Doc Rivers

[Chris]

Chris -- how can you say you don't care what the stats say?  I find that fascinating.  What is your philosophy for how to evaluate who should play?  Doesn't the data help you determine the best matchups?

It seems to me that the huge edge the data gives to Powe suggests that he should have gotten the benefit of the doubt, rather than Davis, when it came to who to pull and who to give playing time.

Additionally, why didn't Davis play himself out of minutes based on his performance Games 2-4?

Finally, the reason 10 minutes or so a game from the Davis/Powe combo is likely going to be necessary is that Perkins is too foul prone and PJ Brown simply can't play any more minutes than he already is (presuming you think we should maximize his minutes).

Because the only stats that matter as far as my argument is concerned are stats against Detroit in the playoffs.  Again, we will just have to agree to disagree. 

I see Powe as someone who has trouble with rotations (I have been saying this all year long, and Doc even said that was the reason he was benched last week), where Davis is slightly better.  In this series, it is all about defensive rotations at that position.

So unless you are going to give me stats about who is rotating correctly, and who isn't, then we don't have an argument here.

[Who]

-- how can you say you don't care what the stats say?  I find that fascinating.  What is your philosophy for how to evaluate who should play?  Doesn't the data help you determine the best matchups?

When they develop a statistic that captures the entirety of the game of basketball we'll use that. Until then Stats are nothing more than tidbits of information that are regularly flawed.

They're flawed when they say Allen Iverson's 27 and 7 makes him the most important player for Denver. They fail to account for his ball dominating ways. They fail to account for his consistent refusal to pass the ball without an opportunity to get an assist. They fail to account for that contested fadeaway he took instead of hitting the open shooter.

They're flawed when they say Marcus Camby is the best defender in the league because of his 13 rebounds and 3.6 blocks a night. They fail to say he's the fourth best post defender behind Najera, Nene, Kenyon. That he regularly gets pushed around down low. That he rarely defends the opposing team's best big man because he's a thoroughly mediocre man-to-man defender. They fail to count the layups he gives up by over-gambling when looking for blocks. They fail to account for his failed defensive rotations where he stays back and looks for a block on a layup instead of closing off the lane earlier. They fail to say that despite being a regular in the league's top 10 rebounders his teams consistently under-perform on the backboards because he doesn't box out and gives up too many boards.

Are they flawed for Powe in some ways? Sure. He gets 4.2 boards in 14.5 minutes. That's a truly great clip. But they fail to say the team's defensive rebounding is at it's worst when he's on the floor. The team as a whole gets more defensive boards when KG is on, when Perk is on, and when BBD is on. BBD doesn't grab many boards, how can this be? Because he clears out space in the paint and denies the opposition space to rebound.

Reminds me of the Nets. Over the past couple of years every analyst bemoans the Nets big men's inability to rebound the basketball. Jason Kidd led them in rebounds for the past three and half seasons. That players like Jason Collins were terrible rebounds because he pulled down only 2.4 boards in 16 minutes or 4 boards in 24 minutes. They fail to recognize the Nets are regular amongst the league leaders for fewest offensive rebounds conceded. They fail to recognize that all of their big men do a terrific job of keeping the opposition of the backboards. They fail to recognize that the Nets' gameplan since Kidd arrived has been for the bigs to box out and allow Jason to run down the middle of the lane, then catch the rebound in order to start their fastbreak quicker because now the ball is in their point guard's hands quicker.

They fail to account that BBD does a better job of moving the basketball.  They also don't count BBD's better rotations and better man-to-man defense very well. Team defensive possessions is alright and does give some semblence of the picture but not a total look.

Or there things that Powe does that aren't accounted well? Sure but not many. He's an odd player in that very little of his actions aren't counted for. The best example is his movement off the ball. Powe is better than every other big man on this team of recognizing where the space is, where to cut, how to create a passing lane for his guards, how to get an open lane to the rim. His movement without the basketball is excellent.

Then you have teams like Denver who were top of the league in combined blocks/steals this season yet they're a weak defensive team becuase they give up easy shots from all their gambling and so their opponents shoot a higher FG percentage than you'd expect.

There's so many other areas like high assist players who don't truly involve their teammates (Stephon Marbury). High assist players who don't actually create anything because none of their passes were risky and they didn't create the space for the basket by penetration (Rondo at times, Earl Watson, Jason Terry, Billups). Guys who get high steals but regularly don't contest their opponents shot tough enough (Chris Paul). Guys who move the ball superbly but don't get assists (Oberto). So many other things too.

My rambling point ...... I don't like stats only discussions. There's so much of the game that gets ignored when we talk solely about stats. I trust my eyes more than the stats and that's how I evaluate players.

For the record I think Powe should play. The supporting cast is struggling to score and the Big Three need someone to step up and get a couple of buckets to help space the floor for them. There's no real offense out there when Rondo is off his game. Getting another offensive option on the floor should be a priority, it'll help snap the offense back in shape.

[Chris]

Thank you Who, that was very well said.

I think I am still on a bit of a island about Powe right now, but I am glad someone else understands that there is more to analyzing things than looking at a box score.

And let me just say, I wouldn't be surprised if Powe came in later in the series and made a big impact (I think timing will be everything, to catch the Pistons sleeping)...but I just can't fault Doc for the logic here, considering the two players skillsets, and Powes play in game 1 and 2.

[Roy Hobbs]

So unless you are going to give me stats about who is rotating correctly, and who isn't, then we don't have an argument here.

I can't say BBD is a net positive out there.

In the three games he has played this series, BBD is -9, +1, -6.  Powe doesn't have sufficient non-garbage time minutes to amount to anything, although in the limited minutes he's played, he's got a negative +/- as well.

Also, is it such a given that P.J. is our best big man?  He's -2, -8, -5, -1 in the four games this series.  I blame that mostly on Doc for the role he's being used in (it's inevitable Detroit will outscore us when they're playing starters and we have four bench players), but it's not so clear cut that P.J. is our best bench big man.

[Roy Hobbs]

-- how can you say you don't care what the stats say?  I find that fascinating.  What is your philosophy for how to evaluate who should play?  Doesn't the data help you determine the best matchups?

When they develop a statistic that captures the entirety of the game of basketball we'll use that. Until then Stats are nothing more than tidbits of information that are regularly flawed.

They're flawed when they say Allen Iverson's 27 and 7 makes him the most important player for Denver. They fail to account for his ball dominating ways. They fail to account for his consistent refusal to pass the ball without an opportunity to get an assist. They fail to account for that contested fadeaway he took instead of hitting the open shooter.

They're flawed when they say Marcus Camby is the best defender in the league because of his 13 rebounds and 3.6 blocks a night. They fail to say he's the fourth best post defender behind Najera, Nene, Kenyon. That he regularly gets pushed around down low. That he rarely defends the opposing team's best big man because he's a thoroughly mediocre man-to-man defender. They fail to count the layups he gives up by over-gambling when looking for blocks. They fail to account for his failed defensive rotations where he stays back and looks for a block on a layup instead of closing off the lane earlier. They fail to say that despite being a regular in the league's top 10 rebounders his teams consistently under-perform on the backboards because he doesn't box out and gives up too many boards.

Are they flawed for Powe in some ways? Sure. He gets 4.2 boards in 14.5 minutes. That's a truly great clip. But they fail to say the team's defensive rebounding is at it's worst when he's on the floor. The team as a whole gets more defensive boards when KG is on, when Perk is on, and when BBD is on. BBD doesn't grab many boards, how can this be? Because he clears out space in the paint and denies the opposition space to rebound.

Reminds me of the Nets. Over the past couple of years every analyst bemoans the Nets big men's inability to rebound the basketball. Jason Kidd led them in rebounds for the past three and half seasons. That players like Jason Collins were terrible rebounds because he pulled down only 2.4 boards in 16 minutes or 4 boards in 24 minutes. They fail to recognize the Nets are regular amongst the league leaders for fewest offensive rebounds conceded. They fail to recognize that all of their big men do a terrific job of keeping the opposition of the backboards. They fail to recognize that the Nets' gameplan since Kidd arrived has been for the bigs to box out and allow Jason to run down the middle of the lane, then catch the rebound in order to start their fastbreak quicker because now the ball is in their point guard's hands quicker.

They fail to account that BBD does a better job of moving the basketball.  They also don't count BBD's better rotations and better man-to-man defense very well. Team defensive possessions is alright and does give some semblence of the picture but not a total look.

Or there things that Powe does that aren't accounted well? Sure but not many. He's an odd player in that very little of his actions aren't counted for. The best example is his movement off the ball. Powe is better than every other big man on this team of recognizing where the space is, where to cut, how to create a passing lane for his guards, how to get an open lane to the rim. His movement without the basketball is excellent.

Then you have teams like Denver who were top of the league in combined blocks/steals this season yet they're a weak defensive team becuase they give up easy shots from all their gambling and so their opponents shoot a higher FG percentage than you'd expect.

There's so many other areas like high assist players who don't truly involve their teammates (Stephon Marbury). High assist players who don't actually create anything because none of their passes were risky and they didn't create the space for the basket by penetration (Rondo at times, Earl Watson, Jason Terry, Billups). Guys who get high steals but regularly don't contest their opponents shot tough enough (Chris Paul). Guys who move the ball superbly but don't get assists (Oberto). So many other things too.

My rambling point ...... I don't like stats only discussions. There's so much of the game that gets ignored when we talk solely about stats. I trust my eyes more than the stats and that's how I evaluate players.

For the record I think Powe should play. The supporting cast is struggling to score and the Big Three need someone to step up and get a couple of buckets to help space the floor for them. There's no real offense out there when Rondo is off his game. Getting another offensive option on the floor should be a priority, it'll help snap the offense back in shape.

Powe has better individual statistics.

The team has better offensive and defensive numbers when Powe is on the court, and better overall rebounding numbers, as well.

Another stat:  when BBD gets 10+ minutes in the playoffs, this team is 2-3.  When Powe gets at least 7 minutes, the team is 8-3.  They're 2-5 when Powe gets 6 or less minutes.

Maybe statistics don't tell the whole story, but if BBD is having a positive impact (especially a more positive impact than Powe), I have yet to see it manifest itself *anywhere*.

[Scintan]

They're flawed when they say Allen Iverson's 27 and 7 makes him the most important player for Denver. They fail to account for his ball dominating ways. They fail to account for his consistent refusal to pass the ball without an opportunity to get an assist. They fail to account for that contested fadeaway he took instead of hitting the open shooter.

Iverson has the best Roland rating on his team.  He also has the best production, the best +/-, and the best foul differential, among other statistics you missed.  He also had better PER differentials than Anthony. It's pretty clear that, both statistically and visually, Iverson was the main player on that Denver team, no matter what a person's feelings about him might be.  There's a difference between viewing statistics and seeing something different on the floor, and bringing a bias to the table.  The statistics aren't flawed, they're merely incomplete.  All sports statistics, and most statistics in general, are incomplete: it's the very nature of statistics.  They are good for general analysis and for buttressing arguments, even if they aren't the end all and be all that one might wish them to be.

[Who]

They're flawed when they say Allen Iverson's 27 and 7 makes him the most important player for Denver. They fail to account for his ball dominating ways. They fail to account for his consistent refusal to pass the ball without an opportunity to get an assist. They fail to account for that contested fadeaway he took instead of hitting the open shooter.

Iverson has the best Roland rating on his team.  He also has the best production, the best +/-, and the best foul differential, among other statistics you missed.  He also had better PER differentials than Anthony. It's pretty clear that, both statistically and visually, Iverson was the main player on that Denver team, no matter what a person's feelings about him might be.  There's a difference between viewing statistics and seeing something different on the floor, and bringing a bias to the table.  The statistics aren't flawed, they're merely incomplete.  All sports statistics, and most statistics in general, are incomplete: it's the very nature of statistics.  They are good for general analysis and for buttressing arguments, even if they aren't the end all and be all that one might wish them to be.

I thought someone would run with that. I was going to go with Marbury to avoid this but he hasn't been at that all-star recognition for a while now, so rolled with Iverson.

Iverson creates almost as many problems as he solves (kind of like Ben Gordon with Chicago). He's not an elite player.

But I do agree with the rest of your point.

[Chris]

So unless you are going to give me stats about who is rotating correctly, and who isn't, then we don't have an argument here.

I can't say BBD is a net positive out there.

In the three games he has played this series, BBD is -9, +1, -6.  Powe doesn't have sufficient non-garbage time minutes to amount to anything, although in the limited minutes he's played, he's got a negative +/- as well.

Also, is it such a given that P.J. is our best big man?  He's -2, -8, -5, -1 in the four games this series.  I blame that mostly on Doc for the role he's being used in (it's inevitable Detroit will outscore us when they're playing starters and we have four bench players), but it's not so clear cut that P.J. is our best bench big man.

I don't know where you are getting the +/- numbers for this series (I couldn't find them), but I bet if you looked at all of the bench players you will see the same thing.  The bench has sucked this series, except for in game 3 (and they weren't great in that game either).

This is the problem with +/- stats.

Another stat:  when BBD gets 10+ minutes in the playoffs, this team is 2-3.  When Powe gets at least 7 minutes, the team is 8-3.  They're 2-5 when Powe gets 6 or less minutes.

You are smart enough to know the problem with this stat.  Look at the games the C's lost when Davis was in there.  The three losses were also the three of the ugliest games played by the C's overall IMO (Game 3 against Atlanta, Game 6 against Cleveland, and last night).  I hardly blame Davis for those losses. 

[Roy Hobbs]

The thing is, Davis' supposed contributions aren't showing up *anywhere*.  He missed his share of rotations last night, as well, and the team got abused by Detroit's big men when BBD was attempting to cover them. 

I can't guarantee Powe will do much better, but he's at least worth a shot, because BBD has been downright ineffective, as he has been for about 75% of the games this season.

[Who]

Another stat:  when BBD gets 10+ minutes in the playoffs, this team is 2-3.  When Powe gets at least 7 minutes, the team is 8-3.  They're 2-5 when Powe gets 6 or less minutes.

There's a big difference between how they gain their minutes. Powe plays bigger minutes when he plays well. Davis plays bigger minutes when Powe doesn't play well. Not because of Davis great form/performances, only because he's the last ditch option.

It's same with several of Cassell's minutes and Rondo's play. A lot of Sammy's extra minutes came when from Rondo's inconsistency.

As for the stat, the play of either one of them hardly ever decides the result. It's like the Ray Allen stat where the team has a better record in the postseason when he shoots badly.

Maybe statistics don't tell the whole story, but if BBD is having a positive impact (especially a more positive impact than Powe), I have yet to see it manifest itself *anywhere*.

I might be mis-understanding you here but I've seen you say the same thing in a few other posts. I think you're expecting too much out of the bench players if you expect them to have net positives game in game out. How many bench players have that in the playoffs? I'd say a fairly low percentage.

Powe has better individual statistics.

The team has better offensive and defensive numbers when Powe is on the court, and better overall rebounding numbers, as well.

I haven't seen the numbers for the postseason but for the regular season the team rebounding numbers are best when KG is on the floor, then Perk, then BBD, then Powe. Defensive rebounding percentages were 73.1% for KG, 72.9% for Perk, 71.2% for BBD, 69.6% for Powe. The offensive rebounding were both higher from the bench than starters (27.8% and 28% respectively), with Powe going 32.8% and BBD 31.4%. BBD is the better defensive rebounder, Powe the better offensive rebound, BBD has a slight edge overall.
Also Powe's better numbers in the playoffs are helped heavily by the Atlanta Hawks. His numbers were racked up against a poor ball club who were awful on the road all season and through the playoffs. Powe got most of his minutes milking a weak opposition and in blowouts in several cases.

BBD's minutes have been against superior teams in Cleveland and Detroit.

Powe's production has been down by a sizeable enough margin which is putting more pressure on his weak points. He was going for 7.9 and 4.2 in 14.5 minutes during the season on 57% shooting. He's now going for 4.7, 2.6 on 48% shooting. It was a much bigger gap between the two before Powe's production started to slip. Steady defensive play grew in importance and that's why BBD has gotten a look in.

Oh Roy, I agree with you that Powe should be the one playing. He brings more to the table. I don't think it's quite as distant as some of the statistics mentioned above suggest it to be .... but I do think there's daylight between the two and Powe should play.

[Chris]

The thing is, Davis' supposed contributions aren't showing up *anywhere*.  He missed his share of rotations last night, as well, and the team got abused by Detroit's big men when BBD was attempting to cover them. 

I can't guarantee Powe will do much better, but he's at least worth a shot, because BBD has been downright ineffective, as he has been for about 75% of the games this season.

I am confident he will get another shot.  But I don't think Doc made a mistake to give Davis his chance. 

I disagree that Davis has been missing many rotations.  He was generally in the right place the last game, they were just hitting their shots over him (as well as over everyone else). 

I see nothing wrong with giving both guys chances.  So far neither of them have looked great in the series (or in the playoffs in general, despite the numbers).

Heres how I think it has all played out in Doc's mind.  He probably felt Davis was the best matchup from the beginning, but felt Powe had earned his chance to try.  That is why Powe was given game 1 and the beginning of game 2.  When Powe did not play well, Doc decided to give Davis a try.  He has stuck with him a little longer, because theoretically he should be a better matchup.  But if he continues to not produce, Powe will get another chance.

Its the exact same thing as happened with the PG's.  Cassell is the better matchup on player, but House earned the job.  When House didn't perform, it went to Cassell.  If Cassell doesn't perform again, I expect House to be back.

I just find it hard to really fault Doc though, when he has tried everyone in this series, and none of them are taking advantage of their opportunities.

[Who]

Heres how I think it has all played out in Doc's mind.  He probably felt Davis was the best matchup from the beginning, but felt Powe had earned his chance to try.

Yep I think Doc was thinking along those lines too.

Davis was the best of the two against both Cleveland and Detroit. Powe didn't play much against either side (practically no minutes against Det) so that favoured Davis from the off, but I have to believe Doc has been thinking about those games during both playoff series and it favoured favourably with giving BDD his shot. He knows Davis has some history of success against each side which helped push matters along and for Doc to keep Davis playing.

It wasn't just in the playoffs either, there were a couple of games during the regular season where Doc seemed to go with BBD first when playing the better teams in the league. The main times he didn't and went with Powe first was because of a perimeter big like Dirk. It's long looked like Doc prefers BBD in the big games.

[WedmanIsMyHero]

The only relevant stats can't be stats against Detroit, as you argued in a previous post, because in that case you wouldn't play Brown at all since he had 0's across the board in the regular season against Detroit.  As did Powe, basically, since he did not get meaningful minutes in any of the games against Detroit.

I am not saying stats are the be-all-end-all.  My point is that when a discussion enters a "he said, she said" type phase, stats are a good way to arbitrate.

OR even if they are not a good way to arbitrate, they at least suggest where the burden of rejoinder should lie.

But presume we agree to disagree. . .

You say that you would not be surprised to see Powe come in and make a big impact late in the series and the key is timing, etc.  However, the way you have set up your argument, if Powe doesn't come in you are right and if Powe does come in you are right.

Here is another way to frame it -- is there any decision-making pattern that would lead you to believe Doc is not making the correct decisions?  Or would all Doc decisions in this particular area (relative minutes for Brown, Davis, Powe, and to some extent Perkins) be correct?

I was just confused based on your statement.  I think you have to be able to lay out a coherent theory of when a decision would make sense and when it wouldn't that is falsifiable, i.e. not just "do what works", since you could justify that with post facto type logic.

Basically, I am not sure if you just don't think Powe should get minutes or if you think Doc makes great decisions in general.  So I am interested in the conditions in which you would think Doc is performing well v. poorly.  What's the story?

Thank you Who, that was very well said.

I think I am still on a bit of a island about Powe right now, but I am glad someone else understands that there is more to analyzing things than looking at a box score.

And let me just say, I wouldn't be surprised if Powe came in later in the series and made a big impact (I think timing will be everything, to catch the Pistons sleeping)...but I just can't fault Doc for the logic here, considering the two players skillsets, and Powes play in game 1 and 2.

[vinnie]

But if BBD doesn't play, Detroit will suffer in the shot blocking category.  I do not think I have seen a forward in the NBA get his shot blocked as many times as has happened to Davis in this series.   

[WedmanIsMyHero]

That's a *great* point.  I think you are accurately describing the way Doc has thought about this.  The question is whether we think he is right or not (obviously he is the pro, etc., etc., but the whole point of this is to "discuss" these issues). . .

Heres how I think it has all played out in Doc's mind.  He probably felt Davis was the best matchup from the beginning, but felt Powe had earned his chance to try.

Yep I think Doc was thinking along those lines too.

Davis was the best of the two against both Cleveland and Detroit. Powe didn't play much against either side (practically no minutes against Det) so that favoured Davis from the off, but I have to believe Doc has been thinking about those games during both playoff series and it favoured favourably with giving BDD his shot. He knows Davis has some history of success against each side which helped push matters along and for Doc to keep Davis playing.

It wasn't just in the playoffs either, there were a couple of games during the regular season where Doc seemed to go with BBD first when playing the better teams in the league. The main times he didn't and went with Powe first was because of a perimeter big like Dirk. It's long looked like Doc prefers BBD in the big games.