Trade idea: Scoot Henderson

[Celtics2021]

TLDR: Scoot to the Celtics makes sense for both teams.

To preface this idea, I think the Celtics have not totally closed up shop for the offseason.  Dillon Mitchell remains unsigned.  One would think he would be by now. Summer league is over.  The Celtics are enough under the tax to sign him to spot 15 if they want, but they also have two 2-way spots available and seem to prefer that route for 2nds.  Their most likely 2-way guy, John Tonje, just signed elsewhere, so it is not as if they needed to keep one open.

Anyway, I cannot figure out why Mitchell remains unsigned unless the Celtics are trying to keep some flexibility for a move.  The move that requires Mitchell to remain available to sign is a 2-for-1 deal that adds payroll to the Celtics, so that they end up at 13 roster spots and less than the two-year vet minimum ($2.45 million) under the tax, but more than the rookie minimum ($1.36 million).  In this instance, signing Mitchell to a rookie minimum would keep the team below the tax, and at 14 players.

Looking at the roster, the most likely traded candidate remains Sam Hauser.  The Celtics could trade him and bring back roughly $12.5 million while staying under the tax.  However, if they added either Garza or Scheierman to a deal, they could bring back roughly $13.9 million, and have room to sign Mitchell and stay at 14 players and under the tax.

It is a short list of players who make between $12.5 million and $13.9 million, and are eligible to be traded (because they are not rookie 1st round picks or free agency signings):

Risacher
Scoot Henderson
Lillard
Avdija
Stephen Adams
Dylan Harper (I can dream, but obviously not)
Donte DiVincenzo

Of that small list, Avdija and Harper are clearly unavailable, DiVincenzo is out for most or all of the year on an expiring, and Rishacher was just traded.  That leaves Lillard, Adams, and Scoot.

Lookig at the Blazers roster, they have 5 PGs, and Scoot is probably fourth on that list behind Morant, Jrue, and Lillard.  They also have 5 centers.  Meanwhile, they have 3 playable wings in a league where teams regularly play three wings at a time.  Accordingly, the following trade may make sense for both teams:

Blazers receive:
Hauser
Scheierman

Celtics receive:
Scoot Henderson

This gives the Blazers two more rotation wings.  It is not an awesome return for the Blazers on a former #3 pick, but it is comparable to the Risacher-Dort trade of last week, and arguably better given the respective contracts of Hauser and Dort.  Scoot has shown flashes of promise as a distributor and on defense, but he is not likely to be extended this summer by Portland, and are they really going to have a restricted free agency battle over their 4th-string PG?

For the Celtics, Scoot could become PG #3, and Pritchard could move to the starting lineup.  They would still have plenty of wing depth in Gonzalez, Walsh, and Harper Jr, and with Mitchell as an emergency option.  The Celtics could try to extend Scoot, and could go the low-$20 million range next summer to keep him in restricted free agency if they did not while staying under the 2nd apron (this would probably be enough to fight off most offer sheets).  It would be a high-upside (he was #3 just three seasons ago, if he stays healthy he could pop), moderate risk (the Celtics could have given up two 40% 3-point shooters on good contracts the next 2-3 seasons for an expensive 3rd string PG who flames out).

[Goldstar88]

I would love to get him, but there is no way the Blazers would trade Scoot for Baylor and Sam. Henderson was the 3rd pick in the draft a few years ago and he is only 22 years old. He played well in the playoffs averaging 15ppg with shooting splits of 48/46/75. Portland would immediately hang up the phone.

[Celtics2021]

I would love to get him, but there is no way the Blazers would trade Scoot for Baylor and Sam. Henderson was the 3rd pick in the draft a few years ago and he is only 22 years old. He played well in the playoffs averaging 15ppg with shooting splits of 48/46/75. Portland would immediately hang up the phone.

Dude is going to be fourth in the rotation.  All three PGs ahead of him are also signed through next season.  He shot nicely in the playoffs, but also had a sub-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, with barely over an assist per game.  I know you hate Scheierman and I do not know your opinion on Hauser, but it is not a crazy argument that they both outplayed Scoot last year and could again this year.    Meanwhile, Scoot could very well walk in the summer, leaving them with nothing to show for their #3 pick.

Of course, a deal probably will not happen, because virtually nothing ever does, but I do think Hauser and Baylor are much closer to fair value than you give them credit for.

[wiley]

Nice idea and great to learn about the financial side of things.  TP.

The needs line up...  at first, I would think they're trying to light a fire under their number three pick by giving him lots of competition, but adding Morant just takes it beyond such a concept....   it's weird at the moment...something has to give at some point.

The aura of Scoot being pick # 3, whether or not he's backed it up with play yet..might require that we add a pick..

[Goldstar88]

I would love to get him, but there is no way the Blazers would trade Scoot for Baylor and Sam. Henderson was the 3rd pick in the draft a few years ago and he is only 22 years old. He played well in the playoffs averaging 15ppg with shooting splits of 48/46/75. Portland would immediately hang up the phone.

Dude is going to be fourth in the rotation.  All three PGs ahead of him are also signed through next season.  He shot nicely in the playoffs, but also had a sub-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, with barely over an assist per game.  I know you hate Scheierman and I do not know your opinion on Hauser, but it is not a crazy argument that they both outplayed Scoot last year and could again this year.    Meanwhile, Scoot could very well walk in the summer, leaving them with nothing to show for their #3 pick.

Of course, a deal probably will not happen, because virtually nothing ever does, but I do think Hauser and Baylor are much closer to fair value than you give them credit for.

They really aren?t, though. Scoot averaged 14pts/4ast/3rebs on 42/35/84 shooting splits. He is 22 years old and will continue to improve. Sam is a finished product, a 3pt specialist. Decent role player. Baylor averaged 4ppg this past season and he is turning 26 in a few months. Limited upside. You are severely overvaluing these players.

Portland should consider moving Scoot after the Morant trade, but they certainly would be looking for a better return than that.