If the Lakers lose the series, especially in 5 or 6, Kobe ruined any chance to win Finals MVP with last night's performance. He was not very good last night, and not very good in Game 1. He was good in Game 2 and excellent in Game 3. 1 outstanding performance in a win, 1 good performance in a loss, and 2 not-very-good performances in losses does not make an MVP for a losing team. The Lakers have to at least push it to 7, and Kobe has to be far and away the best player on the court in all remaining games, for Kobe to have a sliver of hope at winning Finals MVP. Even then, I think the Lakers have to win the series.
For the Celtics, I have a really hard time figuring it out. All 3 of our All Stars deserve serious mention.
1. Paul is in the drivers's seat for a variety of reasons.
a. He has 76 points on 53 field goal attempts so far in this series. That's some good efficiency.
b. He had excellent games in all 3 wins, and when he submitted a bad performance, we lost. That indicates a strong "value" to our team. As he goes, so goes the team.
c. He's the best overall scorer on the team (even though Allen has scored more in the series), and that's always a huge factor in Finals voting, like with Parker over Duncan last year.
d. He's been the key focal point for the media among Celtics from the start of the series and has delivered the goods.
e. He's our second best all-around player, and with our best all-around player having a very poor offensive series, the easiest thing is to look to the second best player. That's Pierce, and he's doing plenty to stay at the top of the list.
f. Our team is built on defense and he played outstanding defense on maybe the best offensive player in the league at the most crucial point in the series - the second half of Game 4.
g. He is responsible for two of the signature moments of the series - returning in Game 1 to drop 2 3s in a minute late in the 3rd quarter to take the lead for good; and blocking Kobe's jumper last night in what could be the defining defensive stop of a defensive win. It wasn't a huge situation - middle of the 3rd quarter down 15, but it's a play we will see a lot of it because it defines the series - the Celtics D stopping Kobe and Pierce making a huge play.
h. He has made huge free throws and plays in the clutch in Games 1, 2 and 4.
2. I personally choose Ray so far, and I'll talk about him in correlation with the Pierce notes.
a. Ray has 80 points on 48 field goal attempts in this series. That is truly remarkable efficiency. That's 1.667 points for every shot Ray Allen takes. He's shooting 52% from the field, 48% from 3 point land, and "only" 82% from the line, all better than Pierce's 1.433 points per shot, and 45%, 47% and 81% shooting. Advantage Ray (1-0).
b. Ray has played well in all 4 games. Pierce was the story in Game 1, but Ray contributed 19 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists. In Game 2 he dropped 17 points and played GREAT defense on Kobe, especially early on. We almost pulled off Game 3 solely because Ray Allen carried us with 25 points (on 13 FGAs). And in Game 4, he was similarly spectactular, with 19 points (on 11 FGAs), 9 rebounds and 3 steals while turning the ball over only once and making huge plays in the clutch. For consistency, advantage Ray (2-0), but because the series has showcased Pierce's importance to the team, he gets a point too (2-1).
c. While Pierce might be the best overall scorer on the team, Ray has been on the whole our best scorer in the Finals. He's averaging 1 more point per game than Pierce while taking 1 fewer shot per game. He's scoring on outside shooting, offensive rebounds (7 ORs in 4 games), and drives to the basket. And in the first 2 games, he was the one being defended by Kobe Bryant. Advantage Ray (3-1).
d. While Pierce has been the focal point for the media, Ray is going above and beyond the expectations of the media and fans. The media wrote him off as just a contributor and a shadow of his former self based on the Cleveland series, but he showed why he's a perennial All Star and known as the best pure shooter in the NBA. Whatever he lost in the Cleveland series, he has back. Still, advantage Pierce (3-2).
e. The national perception here really hurts Ray a lot but it's essentially true - Ray has been a good player, but Pierce has clearly been better and more valuable to the Celtics throughout the season. Advantage Pierce (3-3).
f. Ray is not known for defense but has been outstanding in this series. I'm not sure, but I think if you look at the numbers on the whole, he's probably defended Kobe more than anybody else in this series and has done a darn good job of it, particularly in Game 1 and the start of Game 2. Push (3-3).
g. Ray was responsible for two signature moments of his own last night in the most important game of the series. One was a ridiculously pretty baseline drive into a beautiful reverse layup with perfect English on it. That drive was set up by his big steal (when LA had a chance to take back the lead after Eddie House gave it to us for the first time in the game) and then his enormous and under-mentioned (so far) offensive rebound on Pierce's missed 3 on the ensuing possession. The other was when he killed 20 seconds of clock in the final minute, then waved off KG's pick (saving us from a potential moving screen call or a plethora of Lakers' whining about officials) and abused Sasha, taking it to the glass himself to make it a 5 point game with 16 seconds left. It was the final and maybe most important possession and Ray Allen made the play on his own. Push (can't discount Pierce's plays, as great as Ray's were) (3-3).
h. Ray's performance on our most crucial possession last night showcases that he's there for us in the clutch too. Still, for all Pierce's plays in Game 1, the 2 free throws to clinch Game 2, and his plays on both ends last night, I have to say advantage Paul (4-3 Paul).
So that's how I have those two. It's a 4-3 lead for Pierce overall, but to me, two of those advantages for Pierce are based on media perception and spin, which I don't care about. I would vote for Ray, but Pierce's advantages over Ray in those categories are much bigger than Ray's advantages over Pierce (Pierce has been almost as effective and efficient as Ray but Ray comes nowhere close on media attention). For that reason, Pierce has the hot line on the Finals MVP, if we close out in 5 or 6, though I would probably lean toward Ray right now over Paul.
3. I want to say some words about KG. The fact is, the reason KG was third in regular season MVP balloting is not offense. It's the defense and the change in team culture he brought to Boston. Those are the very things that are winning this series for us.
While it is obviously essential, this team is not great because of Ray Allen and Paul Pierce being efficient and effective scorers. I mean, looking at the numbers objectively, they're averaging a rather underwhelming 20 and 19 points per game, respectively, in the Finals (albeit on great percentages).
What is overwhelming? 15, 19, 17, 15, and 18. Those are the total points scored by the Lakers, the best offense in the NBA playoffs, in the 4th quarter of Game 1 (when we cemented a huge opening win), the 3rd quarter of Game 2 (when we blew open the game to take a huge series advantage), the 3rd quarter of Game 3 (when we took the lead in a game we had no business even being in based on our offense), the 3rd quarter of Game 4 (when we cut an 18 point halftime deficit to 2), and the 4th quarter of Game 4 (when we cemented the amazing comeback with a team and Finals-defining win). It's our defense that has given us a 3-1 advantage in the Finals, and that defense is anchored, led and inspired by Kevin Garnett.
He may only be averaging 17.5 points in the Finals while shooting a horrid 38.2% from the field, but he's grabbing 12.5 rebounds per game (including 3 offensive boards a night), 3.5 assists, 1.25 blocks and 1.25 steals while rendering Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom essentially non-factors when it counts.
And maybe these are not "overwhelming" numbers, but how about 13, 14, 20, and 32? Those are the points scored in the four Finals games by the combination of Eddie House, James Posey, Sam Cassell and PJ Brown, 4 of the 7 members of the best bench in the NBA (a bench that has been critical to victories at least in Games 2 and 4) and 4 guys who would not be in Boston if not for Kevin Garnett.
That doesn't even speak to the change in team culture that was brought about by KG and that gave the Celtics the mental toughness to take Games 1 and 2 at home when everybody expected the Lakers to win at least 1, to hang tight in Game 3 when we should have been blown out by 25, and to claw our way back last night (the greatest Celtics win in the past 20 years) from a deficit that was 21 after 12 minutes, 24 after 18 minutes, 18 after 24 minutes, and 20 after 30 minutes. Without KG changing the entire team culture (and credit to Doc, too), this team does not complete that comeback. Whether he's contributing offense or not, he is the leader of this team.
His poor offensive stats and frequent unwillingness to take it to the basket has knocked him to third place in the MVP talk, but to be perfectly honest, if he has a solid offensive game and we close out based on our defense, I'd have a hard time not voting him Finals MVP. But he has to do that still, and until he is clearly the best player on the court in a win, he's behind Paul and Ray.
So I'll stick with Ray for right now. The fact is, we pretty much knew what KG and Paul Pierce would give us. KG has given us even better D than expected, but less offense than expected, while Pierce has probably given us a little more than expected overall, but submitted a Game 3 stinker. The guy who has given us much more than we expected in all facets of his game - defense, rebounding, shooting, taking it to the basket - is Ray Allen. I think his additional contributions is what puts us over the top and why, as of right now, I'd vote him MVP.
Keep in mind, my Celtics and Pierce loyalty over the past decade makes me really really really want Pierce to be Finals MVP. I think he will be anyway, I just want to fully agree with it based on passion, loyalty AND objectivity. And that's why I hope Pierce has a huge game to close out the series for us, so that I can say I vote him for MVP and know it's a completely impartial vote (not that my vote means anything).
I personally think that will happen. Game 5 will be the time for Paul Pierce to cement his league and Celtics legacy with a performance that will confirm he is a Celtics champion and the rightful Finals MVP in a year when the league expected Kobe and the Lakers to claim that hardware. I am so freaking giddy right now.
