2028 Clippers pick watch

[trickybilly]

No. No it's not too early to start this thread.

I'm going to assume that the Clippers are not the worst team in the NBA, but land in the lottery easily.

So, I'd love Marcus Spears Jr.

Thanks.

(Milwaukee second round pick watch can maybe start a little later  )

[Celtics2021]

Give me Nikola Kusturica or Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, but really both of those two plus Spears form a great top 3.  Also, all three will be in college next year despite not being draft eligible until sophomores, so we will get a real chance to watch them the next two years and salivate while we hope for lottery balls and Clipper failure.

[trickybilly]

The draft lottery will be interesting.

Will the C's send a mascot rep for the balls? Or the Clips?

[gift]

Give me Nikola Kusturica or Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, but really both of those two plus Spears form a great top 3.  Also, all three will be in college next year despite not being draft eligible until sophomores, so we will get a real chance to watch them the next two years and salivate while we hope for lottery balls and Clipper failure.

Boumtje Boumtje looks like he could be a seven foot Al Horford.

[No Nickname]

We might want to modify this thread to:

2028 Clippers/Sixers pick watch

People might assume that the Sixers won't be in the lottery, but 18 months from now who knows if:

LeBron has retired (after winning a title?)
Embiid is hobbled and/or traded
31-yr-old Jaylen Brown is clashing with Tyrese Maxey and the chemistry is off

Our pick is the best of Clips/Sixers, so the more ping-pong balls in the lottery the better for us!

[Celtic Fan Forever]

We all need to pray that the clippers 2027 pick ends up outside of the top 5 with these new lottery rules. If they end up top 5 this year and next year we cannot get a top 5 pick in 2028.

[Celtics2021]

We might want to modify this thread to:

2028 Clippers/Sixers pick watch

People might assume that the Sixers won't be in the lottery, but 18 months from now who knows if:

LeBron has retired (after winning a title?)
Embiid is hobbled and/or traded
31-yr-old Jaylen Brown is clashing with Tyrese Maxey and the chemistry is off

Our pick is the best of Clips/Sixers, so the more ping-pong balls in the lottery the better for us!

It is a fair point.  We can only get the Sixers pick if it falls into the top 8 (because it was already promised elsewhere for 9-30), but it is certainly possible.  This is especially true with the new lottery rules, as even most play-in teams receive lotto balls.  Even a team  that loses the 7-8 play-in game has a 27% chance of getting a top-8 pick.  A team that finishes 9th or 10th or has a 46% chance of a top-8 pick.

I know the Sixers look formidable in the postseason, but it is not a team built for the regular season with its age and injury history.  While not the most likely outcome, it certainly increases the probability that the 2028 pick is really valuable, in what looks like a very nice draft at the top.

[Celtics2021]

We all need to pray that the clippers 2027 pick ends up outside of the top 5 with these new lottery rules. If they end up top 5 this year and next year we cannot get a top 5 pick in 2028.

This is incorrect.  We need to hope they do not win #1, because you cannot win consecutive #1 picks, but the top-5 pick they got in June was an Indiana pick, and the consecutive top-5 rule applies to the picks of the original team, and not their final destination.  So if LA gets top-5 in 2027, we would have no restrictions.  If they got top-5 again in 2028, their 2029 pick would have restrictions, even though we would have been the recipient of the top-5 pick on 2028, and not LA.

This year we want as many of Washington, Utah, Memphis, Chicago, and Indiana to again finish in the top-5 as possible, because any of those who do will be blocked from the top 5 in 2028, meaning the odds improve for landing a top 5 pick for all the other teams with lotto balls.

[slamtheking]

We all need to pray that the clippers 2027 pick ends up outside of the top 5 with these new lottery rules. If they end up top 5 this year and next year we cannot get a top 5 pick in 2028.

This is incorrect.  We need to hope they do not win #1, because you cannot win consecutive #1 picks, but the top-5 pick they got in June was an Indiana pick, and the consecutive top-5 rule applies to the picks of the original team, and not their final destination.  So if LA gets top-5 in 2027, we would have no restrictions.  If they got top-5 again in 2028, their 2029 pick would have restrictions, even though we would have been the recipient of the top-5 pick on 2028, and not LA.

This year we want as many of Washington, Utah, Memphis, Chicago, and Indiana to again finish in the top-5 as possible, because any of those who do will be blocked from the top 5 in 2028, meaning the odds improve for landing a top 5 pick for all the other teams with lotto balls.

there's probably a decent chance Memphis and Chicago are back in the top 5 and a fair chance Wash and Utah are as well.  pretty sure Indy will well out of the lottery this year.

[Celtics2021]

We all need to pray that the clippers 2027 pick ends up outside of the top 5 with these new lottery rules. If they end up top 5 this year and next year we cannot get a top 5 pick in 2028.

This is incorrect.  We need to hope they do not win #1, because you cannot win consecutive #1 picks, but the top-5 pick they got in June was an Indiana pick, and the consecutive top-5 rule applies to the picks of the original team, and not their final destination.  So if LA gets top-5 in 2027, we would have no restrictions.  If they got top-5 again in 2028, their 2029 pick would have restrictions, even though we would have been the recipient of the top-5 pick on 2028, and not LA.

This year we want as many of Washington, Utah, Memphis, Chicago, and Indiana to again finish in the top-5 as possible, because any of those who do will be blocked from the top 5 in 2028, meaning the odds improve for landing a top 5 pick for all the other teams with lotto balls.

there's probably a decent chance Memphis and Chicago are back in the top 5 and a fair chance Wash and Utah are as well.  pretty sure Indy will well out of the lottery this year.

The odds are very different than the past (no slot gives more than a 39% chance of finishing top-5 this year), but all the teams with the 4th-10th records have that chance, and it is a fair bet that at least a couple of the aforementioned teams will finish in that range.  And even with Indiana, play-in teams have a shot to finish in the lottery.  As flat as the East looks, not would not surprise if Indy finished anywhere between 1st and 10th.  Even in their conference finals run a couple of seasons ago, they were the 6-seed, tied for 7th and only a game out of 8th, and their finals run started as the 4-seed.  It would not surprise me if they have at least one lottery ball, albeit with a lower chance of getting a top-5 pick.

[slamtheking]

We all need to pray that the clippers 2027 pick ends up outside of the top 5 with these new lottery rules. If they end up top 5 this year and next year we cannot get a top 5 pick in 2028.

This is incorrect.  We need to hope they do not win #1, because you cannot win consecutive #1 picks, but the top-5 pick they got in June was an Indiana pick, and the consecutive top-5 rule applies to the picks of the original team, and not their final destination.  So if LA gets top-5 in 2027, we would have no restrictions.  If they got top-5 again in 2028, their 2029 pick would have restrictions, even though we would have been the recipient of the top-5 pick on 2028, and not LA.

This year we want as many of Washington, Utah, Memphis, Chicago, and Indiana to again finish in the top-5 as possible, because any of those who do will be blocked from the top 5 in 2028, meaning the odds improve for landing a top 5 pick for all the other teams with lotto balls.

there's probably a decent chance Memphis and Chicago are back in the top 5 and a fair chance Wash and Utah are as well.  pretty sure Indy will well out of the lottery this year.

The odds are very different than the past (no slot gives more than a 39% chance of finishing top-5 this year), but all the teams with the 4th-10th records have that chance, and it is a fair bet that at least a couple of the aforementioned teams will finish in that range.  And even with Indiana, play-in teams have a shot to finish in the lottery.  As flat as the East looks, not would not surprise if Indy finished anywhere between 1st and 10th.  Even in their conference finals run a couple of seasons ago, they were the 6-seed, tied for 7th and only a game out of 8th, and their finals run started as the 4-seed.  It would not surprise me if they have at least one lottery ball, albeit with a lower chance of getting a top-5 pick.

I should have been more clear -- I was referring to their records pre-lottery.  Mem and Chi are likely bottom 5 teams and Wash and Utah could be as well.

[Celtics2021]

We all need to pray that the clippers 2027 pick ends up outside of the top 5 with these new lottery rules. If they end up top 5 this year and next year we cannot get a top 5 pick in 2028.

This is incorrect.  We need to hope they do not win #1, because you cannot win consecutive #1 picks, but the top-5 pick they got in June was an Indiana pick, and the consecutive top-5 rule applies to the picks of the original team, and not their final destination.  So if LA gets top-5 in 2027, we would have no restrictions.  If they got top-5 again in 2028, their 2029 pick would have restrictions, even though we would have been the recipient of the top-5 pick on 2028, and not LA.

This year we want as many of Washington, Utah, Memphis, Chicago, and Indiana to again finish in the top-5 as possible, because any of those who do will be blocked from the top 5 in 2028, meaning the odds improve for landing a top 5 pick for all the other teams with lotto balls.

there's probably a decent chance Memphis and Chicago are back in the top 5 and a fair chance Wash and Utah are as well.  pretty sure Indy will well out of the lottery this year.

The odds are very different than the past (no slot gives more than a 39% chance of finishing top-5 this year), but all the teams with the 4th-10th records have that chance, and it is a fair bet that at least a couple of the aforementioned teams will finish in that range.  And even with Indiana, play-in teams have a shot to finish in the lottery.  As flat as the East looks, not would not surprise if Indy finished anywhere between 1st and 10th.  Even in their conference finals run a couple of seasons ago, they were the 6-seed, tied for 7th and only a game out of 8th, and their finals run started as the 4-seed.  It would not surprise me if they have at least one lottery ball, albeit with a lower chance of getting a top-5 pick.

I should have been more clear -- I was referring to their records pre-lottery.  Mem and Chi are likely bottom 5 teams and Wash and Utah could be as well.

Got it.  Totally agree.

[Celtic Fan Forever]

We all need to pray that the clippers 2027 pick ends up outside of the top 5 with these new lottery rules. If they end up top 5 this year and next year we cannot get a top 5 pick in 2028.

This is incorrect.  We need to hope they do not win #1, because you cannot win consecutive #1 picks, but the top-5 pick they got in June was an Indiana pick, and the consecutive top-5 rule applies to the picks of the original team, and not their final destination.  So if LA gets top-5 in 2027, we would have no restrictions.  If they got top-5 again in 2028, their 2029 pick would have restrictions, even though we would have been the recipient of the top-5 pick on 2028, and not LA.

This year we want as many of Washington, Utah, Memphis, Chicago, and Indiana to again finish in the top-5 as possible, because any of those who do will be blocked from the top 5 in 2028, meaning the odds improve for landing a top 5 pick for all the other teams with lotto balls.

Ahh good catch, I forgot their pick was from Indiana this year. Appreciate the clarification.

[Jiri Welsch]

I have my eye on Deuce Tatum.

[Celtics2021]

I have my eye on Deuce Tatum.

The Celtics need to start planning to acquire some extra picks in the 2037 draft.