How far away is this potential team? (BOS/NOP)

[Roy H.]

Yes, Trey Murphy III has been talked about to death, but I'm curious how far we'd be if we made a trade like the following:

BOS trades:  Paul George, Jordan Walsh, whatever #1 pick(s) we get in 2028, lesser of 2031 #1s

BOS receives:  Murphy III, Dejounte Murray

It puts us about $1.55 million over the tax, which the team could get out of at the deadline if ownership continues to prioritize monetary savings.

Queta / Robinson / Garza / (Williams)
Tatum / Hauser / Cenac
Murphy / Hugo / (Mitchell)
White / Scheierman / Harper
Murray / Pritchard / Conley

Is that roster a contender?  How cooked is Murray? 

[Celtics2021]

I do not think it is any closer than our current team.  I was very into Murphy as a number 3 option next to Tatum and Brown, but I do not think he is any better than Paul George.

That said, I have laid money on our team winning the East next year, so I also think our current team is not that far away.  That may differ from the sentiment of the board, although it is more in line with the oddsmakers.

[slamtheking]

Yes, Trey Murphy III has been talked about to death, but I'm curious how far we'd be if we made a trade like the following:

BOS trades:  Paul George, Jordan Walsh, whatever #1 pick(s) we get in 2028, lesser of 2031 #1s

BOS receives:  Murphy III, Dejounte Murray

It puts us about $1.55 million over the tax, which the team could get out of at the deadline if ownership continues to prioritize monetary savings.

Queta / Robinson / Garza / (Williams)
Tatum / Hauser / Cenac
Murphy / Hugo / (Mitchell)
White / Scheierman / Harper
Murray / Pritchard / Conley

Is that roster a contender?  How cooked is Murray?

in terms of talent, marginally better.  Murray is pretty cooked and Murphy is better than PG in the sense he's healthier but not necessarily more talented if PG is healthy.

The loss of picks to get Murphy/Murray is where I think the damage to the team is done.

[Neurotic Guy]

I do not think it is any closer than our current team.  I was very into Murphy as a number 3 option next to Tatum and Brown, but I do not think he is any better than Paul George.

That said, I have laid money on our team winning the East next year, so I also think our current team is not that far away.  That may differ from the sentiment of the board, although it is more in line with the oddsmakers.

This has been stated numerous times before but this team on paper is better than the team that won 56 games last year.  Replacing JB are 100% JT and Paul George.  Replacing Vuc/Garza is Robinson/Garza.  The center rotation is solid and was thought to be the team's primary weakness a year ago.  And I don't think it's wishful thinking to suggest that HuBaWaHaHa will be better.   

That said, I like Murphy a lot and think he'll produce more than PG.  Murray I have no idea.

[Roy H.]

I do not think it is any closer than our current team.  I was very into Murphy as a number 3 option next to Tatum and Brown, but I do not think he is any better than Paul George.

Well, the best ability is availability, and Murphy has George beat hands down there.  And, Murphy is highly favorable in terms of his age and contract.

But, beyond that, he outproduced George, was more efficient in doing so, and some of the more common advanced stats (VORP, WS, BPM) favor Murphy by a fairly wide margin.  (I won't argue advanced stats, though, because I think they tend to be somewhere between marginally helpful and complete nonsense).

To me, it's a decent upgrade in 2027 (particularly if Murray returns to form at all), but a huge upgrade in 2029 going forward.

[Celtics2021]

I do not think it is any closer than our current team.  I was very into Murphy as a number 3 option next to Tatum and Brown, but I do not think he is any better than Paul George.

Well, the best ability is availability, and Murphy has George beat hands down there.  And, Murphy is highly favorable in terms of his age and contract.

But, beyond that, he outproduced George, was more efficient in doing so, and some of the more common advanced stats (VORP, WS, BPM) favor Murphy by a fairly wide margin.  (I won't argue advanced stats, though, because I think they tend to be somewhere between marginally helpful and complete nonsense).

To me, it's a decent upgrade in 2027 (particularly if Murray returns to form at all), but a huge upgrade in 2029 going forward.

George will play 60 games, which is more than Murphy has averaged over the past three seasons.  The availability gap will be minimal.

Murphy has a better contract, yes.  He is reasonably compensated for what he provides, while George is overpaid.  But if you are adding in a probably cooked Murray (look at how awful he was before the Achilles) such that Murphy and Murray make more than George, you are losing that value.

If Murray, Murphy, and picks were available, I would have taken that over the trade we got, but it likely was not (potentially because JB interfered).   But I would not think that trading the picks for Murphy is a good idea.

[Vermont Green]

I admit that I don't know Murphy's game all that well, but I am surprised to see comments like "he is no better than Paul George".  Murphy has certainly been more durable than George, but I guess I can see a scenario where Paul George is better than Murphy next season.  Of course I can also see a scenario where George only plays 40 games and misses the playoffs.

As to Murray, I have the same problem, I have no idea how good he will be.  He was a very good player prior to the injury, albeit does not shoot 3s all that well.  So I don't know.  Maybe it is better just to go with George and see what we have.  I have a feeling it is going to be better than a lot of people think, but hard to know.

[Roy H.]

Maybe it is better just to go with George and see what we have. 

I think the problem with the trade is that we know that, even best case scenario, George has a very limited shelf life.  If you look at the number of players that have scored even 16 ppg in their age 37 season (next year), it's very, very short.

There's no real scenario where we win a championship with Paul George, so he's essentially the deluxe version of Theo's Expiring Contract next year.  Time will tell if we can do anything with that, but best case, we're in another bridge year when we didn't need to be.