GC, okay, I've got to respect your thinking. And I would agree, you can't have enough good players who play aggressive D.
Apart from Posey, here are my thoughts. With Rondo, Ray, Pierce, KG, Perk, Posey, Powe and Baby, we would have our starting five, Sixth Man, and backups at power forward. That leaves two major areas - backup point and backup center, plus probably another need at 2-guard.
Here's who I'm interested in from the unrestricted FA list:
1) Big men - I'm expecting PJ Brown to retire. I am looking for legit centers (not PFs) who can play D. I'd keep Pollard for the veterans' minimum (no luxury tax) plus look for one of these guys: Kurt Thomas, DeSagana Diop, Theo Ratliff, maybe even take a flier on Patrick O'Bryant and hope we can get him to keep up with defensive rotations, since he can block shots.
Ratliff might consider coming for the vet's minimum - I think he'll be pushed out in Detroit, since they want to give Amir Johnson and Maxiell more minutes, and if they trade Wallace or McDyess, it will likely be for another big man, plus he seemed to like being in Boston and said a lot of complimentary things about our organization and medical staff after he left. If not the minimum, I think he can be had for about $2 mil a year - maybe a portion of the MLE or the whole LLE.
Thomas would cost more, probably $3-4 mil a year, and competition for him would be tougher. I think SA, Phoenix, LA, and Dallas, at least, will have him on their radar. Diop might cost something in that range on potential but competition might not be so stiff.
2) Backup point - I like the idea of trying to hold on to Eddie House while letting Cassell either give it one last shot with another team or segue into coaching. I still like him, but I don't think he works here.
But I still want another guy who can handle the ball and play D off the bench. I have four real targets in my mind - Keyon Dooling, Anthony Carter, Darrell Armstrong and Lindsey Hunter, in that order.
Dooling first. He's a great defensive point guard and is relatively big and young. He's 28, 6'3", and his points-saved per 40 minutes last year was 7.98, remarkable especially considering how bad the Magic's defense is overall. For the record, despite being a backup who played only about 18.5 minutes a night, Hollinger put him as his All-Defensive Second Team point guard (behind only Rondo). He's a good midrange shooter, too. Problems - he doesn't shoot the 3 and he turns the ball over a decent amount. On the flip side, he doesn't force 3s knowing he can't hit them with any consistency. All that said, I think Orlando finds a way to keep him.
The remaining three are old, yes, and none of them can really shoot, but all three have important things that we need - all play aggressive defense, all of them hustle (since they're not in the league for skill), and all of them have low turnover rates.
As for the others, Carter is a little younger (33 v. 40 for Armstrong and 37-38 in Dec.-for Hunter), he shoots a bit better (.458 from the field, .349 from 3 point land), and he's got pretty good size. He's 6'2", 195, and started alongside Allen Iverson for the 50-win Nuggets, meaning he's used to defending the bigger guards and it's conceivable you could play Carter with House for some stretches. He's not a good shooter, but he doesn't force shots and is selective. He's played pretty well alongside stars like AI and Melo so I think he'd play well with guys like KG, Pierce and Ray. He has the best assist to turnover ratio of the 4 guys mentioned at 3.13.
And I just like him and his story. He dropped out of high school and started just playing street ball in Atlanta until someone convinced him to try JUCO. He transferred to Hawaii, but shoulder injuries caused him to go undrafted and he ended up in the CBA. But he scrapped on, and got picked up by a bunch of different teams before earning the starting point guard role in Denver. When AI says a guy "plays with his heart," I want that guy on my team. Whether Denver tries to keep him is entirely uncertain, but for a couple mil, he'd probably come.
Of course, Armstrong has that going for him too. Doc has said that the intensity KG brings is second among all players he's ever coached, behind only Armstrong. So he brings heart and energy, plus he's close with Doc With his age, he might be available for the veteran's minimum. Still, he is 40, and is just going to get slower and slower. He already brings no offense (.364 shooting, only a 1.78 Assist to Turnover ratio) so if his energy and speed slow down, he won't give you much on defense, either. Still, if Posey ends up with our full MLE, we might have to go with guys who will sign for the veteran's minimum, like Armstrong.
Hunter is last to me - I like his defense and his size, and I think he might be expendable in Detroit, but he shoots way too much for a horrible shooter. Carter and Armstrong aren't shooters, either, but they don't green light it the way Hunter does. His defense is clearly still there, though, and with his size, he might be able to play next to House as well in some situations.
3) Additional wing player - If we are willing to give Tony his qualifying offer ($2.7 mil), I don't think anybody will go after him too hard. I'd like to keep him. I think he's a valuable additional guy to have. I only think he's worth about $2 mil a year, but I'd pay up to about $4 mil (short term) to keep him and see how he progresses a year after surgery. He did, after all, blow up a year after his first surgery, after being subpar immediately after his return. If we could get Dooling, I'm not sure Tony is necessary, but I don't expect Dooling to be available.
My guess is if Posey exercises the option, we can spend $7 mil. My choices on allocating that money, in this order:
1. House
2. Dooling - think he'll go elsewhere
3. K Thomas - think he'll go elsewhere
4. T Allen
5. A Carter
6. Ratliff
7. Diop
8. O'Bryant
9. Armstrong
I think we could get House for <$3 mil, T Allen for $2.7 (won't count against exception money), Carter for <$3 mil, and Ratliff and Pollard for the vet minimum (does Theo want more than a chance at a ring?). We'd still have plenty left over to sign any second round picks and have some cash stashed for midseason. We wouldn't have roster space, though.
Those moves would give us Rondo, Ray, Carter, House, T Allen and Pruitt at guard; Pierce, KG, Posey, Powe, Davis and Scalabrine at forward; and Perkins, Ratliff and Pollard at center. 15. No room for any rookies (I think we have 3 picks - our first and second, and Portland's second). Maybe we can get enough from Pruitt and a pick to obviate the need for a guy like Carter. Maybe we can get Dooling and let TA go, letting Dooling fill the Cassell and Tony Allen roles. Maybe we don't keep Pollard (though if we're going with a guy like Ratliff, it makes sense to have two guys, even if neither can hit that 12 footer consistently like PJ) and focus more on a younger backup for Perk in the draft or free agency (like O'Bryant or Diop).
If we have to spend most of our MLE on Posey, then we have more concern. I'd still consider keeping House with the LLE, if possible, and we'd have to go with all veteran's minimum guys - ideally, something like Armstrong, Ratliff and Pollard. No telling whether we could pull that off, though.
The Powe-Davis thing will come to a head next year when both contracts expire. Difference is, we can pay Powe without affecting our exceptions - Davis would have to sign for about $1.3 million a year for 2 years or else his salary would come off our MLE/LLE because we'll only have early Bird rights (175%) while we'd have full Bird rights for Powe. And as has been said, they duplicate each other in a lot of areas. I like both a lot, but there can only be one. And if we can unload Scalabrine in the process, all the better, clearing out two roster spaces and bringing back one legit player, preferably a center.
Topic: Boston and LA: Offseason Moves (Read 22110 times)