Celtics Depth Chart: Fill In the Gaping Holes

[Lucky17]

I just don't see any more 'gaping' holes if we can land House and Barnes.  If the goal is winning number 18 - and it takes the whole MLE to get those 2... then why not? 
Its not like they would be getting long term deals... 

The rookies can sign the standard rookie deals, they don't need to be on the MLE.  And we can save the LLE and an empty roster spot to add another big mid-season.  Powe and Baby can hold it down up front till then, and we have OBryant and Scal ready to deliver 6 fouls if needed.  A thinner front line got us to 66 wins last year...

RR, RA, PP, KG, KP
BB, LP, EH, MB, BS
GP, JG, BW, PO,

I see your point D Dub, but I still doubt we could get both those two, and whether it'd be enough. House recently said he's looking for both security and money in his next deal. And I don't know off-hand what Barnes made last year, but I'd imagine he's going to want a deal starting at $3 mil. I think we'd be lucky to get both House and Barnes to split the MLE.

[paintitgreen]

In my opinion, if we wouldn't overpay for Posey, a guy we knew could help us, why would we overpay for a guy like Matt Barnes. I've seen posts saying split the MLE between House and Barnes. Why would we give both those guys way more than we need to? Right now, we're offering House the minimum. Personally, I think that's a bit of an insult given what House gave us last year. I think a 2 year, $3.5 mil or 3 year, $5 mil offer would at least give him a raise and a few years. If he doesn't want to take it, he can walk. I think he would take it, personally, and we wouldn't have to use any MLE money to do it, since it would qualify for the non-Bird Veteran Free Agent exception (resigning a player with less than 2 years on the team for no more than 120% of his prior salary).

As for Barnes, I'd offer him more - probably a 3 year deal starting between $2.5 and 3 million. I don't like him that much, but we do need some type of backup 3 and I just don't like anything else I see on the market at all.

[Jon]

I'd rather go with backup PG like Cassell, Livingtson, House or the like; a swingman like Miles, Barnes, or Finley; and then another big man, preferably Kurt Thomas, I would even settle for Robert Horry though.  He seems fairly washed up, but I wouldn't mind having him around to spell Kevin Garnett for 10 mpg.  He can still spread the floor if he can't do anything else. 

[nickagneta]

If we are going to do this let's do it right. Here is the breakdown of who played what positions last year. Black equals players that are already signed for this year. Red equals players that will not be on the team next year or are at the moment not signed for next year.

BTW all numbers brought to you by way of 82games.com. All values are at whole number values and hence totals at each position are less than 100% cumulative. Players playing less than 1% at a position are not listed.

CENTER

Perkins - 48%
Davis - 21%
Garnett - 13%
Powe - 7%
Pollard - 4%
Brown - 3%

POWER FORWARD

Garnett - 45%
Posey - 26%
Powe - 13%
Scalabrine - 9%
Brown - 2%
Pierce - 1%
Davis - 1%

SMALL FORWARD

Pierce 66%
Posey - 19%
R Allen - 9%
Scalabrine - 2%
T Allen - 1%

SHOOTING GUARD

R Allen - 55%
T Allen - 31%
House - 6%
Pierce - 4%

POINT GUARD

Rondo - 58%
House - 30%
Cassell - 6%
Pruitt - 2%
T Allen - 1%


So what does this tell us?

Well the easy thing is that we need to replace or resign the folowing time at each position:

Center - 7% or about 4 minutes
Power Forward - 28% or about 14 minutes
Small Forward - 20% or about 10 minutes
Shooting Guard - 37% or about 18 minutes
Point Guard - 38% or about 19 minutes

And the players that will leave or have yet to resign, these are their minutes:

Posey - 24.6 MPG - 74 Games
House - 19.0 MPG - 78 Games
Allen - 18.4 MPG - 75 Games
Cassell - 17.5 MPG - 17 Games
Brown - 11.6 MPG - 18 Games
Pollard - 7.9 MPG - 22 Games

So let's analyze:

On the who's not here side of things:
We know Posey and Brown are gone.
We hope Cassell and Pollard are gone.
We are not sure of the status of House and Allen.

On the who is here side of things:
We signed O'Bryant.
We drafted Walker and Giddens.
There is a chance that certain players from last year will be asked to play more minutes. (Perkins, Rondo, Powe, Davis, Pruitt)
I'll assume some players will play about the same amount of minutes(Pierce, Allen, Garnett, Scalabrine)

So where do we go from here? That all depends on how much more time the players who would be expected to play more time will play, how much the youngsters play, who Danny brings in/back as players to be productive bench players, as well as where the players will play.

This what what I mean as to where the players will play. Let's as an example look at the center position:

Perkins - 48%
Davis - 21%
Garnett - 13%
Powe - 7%
Pollard - 4%
Brown - 3%

According to this we need to replace 7% of the total yearly playing time or about 4 MPG, if everything else stays the same. But if Perk increase his minutes from 24.5 MPG to 30 MPG not only does that eradicate the need to replace Brown and Pollards minutes it also allows KG to play an extra 1.5 MPG at his better and desired position of PF. If O'Bryant is then given Powe 7% or about 4 MPG then Powe too can go towards playing more at his better and more natural position of PF. Suddenly instaead of having to replace 14 MBG of time at PF the team only needs to replace about 8.5 MPG there.

Players in all teams play in different positions so labeling that we need to find a SF to replace Posey at that position is misleading. First, Posey played more time at PF. Second by signing or trading drafting players at other positions or playing other members on the team some of his minutes, it is possible to replace him at SF without actually signing or trading for a SF.

So how do we indeed fill in the gaps in the depth charts? Well I hope the above shows that its a whole heck of a lot different than just plugging a name into a slot.

[wdleehi]

Aroyo
Ross (TA is a 2nd choice)
Nachbar (Gomes if T-Wolves want to give him up
(Powe)
Thomas (Elson if he resigns with SA)

[vwoodruff]

Following Ainge's interview, I'm in a prognosticating mood...

Tony Allen is out... "Tony's done well with starter's minutes, but poorly in 4 minute stints." Unless...

Eddie House will be back if he's willing to take less dollars. COnsidering his pinball career thus far, it seems like he might realize that the Cs are a good fit and worth fewer dollars. Plus, think of the allowance he'd have to pay Lil' House if he couldn't be team mascot for a team like the Clips. But...

It sounds like Ainge is targeting a few low cost, high reward players. I think he's looking heavily at Livingston, Barnes, Kwame and maybe Wells, Livington especially. The entire league is wondering whether he'll recover from that injury. Ainge is likely selling him, "Come to Boston, show that you got the skillset, win a championship, then get paid." I have to think that both of them will think long and hard on it. Barnes didn't get paid last summer and didn't do much to substantiate a change last season, and Livingston could end up with a big payday surrounded by the likes of KG, PP, and RA.

Jannero Pargo, maybe. It all depends on NOLA. If they want Pargo and are willing to give him three years, I imagine he'll sign.

And of course, Robert Swift and Ryan Gomes.


So Ainge...

1) Checks in with Pargo. No Pargo.

2) Talks to Livingston. Livingston bites.

3) With Livingston and Pruitt set to compete for backup minutes, House walks.

4) Doesn't even talk to Swift or GOmes because he realizes they aren't going to sign an offer sheet at less than their respective teams will match.

5) Low balls Barnes, who opts for more money elsewhere.

6) Passes on Wells.

7) Signs Walker with money out of the MLE.

Pressures Bartelstein and Giddens to favorable rookie scale deal.

9) Offers a cut of MLE to Kwame. Kwame accepts.

10) Realizes he needs Tony Allen and signs him to Bird-right deal.

Opening Night Roster

PG - Rondo/Livingston/Pruitt
SG - Allen/Giddens/(Pruitt)
SF - Pierce/Allen/Scalabrine/Walker
PF - Garnett/Powe/Davis
C - Perkins/K. Brown/O'Bryant

[D Dub]

Aroyo
Ross (TA is a 2nd choice)
Nachbar (Gomes if T-Wolves want to give him up
(Powe)
Thomas (Elson if he resigns with SA)

The problem is that none of those guys spread the floor like Eddie House and Matt Barnes would.

[wdleehi]

Aroyo
Ross (TA is a 2nd choice)
Nachbar (Gomes if T-Wolves want to give him up
(Powe)
Thomas (Elson if he resigns with SA)

The problem is that none of those guys spread the floor like Eddie House and Matt Barnes would.

Barnes shot .293 last year.  Career, .324

Nachbar shot .359 last year.  Career, .375


Arroyo isn't the threat outside, but is respectable. 

[cordobes]

SHOOTING GUARD

R Allen - 55%
T Allen - 31%
House - 6%
Pierce - 4%

I've already asked this, but I'll ask it again: who backed up Ray Allen in the playoffs? House only played at the 1, Tony Allen didn't play more than 10 minutes besides garbage time.

Posey did. And not only for those 8 minutes that Allen rested in average. Every time that Pierce was resting and we had a Ray-James combo on the pitch, Posey was the one playing at the 2 on the offense.

This kind of stats is very, very misleading. Positions are not that important (and they count even less in a system where the wingers are interchangeable like Boston's), the roles the players fill in both sides of the court is what really matters.

[Mr October]

PG: Dooling (or Arroyo/House)
Wing: Ross (or Evans/TA/Wells)

then pick up another body later in the year. ..or take a flier on Miles, Barnes, etc.

[nickagneta]

SHOOTING GUARD

R Allen - 55%
T Allen - 31%
House - 6%
Pierce - 4%

I've already asked this, but I'll ask it again: who backed up Ray Allen in the playoffs? House only played at the 1, Tony Allen didn't play more than 10 minutes besides garbage time.

Posey did. And not only for those 8 minutes that Allen rested in average. Every time that Pierce was resting and we had a Ray-James combo on the pitch, Posey was the one playing at the 2 on the offense.

This kind of stats is very, very misleading. Positions are not that important (and they count even less in a system where the wingers are interchangeable like Boston's), the roles the players fill in both sides of the court is what really matters.

Who in the name of Red Auerbach is discussing playoff rosters, playoff rotations or specific game assignments?

Anyone? Anyone?

Oh, just cordobes, errr, sorry, Socrates.

I'm discussing the regular season and the players that will be on the roster at the season opener. It is quite possible that the 8-9 man rotation that the Celtics put forth in the playoffs will be quite different from who will be starting this season and where they will start this season.

If I told you at this point last year that any of the following would happen you would have laughed at me:
-Davis would be a part of the playoff rotation for a couple of weeks
-Powe would average 9 min, 6.5 pts and 3 rebs in the NBA and score 21 pts and be the star of a win in the Finals
-Perkins would average nearly 10 pts, 10 rebs, and over 1 block in a 6 game ECF series against the vaunted Pistons
- Rondo would average nearly 10 pts, 7 asts, 4 rebs, 1.75 stls and have a 3.66 ast/to ratio and be the reason for the Celtics ultimate success in the playoff. When Rondo was bad Celtics lost, when Rondo was good celtics won.
-Sam cassell and PJ brown would be on the team making significant playoff contributions(in Sam's case sometime a contribution towards them losing).

As much as breaking down the minutes might not be your way of looking at how players can be replaced, it is still a useful tool to see what the teams tendencies were and to see where the teams strengths and weaknesses were.

I'm watching the Danny interview on CSN and Danny just said that Posey didn't play the 4 in the playoffs except for game 4 Lakers and when he played the 4 in the regular season they were not good. He admitted they are better constructed and have better success when they play big. Danny's words not mine.

If that is the way they are looking at it they just may have used data that I broke down earlier in deciding that Posey is expendable and replaceable be acquiring players that fit better into a team that plays big.

Just because this team play a ton of small ball and won it all doesn't mean they don't have the personel to change gears and play a different type of game and win it all again. After watching that interview, I standing even more behind all my stances thus far this offseason as Danny pretty much just mirrored and admitted to a lot of whayt I have been saying since late June.

[Edgar]

If Delonte isnt coming through that door
I can live with Carlos, at least someone on the team will understand my english

[cordobes]

SHOOTING GUARD

R Allen - 55%
T Allen - 31%
House - 6%
Pierce - 4%

I've already asked this, but I'll ask it again: who backed up Ray Allen in the playoffs? House only played at the 1, Tony Allen didn't play more than 10 minutes besides garbage time.

Posey did. And not only for those 8 minutes that Allen rested in average. Every time that Pierce was resting and we had a Ray-James combo on the pitch, Posey was the one playing at the 2 on the offense.

This kind of stats is very, very misleading. Positions are not that important (and they count even less in a system where the wingers are interchangeable like Boston's), the roles the players fill in both sides of the court is what really matters.

Who in the name of Red Auerbach is discussing playoff rosters, playoff rotations or specific game assignments?

Anyone? Anyone?

Oh, just cordobes, errr, sorry, Socrates.

I'm discussing the regular season and the players that will be on the roster at the season opener. It is quite possible that the 8-9 man rotation that the Celtics put forth in the playoffs will be quite different from who will be starting this season and where they will start this season.

If I told you at this point last year that any of the following would happen you would have laughed at me:
-Davis would be a part of the playoff rotation for a couple of weeks
-Powe would average 9 min, 6.5 pts and 3 rebs in the NBA and score 21 pts and be the star of a win in the Finals
-Perkins would average nearly 10 pts, 10 rebs, and over 1 block in a 6 game ECF series against the vaunted Pistons
- Rondo would average nearly 10 pts, 7 asts, 4 rebs, 1.75 stls and have a 3.66 ast/to ratio and be the reason for the Celtics ultimate success in the playoff. When Rondo was bad Celtics lost, when Rondo was good celtics won.
-Sam cassell and PJ brown would be on the team making significant playoff contributions(in Sam's case sometime a contribution towards them losing).

As much as breaking down the minutes might not be your way of looking at how players can be replaced, it is still a useful tool to see what the teams tendencies were and to see where the teams strengths and weaknesses were.

I'm watching the Danny interview on CSN and Danny just said that Posey didn't play the 4 in the playoffs except for game 4 Lakers and when he played the 4 in the regular season they were not good. He admitted they are better constructed and have better success when they play big. Danny's words not mine.

If that is the way they are looking at it they just may have used data that I broke down earlier in deciding that Posey is expendable and replaceable be acquiring players that fit better into a team that plays big.

Just because this team play a ton of small ball and won it all doesn't mean they don't have the personel to change gears and play a different type of game and win it all again. After watching that interview, I standing even more behind all my stances thus far this offseason as Danny pretty much just mirrored and admitted to a lot of whayt I have been saying since late June.

Who in the name of Red Auerbach is discussing playoff rosters, playoff rotations or specific game assignments?

I've talked about the playoffs rotation just to make my point more evident. Even in the regular season, Posey played at the 2. Every single time he substituted Pierce or Allen. The guys at 82games allocate him the SF minutes because they don't see the games.

But it's an undeniable truth that I'm more interested in the playoffs rotation than in the regular season. I have no problems with the rookies playing 15mpg during the regular season. I don't think that would be wise in the playoffs. Nice to see that you agree that his roster needs more quality to face the playoffs. Specific games assignments are very important to tone down expectations about what some player can do. For example, the idea of guys like Barnes or Gomes playing a big role in our wing rotation makes me cringe. Pointing out a few wingers that would burn them in every single player (and I'm not being hyperbolic) can help making this more clear to the others. 



As much as breaking down the minutes might not be your way of looking at how players can be replaced, it is still a useful tool to see what the teams tendencies were and to see where the teams strengths and weaknesses were.

My problem is not with breaking down the minutes. My problem is doing it with inaccurate data. This is what I'm trying to say.

I'm watching the Danny interview on CSN and Danny just said that Posey didn't play the 4 in the playoffs except for game 4 Lakers and when he played the 4 in the regular season they were not good. He admitted they are better constructed and have better success when they play big. Danny's words not mine.

Humm... so why was Danny interested in keeping Posey? Why offering him a 3 year MLE contract? I have no idea why retaining Posey would force us to play him at the 4.


If I told you at this point last year that any of the following would happen you would have laughed at me:

I don't know if I'd laugh or not (frankly, I was not surprised with what those guys produced), but what's the point here? That we don't know what's going to happen? Yeah, I suppose none of us is a prophet.

- Rondo would average nearly 10 pts, 7 asts, 4 rebs, 1.75 stls and have a 3.66 ast/to ratio and be the reason for the Celtics ultimate success in the playoff. When Rondo was bad Celtics lost, when Rondo was good celtics won.

About this one in particular: the C's won a couple of games with Rondo playing terribly. Game 4 of the finals, for example. I would say that the Celtics won despite of Rondo's extremely inconsistent displays in the playoffs.

[nickagneta]

Suddenly 82games.com is not a credible source for information. Interesting theory. When you don't like the results of a report or proof, discredit the source, no matter how reliable or how little or non existant the proof thereof. You must be a lawyer in real life cordobes.

Show me that 82games.com is consistently wrong in their statistics and I will readjust my thinking. Until then the whole 82games.com is an inaccurate source for data doesn't register in my book.

I never said that Danny wasn't interested in signing Posey. I said that he admitted the team played worse when Posey played the 4. I said the team's poor performance with Posey playing the 4 might have been a reason why Danny thought Posey was expendable.

Another might have been the amount of years Posey wanted. I don't know. But Danny did feel Posey expendable, because he let him go. It is, after all, real easy in negotiations to offer something you know is going to be turned down for the sake of apprearances later on. That could be just as likely what happened as your interpretation that Danny really wanted him here.

I posted what I did to show that there's more to creating the 2008-09 Celtics, a team that during the regular season has to win enough to get to the postseason and then win enough to win the championship, than just plugging in names. You have to see what you have, what you can expect from what you have, decide how you want to best utilize what you have and then find players that move that plan forward.

You counter that by instantly saying what I am doing is misleading because of playoff matchups and how last years playoff matchups worked and so we must copy that format or only use that strategy to win and that throwing 25 million at Posey would have accoplished that? I am still at a loss to understand your point other than wanting to discredit what I brought forth to the discussion. I think breaking things down as to what you might expect to be missing and then how you might want to proceed is useful.


Somehow I am not surprised by your admission that if asked last year if some of the seemingly, extremely unlikely results I listed would happen, you wouldn't have been surprised back then by it. Because you just might have been one of the few on the planet who would have.

Lastly, if your entire point was that we are going to miss Posey because he played the 2 for a bit in the playoffs and that he supposedly played the 2 often this year(even if there is no evidence of this except in your own view of watching last year's regular season games, because statitcians didn't see it your way), why are you bringing it up in a thread discussing how to fill in holes on the bench. It seems to me that discussion belongs in another thread discussing Posey specifically, a thread that perhaps I ignored addressing just such a point in because I thought it had little merit even there.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Posey was nothing spectacular (sucked many times) playing as a "SG" during the playoffs, so I really don't see the point of bring it up for discussion myself. Unless the other team was playing 3 forwards (which makes Posey playing "SG" irrelevant) or the other team had a bum at a SG, Posey struggled quite a bit playing that role.

Posey is at his best, and of real use, when he stays as a SF or to spook a PG through a stretch and given some unique circumstances. He's not that good guarding SG's, unless they're of the slow/big kind (borderline small forwards).

Posey was decent at most against Joe Johnson. Cleveland is irrelevant because of the types of lineups they throw out, mostly with 3 forwards at a time. Detroit, he completely sucked as a 2 guard. Lakers, was there anyone of significance playing as a SG? Kobe, who is borderline SF, and actually got the better of Posey and some jackass named Sasha.

Posey playing the 2 is not a big factor, and losing him for that role is of little to no importance.

You can sign a combo guard, and play the 3-man rotation game with the PG-SG, and then do the 2-man rotation game with the SF. In essence, have a 5-man rotation between the 1-3 positions. It won't look the same as Posey, but the result would be the same (given, Posey would've been the better option by the looks of it, but there's no reason why we can't have a competent rotation without Posey).