The evolution of Tony Allen: 4 years later, he still has "potential"

[BballTim]

I don't buy this.  Yes, if Tony was the player we all want him to be, that would be the case.  However, right now, he's not there.  This team definitely needed a guy who could create his own shot last season, and Tony wasn't that guy.

Tony Allen didn't deserve to play ahead of Ray/Pierce/Posey. They all added more to the team than Tony did. That's why I wanted Posey to be kept.

If Tony is as unique and talented a player as you say, though, it seems like the team should have been trying to sign both he *and* Posey.  Tony averaged roughly 18 mpg last year, so it's not like there wouldn't be any minutes.  I would think that Tony's slashing / penetrating / creating abilities would have been a perfect compliment to Posey's catch-and-shoot skills.  Posey could have defended PFs and SFs, while Tony defended SGs.  Sounds like they would have been perfect complementary bench players for one another.

Obviously, Danny didn't see it that way, mostly because he wasn't in love with Tony as some others are.  Otherwise, he would have picked up Tony's qualifying offer.

  Last year Posey played about 58% of his minutes as a pf. In the playoffs he played about 19% of his minutes at pf. Ainge acknowledged that they were ineffective with Posey at the pf spot as the reason that he played there so little during the postseason. If they were planning on playing him mainly at sf/sg next year then it's unlikely that there would have been very many minutes for Allen.

[JBcat]

TA's turnover rate per 48 minutes last year was 3.8.  Arguably the best offensive player in the game Kobe Bryant was at 3.9, Manu another slashing  SG was at 4.2, and Wade has led the league in turnovers per 48 minutes the last 2 years.   Quenton Ross had the least amount of turnovers of all shooting guards with only .9 TOP48 but that doesn't make him an unbelievable player.  Actually if you look at the top 15 shooting guards with the least TOP48 they are all either subpar players or spot up shooters.  Are we overemphasizing one area of the game possibly???  I'm not saying Tony is nearly the player Kobe, Manu, or Wade are but I think you understand my point when comparing to other slashing type shooting guards that his turnover issues maybe aren't as big an issue as we make out to be.  Here is a telling stat that excites me.  Tony was 27th out of all shooting guards last year in FTA per game.  Every single one of the 26 guys ahead of Tony on this list got more playing time than he did so even with a bum knee he was taking it to the hole hard.   A healthy knee with increased playing time TA should skyrocket up this list.  I think WHO mentioned it before he brings a dimension not many other role players bring in driving relentlessly to the hoop getting to the line and I think our team could use more of that especially if our big 3 become even more perimeter oriented as they age.  

Also it was mentioned a couple times in this thread the excuses for Tony's injury should have stopped midway through last season.   However it's a little unfair to make a comment like that unless if we been through an injury like the one he had.  I don't care what player it is if you have to play with a brace as big as the one he played with the whole season you are not going to be the same player you were before so I think we should cut him a little more slack for his play last year.   Plus for a player who relies on his athleticism as much as he does it makes even more of a negative impact playing with that big brace.   I told myself all year I'm going reserve complete judgement on Tony until he stops wearing that brace which should be next season.  

[Who]

I don't buy this.  Yes, if Tony was the player we all want him to be, that would be the case.  However, right now, he's not there.  This team definitely needed a guy who could create his own shot last season, and Tony wasn't that guy.

Tony Allen didn't deserve to play ahead of Ray/Pierce/Posey. They all added more to the team than Tony did. That's why I wanted Posey to be kept.

If Tony is as unique and talented a player as you say, though, it seems like the team should have been trying to sign both he *and* Posey.  Tony averaged roughly 18 mpg last year, so it's not like there wouldn't be any minutes.  I would think that Tony's slashing / penetrating / creating abilities would have been a perfect compliment to Posey's catch-and-shoot skills.  Posey could have defended PFs and SFs, while Tony defended SGs.  Sounds like they would have been perfect complementary bench players for one another.

Obviously, Danny didn't see it that way, mostly because he wasn't in love with Tony as some others are.  Otherwise, he would have picked up Tony's qualifying offer.

This is a Championship ball club, the playoffs are what matters and the minutes weren't there in the playoffs. The team was best off playing their best players and Pierce/Ray/Posey were all better than Tony which I already said. Why pay 2.7mil a year for a player who isn't going to play? That makes no sense. Especially when those three players aren't going anywhere over the next year or two. What makes sense is taking that 2.7mil and using it on a player who's going to actually be in the rotation.

Tony is both a rare and a talented role player. That doesn't mean he's better than Posey, Posey was the better player.

As for his regular season I thought Tony and Posey did well enough together. Just not well enough for small ball to be the team's best option. The team was better when they played with big men. Once small ball is ruled out there was no point having the superior player (Posey) playing only 10mpg so that a worse player can play (Tony).

Just out of interest I checked Tony's top 10 lineups to see how many there were with both himself and Posey on the wing. Only the one I'm afraid and it only played 32 minutes so it's a rotten sample size, it did well though (plus 6 with fairly impressive efficiency numbers 107 O and 90 D).

Tony was playing decent minutes but I'm hopeful that more minutes will help him play better. He's played better in the past when he's gotten more minutes and he's struggled with less minutes. He's going from being the 8th man (squeezed between the 6th and 7th man) to being the 6th man, he'll get regular minutes and more minutes in this role.

Also Tony played 16mpg when coming off the bench. After the all-star break Powe was playing about that (16.3mpg), and was the first big off the bench making Tony the 9th man (especially since Tony was in between House/Posey versus being the first big off the pine). Sammy (17.2mpg) came in late in season and pushed Tony further out of the equation. His minutes weren't that large or that consistent. Next year as the 6th man they'll be both more regular and, well, more minutes.

I worry about how he does coming off the bench.  The only time he was consistent was when he was starting every game.  

That is a worry for me too. At least he'll have the opportunity to have the next best possibility ..... a spot off the bench as the 6th man. Opportunity for more minutes and regular minutes. It's as close to starting as he's going to get.

[timepiece33]

TA's turnover rate per 48 minutes last year was 3.8.  Arguably the best offensive player in the game Kobe Bryant was at 3.9, Manu another slashing  SG was at 4.2, and Wade has led the league in turnovers per 48 minutes the last 2 years.

Turnovers per 48 minutes is highly dependent on the number of touches that player has. It is why that stat is irrelevant compared to actual turnover ratios which adjust for touches (unless you want to disregard that the offense flows through those players as opposed to Allen).  Once adjusted to touches, Tony's turnover rate is 66% higher than Kobe's, 35% higher than Ginobli's, and 22% higher than Wade's. 

People can down play it all they want, but couple that with a deplorable 10.7 PER and you see a player I don't want on the floor.  If it makes you feel any better, I feel the same way about Ross. Didn't want him on the court. 

Tony Allen is a liability on the court.  People can clamor about "unique talent" all they want, his results say something else.

I'm excited about Powe getting more of an expanded role.  Allen.  Not so much. 

[nickagneta]

TA's turnover rate per 48 minutes last year was 3.8.  Arguably the best offensive player in the game Kobe Bryant was at 3.9, Manu another slashing  SG was at 4.2, and Wade has led the league in turnovers per 48 minutes the last 2 years.

Turnovers per 48 minutes is highly dependent on the number of touches that player has. It is why that stat is irrelevant compared to actual turnover ratios which adjust for touches (unless you want to disregard that the offense flows through those players as opposed to Allen).  Once adjusted to touches, Tony's turnover rate is 66% higher than Kobe's, 35% higher than Ginobli's, and 22% higher than Wade's. 

People can down play it all they want, but couple that with a deplorable 10.7 PER and you see a player I don't want on the floor.  If it makes you feel any better, I feel the same way about Ross. Didn't want him on the court. 

Tony Allen is a liability on the court.  People can clamor about "unique talent" all they want, his results say something else.

I'm excited about Powe getting more of an expanded role.  Allen.  Not so much. 

I agree. I think Powe deserves more run than Tony. Heck I think Giddens deserves more run than Tony. Let me explain.

With Tony you can sugarcoat certain stats all you want to make it appear that he isn't as turnover prone as the best of the best SGs but let's let reality come into the discussion here. The naked eye tells me that Tony is turnover prone, especially when forced to go left. The turnover ratio tells me that he has an exceedingly high turnover ratio. turnovers per game and turnovers per minute and turnovers per 48 all indicate the exact same thing.

So if all the stats are saying he is turnover prone and so does the naked eye, I don't see where the argument is about whether he is a turnover machine. Manipulate the stats to justify in your mind Tony's effectiveness but when your TO numbers are as high across the board as his are and combine that with the aforementioned 10.7 PER(average is between 13-14), and that he has very little outside range, and you come out with the conclusion that Tony isn't all that great.

I said it before, I never thought he would be back. He is just not demonstrably better than he was four years ago when we drafted him. Even on defense it is still fairly easy to get him into the air on a head fake,shot move. His handle isn't any better and he hasn't improved his shooting or range.

Because he is no better than when he was a rookie I have to say I'd rather gamble on giving the rookie Giddens minutes than seeing Tony play the same ball he has been playing since he got here, with the exception of one one month stretch. Every pro has an outstanding month in their career, but you don't evaluate him or create expectations of him based on that month. The premise is silly, expect what he gives you every other month he has ever played not that one month.

So if I know what I can expect of Tony, give the rookie the time early on. If he surprises, you are better off than what you were. If he doesn't, put Tony back in and at least you know what to expect of him.

Because we know the only time Tony plays exceptionally well is when he starts and there isn't a snowballs chance in hell of that happening on this team.

[billysan]

I think he evolution of Tony Allen this past year could be described somewhat like this:

Coming off Knee Surgery-Tony comes into camp with an uncertain role. He knows Ray Allen will be starting and Posey will likely be the 6th man. He still has his reputation as a good perimeter defender and a poor decision maker with the ball in his hands. Doc wants him to continue working on ball handling and PG type skills.

During the first half-Tony plays sparingly and is used as a backup PG and situational defender on the wing several times without consistent minutes or a well defined role. It is apparent that Tony is still playing tentativeley on his recently repaired knee.

After the Break-Tony still is used sparingly and is definitely behind House and Posey on the depth chart making him the 10th man off the bench when Powe and Davis are figured in as rotation players.

During the playoffs-Tony is not part of the rotation, falling deeper on the depth chart behind PJ and Sam Cassell. He makes a couple of cameo appearances in the playoffs but is not a factor.

At the end of the season, Tony is considered 'gone' by most everyone because he was not made a qualifying offer. He waits in FA limbo while the 'Posey drama' unfolds. His agent gets a call and he is offered a contract only after the news breaks that Posey has signed with New Orleans. Doc makes media statements that Tony is ready for a 'breakout year'. The Celtics, despite a mild flurry of rumors are not active in the FA market but have drafted two wing players with big upside potential. The question becomes, will they play ahead of Tony Allen or be sent to the D league?

Tony Allen has had minimal interest from other teams IMO or he would have held out for more money, likely not signing with the Celtics so quickly after the loss of Posey. He is now being signed as a stopgap to play rotation minutes as needed until the two draftees develop or we add more wing players through trades or FA signings.

If Tony has, as Doc says, a breakout season then it is a win win scenario for the Celtics and Tony. Keeping him was an easy choice for the Celtics because he gets along with everyone and is relatively comfortable in the current system, not to mention he was cheap.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Turnovers per 48 minutes is highly dependent on the number of touches that player has. It is why that stat is irrelevant compared to actual turnover ratios which adjust for touches (unless you want to disregard that the offense flows through those players as opposed to Allen).  Once adjusted to touches, Tony's turnover rate is 66% higher than Kobe's, 35% higher than Ginobli's, and 22% higher than Wade's.

Actually, that's the main problem with the stat you're using it ommits plays where the player touches the ball, but doesn't put a shot up, doesn't get to the line, doesn't get an assist, and doesn't cause a turnover. A player that is a ballhog completely skews the stat in his favor for example. You have Rondo who has a hand in every play he is in the floor, yet so many of his possessions are not counted in this "great stat" because he didn't accomplish one of the above. It's completely bogus, or are you trying to tell me that Ginobili turns the ball over at a comparable rate to Rondo? Please, it's complete nonsense.

Stop arguing against Ginobili being turnover prone, because he is. The only reason I brought him up was to show that by doing other things well he can overcome that weakness, which is kinda what you're showing with the turnover %. BUT, you can't argue against him being a turnover machine because he is.  That's kinda of the point with Tony... when healthy, he does quite a few things well, like going strong to the hoop, finishing, and getting to the foul line which will improve this all great turnover percentage stat you are so fond of. Not saying he'll be Ginobili good, but he should be quite capable of being a quite decent contributor despite his turnovers.

People can down play it all they want, but couple that with a deplorable 10.7 PER and you see a player I don't want on the floor.

I don't think anyone wants that kind of Tony. The main problem I have with what you're saying is that you're drawing conclusions on a guys from a season which clearly had everything going against him while rehabing his knee from an awful injury which takes a long time recover from. It would be quite foolish to expect the same type of performance. He'll improve surely... the question is by how much, I'm willing to wait and see. We got him for cheap, and is quite a good defender anyways.

With Tony you can sugarcoat certain stats all you want to make it appear that he isn't as turnover prone as the best of the best SGs but let's let reality come into the discussion here. The naked eye tells me that Tony is turnover prone, especially when forced to go left. The turnover ratio tells me that he has an exceedingly high turnover ratio. turnovers per game and turnovers per minute and turnovers per 48 all indicate the exact same thing.

So if all the stats are saying he is turnover prone and so does the naked eye, I don't see where the argument is about whether he is a turnover machine. Manipulate the stats to justify in your mind Tony's effectiveness but when your TO numbers are as high across the board as his are and combine that with the aforementioned 10.7 PER(average is between 13-14), and that he has very little outside range, and you come out with the conclusion that Tony isn't all that great.

Is anyone arguing that Tony is not turnover prone? I think I missed that.

I said it before, I never thought he would be back. He is just not demonstrably better than he was four years ago when we drafted him. Even on defense it is still fairly easy to get him into the air on a head fake,shot move. His handle isn't any better and he hasn't improved his shooting or range.

This is what bugs me the most. "Tony Allen, the great defender". He falls for ONE head fake that was highly focused on, and suddenly he's a dumb defender that falls for head fakes constantly. Please, that's not the case. I wonder how much time Tony had to work in the offseason in his shooting mechanics last year... very little to none. Quite important, when you're not getting the lift you usually get. Quite important when your body is not responding the way you're used to. Go ask Ray Allen who struggled with his shooting form after coming from surgery himself.

[TripleOT]

I was at the game this winter in Miami, when TA started for an injured Ray Allen and absolutely destroyed Dwyane Wade, and it was an eye opener.  He used his off the dribble skills to make him look helpless defensively, and smothering him at the other end.  Even though Wade was playing a bit banged up, it was an eye opening performance.  Games like that, and the one in LA where he started at PG and helped the Cs to a huge victory, make the Cs brass hopeful that Allen can  bring that type of effort at a consistent basis if healthy this season.

Take a look at TA's splits his first two years in the league,  There wasn't a big disparity between his effectiveness as a starter and reserve, so he does have some history of being effective off the pine.  I happened to hear a rebroadcast of Danny Ainge's interview with WEEI this morning and he one of the most telling things he said was that the Celtic players, especially Pierce, really believe in TA's talent.  I'm guessing that Pierce, having dealt with Allen's defensive ability in practice for four years, knows the guy can at least do one thing better than 90%  of the player in the league - stay with him on the perimeter like flypaper. 

As a worse case scenario, if TA merely plays good defense and makes runouts, drives, and opportunity baskets, he should be decent off the bench.             

[Who]

I don't like the turnover ratio stat. I think it harshly evaluates players who don't shoot the ball often. I don't believe it adds anything more than just counting the actual turnovers, it isn't measured well enough.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I don't like the turnover ratio stat. I think it harshly evaluates players who don't shoot the ball often. I don't believe it adds anything more than just counting the actual turnovers, it isn't measured well enough.

It's because the formula is missing some important components that are currently not meassured by the NBA. Times the player actually touches the ball, and times he makes an accurate pass (regardless if it's an assist or not). Ballhogs skew this stat in their favor. Tony Allen could catch the ball in half court and hoist a shot up, and suddenly his turnover % would improve. That's how ridiculous that stat is.

[nickagneta]

I have to admit, you're right about the turnover ratio stat. It seems absolutely ridiculous that the only time anything counts for or against you is when you put up a measureable stat. My guess is that most point guards turnover ratios are not a good indicator as to just how well they can handle the ball.

Rondo, as already discussed, is league wide, a perfect example. He doesn't rack up the assists but he initiates just about every single possession up the floor for the Celtics and yet most of those possessions don't count towards his ratio.

Pretty dumb stat now that it has been explained.

Regarding my earlier head fake comment, I stand by it. I am not saying Tony is a bad defender. He's not. He's quite a good defender, it's the only part of his game I like. But that Billups move you are referencing is not the only time Tony has fallen for that fake. He does it a bunch.

I remember another one towards the end of a quarter in the playoffs where he basically had successfully trapped the guy in the corner and went for the headfake. It is still a problem defensively for him as it has always been.

He doesn't learn. He is a product of his body and not his mind. That I don't like.

[EJPLAYA]

I think everyone has valid points on here for both sides of the argument. I don't think actually anyone really disagrees about where TA currently is at or his skill set. I think the question is whether you feel that he can recover from his injuries, return to the athletic form he had prior, and stop making the kind of mistakes that he has a reputation for. One would hope his experience would help with the latter. It hasn't appeared to, which I know some blame on the injury. I question his BBall IQ allowing him to ever improve this. If he gets his athleticism back then I think that will allow him to help in spite of these mistakes. If he doesn't then he is likely to see a lot of the bench. I am hoping for the former, because if not he is a wasted spot. Just not too sure at this point!

[BudweiserCeltic]

Regarding my earlier head fake comment, I stand by it. I am not saying Tony is a bad defender. He's not. He's quite a good defender, it's the only part of his game I like. But that Billups move you are referencing is not the only time Tony has fallen for that fake. He does it a bunch.

I remember another one towards the end of a quarter in the playoffs where he basically had successfully trapped the guy in the corner and went for the headfake. It is still a problem defensively for him as it has always been.

I just feel that the frequency alluded to him falling for head fakes has been exaggerated quite a bit. Sure it's something he needs to work on, but I don't see it as big as a problem as it's being made out to be. I think you can agree with me that if that Billups play would've never occured, practically no one would be discussing this Tony Allen problem. Because of the Billups play, Tony has been made to be the poster boy of falling for head fakes... I find a bit of an exaggeration in this regard.

[threzd]

Regarding my earlier head fake comment, I stand by it. I am not saying Tony is a bad defender. He's not. He's quite a good defender, it's the only part of his game I like. But that Billups move you are referencing is not the only time Tony has fallen for that fake. He does it a bunch.

I remember another one towards the end of a quarter in the playoffs where he basically had successfully trapped the guy in the corner and went for the headfake. It is still a problem defensively for him as it has always been.

I just feel that the frequency alluded to him falling for head fakes has been exaggerated quite a bit. Sure it's something he needs to work on, but I don't see it as big as a problem as it's being made out to be. I think you can agree with me that if that Billups play would've never occured, practically no one would be discussing this Tony Allen problem. Because of the Billups play, Tony has been made to be the poster boy of falling for head fakes... I find a bit of an exaggeration in this regard.

I remember a game against San Antonio this year where Manu tried the headfake during a clutch situation in the 4th on Tony, Tony didn't bite and instead sidestepped while Manu tried to lean in, resulting in an awfully ugly shot.

[rondofan1255]

I remember that game too. Manu flopped (and it looked grossly floppish) several times in the last minute or two of the game, when the Spurs were trailing. TA backed away on one important possession.

It definitely was an exaggerated weakness, because the headfake that he went for against Billups was "famous" after that Det-Bos game.