steve,
That's probably how it will play out. If you take away the effects of the Triangle offense and just look at the players, the combo of Perkins and PJ should be able to make Gasol have to work hard for his points. Let's see just how effective the triangle is in getting easy shots for Gasol.
I don't believe we can defend Kobe any better than Bruce Bowen did. So look for Kobe's numbers to increase and his intangibles to have more of a positive effect on his team. Paul has his work cut out for him. He has to play his offense, get his baskets, but he also has to stay with Kobe. The good part is that he has a good defensive guy in Posey to back him up. Frankly, I'm not sure if Kobe has a competent defender backing him up, other than Vujacic. Maybe Vujacic will have the honor of guarding Paul?
The Ray Allen vs. Radmanovic match up is an interesting one. Both can hit from the outside, with Ray being better at it. Rad has a big height advantage. And he's probably just as quick as Ray Allen. Ray is the better, more experienced player though. If I were the Lakers, I would have Rad take Ray to the basket and post him up, like they did against Ginobili during game 1 versus SA. That worked well for Rad. Can Ray Allen shoot over a long, 6'10" defender? Ray's offense is more valuable to the Celtics than Rad's offense is to the Lakers.
Fisher will win his match up with Rondo. He's a very smart veteran who makes very few mistakes. And he can shoot from the outside. Rondo will play good defense, but he'll also make some bone-headed mistakes during the series. The Celtics will have to live with that.
Odom and Garnett. I give the edge to KG. I don't think there's anything that Odom can do that Garnett cannot. Odom is a little bit quicker. But see, the Lakers will win if Odom plays Garnett to a stale mate. The pressure is on KG to score.