outside shooter!

[guava_wrench]

Position by position matchup analysis is silly. This isn't the Ryder cup.

[Shaqzilla]

Yeah the floor is so crowded with 10 guys on one side of the court and with all these screens and pick n rolls no one is going to guard the same player the entire game

[zerophase]

well things change if ai 2.0 gets a 3 point shot. right now, the 76's have no real 3 point shooters. their best shooter is probably korver who they gave up already.

[fmf2]

1. Rondo will be better than Andre Miller next year.
2. Zerophrase brings up a good point...The Sixers lack 3 point shooting. This will hurt them.
3. I am also not very impressed with Philly's bench other than L Williams.

[BballTim]

  Pierce vs Young isn't +1 for the Celts, it's a +5 And explaining why Dalembert put up worse numbers than Perk without showing any reason the same circumstances won't exist in the future is a +1 for the Celts, not the Sixers.

[ManUp]

They're lack of shooters is what's going to do them in.

Not one consistent 3point shooter in that lineup.

They'll win a lot of games, but that's not going to cut it in the play-offs and it's not going to cut it against us.

[nickagneta]

I love the fact that we are simply talking Celtics-Sixers again and that it actually means something.

I agree with most of what the person at FanNation had to say but he is definitely off in his assessment of the center and bench positions. I don't think either team has a real distinct advantage in those areas and would have scored it a push 1-1 in those areas thereby making it 6-3 Celtics.

And for next year I think that would be fairly accurate. Outside shooting is a problem for Philly and if a team, like the Celtics that plays great defense, can shut down or limit the inside game and drives to the basket, Philly is in trouble.

But by the end of the year and maybe after a deadline trade, the Sixers might just be one of those teams that everyone says they just do not want to face in the playoffs.

[jaketwice]

On Sixer's side:

Celtics not as hungry.

Brand and Dalembert contain the kinds of post player with whom the Celtics had some trouble last year.

The Sixers can run.

On Celtics side:

(Excel version)

########

[guava_wrench]

On Sixer's side:

Celtics not as hungry.

Big Baby is always hungry!

[fairweatherfan06]

Kareem Rush is a good three point shooter if I recall.

[PerkinsERA43]

In terms of the Rondo-Miller matchup:

I expect Rondo to make great leaps going into his third season. Andre Miller is early to mid thirties now, and Rondo is an up and coming 22 year old. I Expect him to pass Miller and enter the stratosphere of excellence occupied by the best PGs in the league. It is not fair to compare one or two games worth of performance and to determine that Miller is so superior. He happened to play some good games against the C;s. It happens. Rondo happened to play poorly, not a huge surprise since until the playoffs began, he was horribly inconsistent (and even during the playoffs, he still had some rough spots). Still, with Rondo hitting the weights, working on his J, and entering his third season with 26 games of playoff experience under his belt, I expect the match up of those two players to wind up as +2.5 in favor of Rondo.  The Sixers are good, but the Celtics are great.

[Schupac]

As far as they go, it's a well written and well thought out article.

But it doesn't factor in experience, or intagibles... or Ubuntu (and if you think Ubuntu is intangible ask Zaza Pachulia's rib cage).

[Neurotic Guy]

Kudos for the C's-Sixers analysis -- a good read and food for thought.  

I agree with nickagneta that it is exiting to be talking about a renewed rivalry with the Sixers.   The C's-Sixers history is a great one and I actually have almost no animosity toward the Sixers as I have toward the Lakers -- probably because we always beat the Sixers.  I think it was 1981 when we were down 3-1 to Philly and came back to win the next 3 games, each one in dramatic fashion -- possibly the best series ever!!  

I'd love to see the C's have some competition in the Atlantic, and I think the Sixers will have enough to push the Celtics but hopefully not enough to overtake them.  Key is to see the C's continuing to evolve as a team with younger players growing and gradually taking on more vital roles with more consistency.  Rondo, BBD, Powe, Giddens, Perk, Walker and TA represent the upside potential of this team -- all of whom could add value to the Champions with solid, consistent play.  

Hopefully , 'The Three' will  simultaneously maintain their greatness while beginning the process of sharing the spotlight, minutes and ball with the youngsters.