THE DRAFT: What I've learned...

[jbhdva]

In the past year and a half, I have learned something about the draft for the Celtics, and other teams should listen as well, is that the draft is quite bogus.

Okay, maybe it's not bogus because the draft has brought some many great players into this league. On the other hand, lately, the draft is a hard sell for fans.

I trust Danny in making smart draft picks, after all, he got Big Baby and Leon Powe didn't he? I don't mind picking in the high 20s or 30s anymore, because of this thing I learned: YOU CANNOT RELY ON THE DRAFT TO SAVE YOUR FRANCHISE, WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS, OR TO EVEN WIN A LOT OF GAMES---there I said it.

If you don't believe me, lets look at the Celtics' history of the draft, in which I mean the lottery. Remember back in 1996-97 after the season we won an outstanding 15 games (I try to forget that, but I can't, sorry), that was also the Year of Duncan--the Wake Forest Wonder who we all thought would be the savior to all of our problems. The lottery came and what happened, we got the 3rd and 5th picks (Chauncey Billups and Ron Mercer respectively). We can't seem to get away from that 5th pick can we? Well, that day, we watched Tim Duncan pass by the Celtics to go to the San Antonio Spurs and he helped them win 4 titles. Yeah, we got shafted.

Last year's draft was no different, second worst record in the league and we had our eyes on Greg Oden and/or Kevin Durant, we had the second worst record, we have to get one of those guys right? Right? RIGHT??? However, I remember the Year of Duncan, we also had the second worst record in the league, which was amazing that Golden State (I think that's who it was) had a worse record than 15 wins). So, my heart had its hopes up when my head was saying, "WAKE UP! YOU'RE CRAZY! US GETTING A #1 OR #2 PICK!!! YOU'RE OUT OF YOUR MIND." As usual my heart overruled my head and I believed that Greg Oden or Kevin Durant would be playing for our Celtics. Lottery came---PICK #5---again. It was around this time I realized that the Celtics would never, ever, ever get a #1 pick. You know how your told never say never, I'M SAYING NEVER!

I think this is what happens with a lot of teams who rely on the lottery. When they rely on it, they seem to never get any better. They never really make the playoffs, players don't live up to their expectations, their numbers are there but they're not winning, and really, if they're not the #1 or #2 pick (most of the time) you're pretty much going to serve as a ground for the picks to get more experience, get better and then go somewhere else where they can win titles.

Also, remember the Year of LeBron, we got the 7th pick I think and I think our record was about the same as Portland's last year, when they got Oden. The Draft used to be great until the lottery ruined it, ruined it, ruined it. Don't get me wrong though, a lot of players drafted has brought relative success to their franchises, Carmelo Anthony comes to mind (but he's title-less and exits the first round of the playoffs) and Steve Nash (but also title-less).

Thankfully, Danny Ainge (who's really Red's best successor) flipped of the draft lottery and said that the Celtics will scout for talent and draft on their own terms. The 5th pick went to Seattle and we ended up with Ray Allen, which convinced Kevin Garnett to come here. Look where we are at now...WORLD CHAMPIONS.

I think Danny took a cue from Red and basically what the Lakers do about every year. I hate the Lakers, but they have been in the playoffs 55 times in their 60 year history and it ain't because of top lottery picks. In fact, I don't think the Lakers have even really used the lottery. Kobe Bryant was the 13th pick, but he was drafted by the Charlotte Hornets (traded for Vlade Divac, a move they never should have made). The Lakers are playoff contenders through FREE AGENCY AND TRADES! Pau Gasol wasn't drafted by them was he? Finally, we have a General Manager who is willing to do what Red did about every year, which is trade, wheel and deal in the free agency market to build playoff and hopefully title contenders.

Hopefully, if Danny stays in the driver's seat, he'll do the same thing. He can nab some great role players higher up in the draft. You're superstars can win games for you, but it's your role players that can help take you to the promise land.

I know I'm ranting and I don't have to worry about this for a while, and maybe I'm ranting because of getting shafted in the draft year after year, but now, I've learned that the lottery was made to keep low-level teams at the low level. Teams like Charlotte, Memphis (who I feel sorry for), LA Clippers, Milwaukee, Atlanta, and others. Bad luck will continue if you let it and Danny ended it this season. Hit it with a sledgehammer.

Like Danny said, which I agree with: "I hope we pick 30th every year."

[SShoreFan 2.0]

The only way a team "wins" with the draft is when they get a mega superstar and even then that is only a single cog. 

In the case of the Spurs, Duncan was the cog the team needed to get over the top. 

However, in the case of Cleveland, its been proven that James needs stronger supporting cast to get over the hump (see the Bulls as an example).

[libermaniac]

You are right and wrong.  You can't rely exclusively on the draft, but keep in mind that the trades the C's made to win a title were only possible due to the draft picks that we made (KG) and the pick that we had (#5).

As you pointed out, you do need to make trades, or sign FAs, as I can't think of any team that just bottomed out for a few years and got several young talented players and just won as they grew up.  You do need veterans to win.

[LarBrd33]

the draft is the best and pretty much the ONLY way you can get a franchise superstar who is under 30 years old.  Unless your team is in a warm climate or New York and has a ton of cap space.

I mean really.   We landed KG, but he's 32 years old.   The only way you get a young LeBron or a KG or a Duncan or a Chris Paul is through the draft.   Because once a team lands a 19-22 year old phenom superstar it's not going to just trade him away.  I guess Shaq is an example of landing a superstar through free agency, but the Lakers will always have an advantage due to being in Los Angeles.

Teams who get that kind of player will hold on to him forever... until it's apparent that they failed at building a team around him  for the past decade... and then they ship him away when he gets old like the Sixers did with Iverson.

Teams who have top 5 picks have a reason to be excited about the draft.  It doesn't always work out, but it's key to landing a Jordan, Bird, Magic, etc.... players who will lead a franchise to championships and provide 10-15 years of contention. 

[Jon]

The only way a team "wins" with the draft is when they get a mega superstar and even then that is only a single cog. 

In the case of the Spurs, Duncan was the cog the team needed to get over the top. 

However, in the case of Cleveland, its been proven that James needs stronger supporting cast to get over the hump (see the Bulls as an example).

And with the Spurs, it was more luck than anything.  Had Robinson not gone down with an injury that year, that team would've been a 50+ win team.  Add Duncan to that, and, well, you know the rest.

It is a good point, though, that rebuilding with young players isn't always the way to go.  As excited as some people are about the Trail Blazers, I also look at teams like the Bulls of a few years ago.  Everyone thought that they had all the young pieces to be a contender, but that never worked out. 

[paintitgreen]

I don't know, what's clear to me is you have to get stars, which usually means either a top 5 pick or a huge trade. It's interesting, the last bunch of teams to win the title have all been very different but some similarities.

08 Celtics - trades for superstars, top 10 pick, FA & low draft pick role players
05, 07 Spurs - #1 pick, good drafting, FA role players
06 Heat - good top 5 draft pick, big trade, FA & low draft pick role players
04 Pistons - trades and free agency
99, 03 Spurs - 2 #1 picks, good drafting, FA role players
00-02 Lakers - trade for top superstar, great 13th pick, FA role players
91-93, 96-98 Bulls - drafted 2 stars in top 5, FA role players
94-95 Rockets - #1 pick, trade for stars, draft pick & FA role players

Only one team I think is truly unique - the 04 Pistons, who had no real superstar just a group of very good players who came in through trades and free agency and sort of were the perfect storm. Everybody else, though, had some stars. Some primarily used a top pick or picks to get the stars (Spurs, Bulls), some primarily used trades (Celtics, Lakers), some used a combo (Rockets, Heat). However, one common thread - all had intelligent later draft picks and free agents come in to fill roles. So drafting well is really important. Where are we last year if we had picked Marcus Williams instead of Rondo? What if we didn't take Perk? What if we had gotten Swift instead of Al a few years back?

Smart draft picks are absolutely crucial, as our team shows. But clearly, so are good FA signings and the use of assets to make smart trades for great players. The last few years of the draft have simply taught me that it is an exercise in taking the best talent available, and must be used intelligently in conjunction with free agency and trades to build a good team.

[KJ33]

I mostly agree with the points you have made.  I debated with a poster a ways back who was lamenting how corrupt the lottery system was because it rewarded teams who lose on purpose.  I made the point that in every other league, the absolute worst team gets the 1st pick, not the Portland's or Chicago's of the world who had far from the worst record.  Losing on purpose to get the highest % chance at the top pick, which is still less than a 50% proposition, is a shaky strategy at best.  Besides, as your post pointed out, how big is the reward really?  If teams want to lose on purpose to increase their chances (and it is only a chance mind you) of getting a high pick, let 'em, they are not getting some huge advantage by doing so.  As you said, unless you get a Duncan, and even then, they had David Robinson waiting in the wings, history shows getting a top draft pick is no sure ticket to the Championship.

[Roy Hobbs]

Just about every team in recent championship history has had at least one legitimate superstar that it drafted.  The one notable exception to that is the 2004 Pistons (who drafted only Tayshaun Prince). 

You could argue that the Celtics are also an exception, but Paul Pierce was the Finals MVP, and was obviously a key piece to the championship.  The Celtics also parlayed a top draft pick into Ray Allen, and we wouldn't have obtained KG if not for trading the #7 pick for Ratliff's contract. 

[jbhdva]

I see what you all mean and I guess there are a lot of flaws in my argument. I'm not really saying that the draft is utter crap (which I indicated in my earlier post), I'm just saying that the lottery is extremely flawed! The draft has brought great players such as Bird, Magic and of course Jordan.

However, those players were drafted before the creation of the lottery (uncertain about Jordan's draft year...feel free to correct me). All I'm saying is that as a franchise, if you want to get any better and you have a team of players who are young, inconsistent and lacking direction, and ownership unwilling to open their wallets, then depending on the lottery is almost certain death. Really, teams are hoping to get lucky.

That's what the problem is with teams like, for example, the Charlotte Bobcats and the Los Angeles Clippers (who just signed Baron Davis, oh ho). The Bobcats are a perfect example, they've had a top ten pick in the lottery about every year since their formation. Living in Virginia, they're the closest NBA team to see live. In fact I saw the famous Ray Allen buzzer beater there! Anyhow, I realized that they have some talented players, but they do lack direction in their management and ownership. Yes, they've hired Larry Brown and I expect the Bobcats to be a little better, I don't know how much. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention Memphis. They also have top picks every year, they drafted Pau Gasol and he took them to the playoffs, but never got beyond the first round. That's a team that relies on the lottery, same with the Bobcats and it was the same for the Celtics throughout the 90s.

On the other hand, the Celtics management did squander some of their top picks before and bad luck along with poor management and ownership didn't help either.

I guess it's a double edged sword. But I believe the bottom line is, if you want to win and I mean WIN, you're going to have to SPEND!

Thankfully Danny had a Plan B if we didn't get the top two picks. Hopefully, Danny won't let the lottery determine what kind of talent he gets. Get some guys who can work well within the system and they'll be fine.

Thank you all for your comments and replies.

[Roy Hobbs]

All I'm saying is that as a franchise, if you want to get any better and you have a team of players who are young, inconsistent and lacking direction, and ownership unwilling to open their wallets, then depending on the lottery is almost certain death. Really, teams are hoping to get lucky.

I agree on that.  Some teams are going to instantly "get rich" through the lottery.  Those are the teams who are lucky enough to win the ping pong ball shuffle in a year there is a bona fide superstar. 

Teams like San Antonio, Cleveland, and Orlando all lucked out not only by beating the odds to get the #1 pick (even the worst team has a 75% chance of not selecting first), but also doing it in a draft with an amazing player at the top of the draft.

Other teams, though, that have gotten the #1 pick have struggled.  Remember, Kenyon Martin, Glenn Robinson, Joe Smith, and a whole host of other disappointments were selected first overall. 

Because nothing is guaranteed, I certainly understand the point of view that suggests it's better to rely upon veteran talent.

[Chief]

Danny Ainge has got it figured out. You build championship teams with expiring contracts and smart draft choices (which become trade bait later). But if you sit on those expiring contracts, like Chicago did with PJ Brown, you get nothing in return. And cold weather cities like Chicago and Boston have not been been attracting superstar FAs in recent years, no matter how much money you have to spend. That's why I am so adamant about trading Ray Allen before his contract expires.