While I would be rooting for the Celtics, you have to think the Lakers would be favorites.
1. The Lakers have the best player: Like against Cleveland, the Celtics will not have the best player on the court. Kobe has turned his game up another notch in the playoffs. While maybe in one game, like in Game 7 versus the Cavs, Pierce could step up, in any given game the Celtics would face a disadvantage in a close game in the fourth quarter.
2. The Lakers have the best coach: This isn't even close. This matters for things like end-of-quarter situations, end-of-game situations, dealing with when the other team goes on a run, etc.
3. The Lakers are the most efficient offensive team in the playoffs while the Celtics are the most efficient defensive team, according to John Hollinger (
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats?sort=offeff&seasonType=3&league=nba).
However, the Lakers defense is slightly better, in a relative sense, than the Celtics offense. And while the Celtics have a better rebounding rate, the Lakers have a better turnover rate.
On the Lakers defense, see the following article:
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/81720664. Game 5 in LA. I think the home team, when home court/field advantage is determined on the field by the teams involved (not like MLB with the all-star game), should never face an elimination game when they are trailing. I think if the home team "holds court" they should always be at least even. That's the benefit of having home court advantage. So the NBA finals presents a serious disadvantage for a team like the Celtics which is much better at home than on the road. Being down 3-2 would be a serious challenge.
So while I very much want the Celtics to win, there is a pretty good reason the Lakers would be favored. . .
The Pistons & Spurs are both injured, e.g. Manu & Chauncy. Those injuries make it very unlikely for either team to win.
I think the Celtics have a slightly better chance than LA in a head to head match up. The reason is that the Celtics play better defense, whereas the Lakers only play D for a few spurts a game.
The Lakers are also a terrible rebounding team, even with the "height" that they have.
The Celtics would have to overcome Game 5 being in Los Angeles, but I think they can.
Being in Los Angeles I've seen the Lakers play a lot more than Boston this year, and when both teams are playing their best Boston is much better. The Celtics approached their best in Game 3 in Detroit, and hopefully they'll just build on it for the rest of the Championship run.
To sum up: I can't pick two teams with two of their best players injured, and I can't pick a team that doesn't rebound or play consistent D (even, if they have Kobe). The Celtics have been the best team all season, and now since they are learning how to play in the playoffs, they will continue to be. # 17 is the Celtics for the taking.