Celtics (2-1) vs Kings (1-2) Vegas SL Game #4 7/15/26

[Goldstar88]

I'm starting to think Brad nailed the Cenac pick. It's gonna be fun watching this guy develop.

I think so too. Has a ton of upside at only 19 years old. Cenac Jr played 3 less minutes than Williams and he has twice as many rebounds (12).

[slamtheking]

best game this group has played so far.  Hugo, Cenac, Williams all played solid

[satch]

Enjoyed watching SL Celtics-Was hoping they would make tournament-I am not going to miss the announcers useless babble and annoying in game interviews.   

[radiohead]

I'm starting to think Brad nailed the Cenac pick. It's gonna be fun watching this guy develop.

I think so too. Has a ton of upside at only 19 years old. Cenac Jr played 3 less minutes than Williams and he has twice as many rebounds (12).

The guy is playing with a chip on his shoulder. He said in an interview that he felt he shouldn?t have fallen to #27 and was eager to show the teams that passed on him that they made a mistake. At least the competitive spirit is there, and so far he?s showing it on the court. I hope he gets spot minutes even as a rookie just like Hugo did last season.

[SparzWizard]

Good to see Cenac dominating in the SL.

Hopefully, that can translate over into the NBA

[boscel33]

Hugo is a strong rebounder.

The starting lineup I think will need someone who can guard the other teams best perimeter player. JB did do that quite often and that?s not a burden we will want to put on Tatum, PG or White. I do not think Pritchard or Hauser can be that guy so that is where I expect it will come down to Walsh Hugo or Baylor.  Unsure who it will be but I think Walsh is probably at the bottom of that group although I do like him too.

I think Baylor is getting the nod at the 2.  I think they'll keep PP coming off the bench with Hugo.  One not about Hugo, before the 24-25 season started and early into that season, he was projected to be drafted in the teens, so I think over the past two years, Hugo and Cenac, we've had potential late lottery picks fall into our laps. 

[Donoghus]

I?m starting to get irrational about Cenac?s ceiling

[Who]

I?m starting to get irrational about Cenac?s ceiling

Why? What do you think his ceiling might be?

[Celtics2021]

I?m starting to get irrational about Cenac?s ceiling

Why? What do you think his ceiling might be?

GOAT, obviously.

[gift]

I?m starting to get irrational about Cenac?s ceiling

Why? What do you think his ceiling might be?

GOAT, obviously.

yeah but what's the irrational take?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I?m starting to get irrational about Cenac?s ceiling

Why? What do you think his ceiling might be?

I'll jump in even though you asked Donoghus. I want to hear others opinion as well.

He's in the same mold body-wise and defensive potential-wise as Mobley, Adebayo, or (going back) Ibaka. Offensively, I love the aggressiveness I've seen. Right now, the only projectable reliable scoring is as a shooter. I'd love to see him as a roller/dunker also. The midrange stuff is fine, but not something I'd want him to rely on. It was encouraging to see him put the ball on the floor and attack some centers multiple times in the summer league too. That scoring ability where he can do a bit of everything, but does not have one reliable skill is why he reminds me offensively of Evan Mobley. I also, think, body-wise, he's probably best as a 4, but able to slide up to the 5 for stretches each game (especially with Tatum at the 4), which is another thing that reminds me of Mobley.

All of these skills are projections right now, but its easy to see the path forward for them with his body, coachability, and how hard he plays.

For this reason, my ceiling projection is something like Evan Mobley. My above average projection is something like Jabari Smith Jr. My floor projection is Christian Wood.

[Who]

I?m starting to get irrational about Cenac?s ceiling

Why? What do you think his ceiling might be?

I'll jump in even though you asked Donoghus. I want to hear others opinion as well.

He's in the same mold body-wise and defensive potential-wise as Mobley, Adebayo, or (going back) Ibaka. Offensively, I love the aggressiveness I've seen. Right now, the only projectable reliable scoring is as a shooter. I'd love to see him as a roller/dunker also. The midrange stuff is fine, but not something I'd want him to rely on. It was encouraging to see him put the ball on the floor and attack some centers multiple times in the summer league too. That scoring ability where he can do a bit of everything, but does not have one reliable skill is why he reminds me offensively of Evan Mobley. I also, think, body-wise, he's probably best as a 4, but able to slide up to the 5 for stretches each game (especially with Tatum at the 4), which is another thing that reminds me of Mobley.

All of these skills are projections right now, but its easy to see the path forward for them with his body, coachability, and how hard he plays.

For this reason, my ceiling projection is something like Evan Mobley. My above average projection is something like Jabari Smith Jr. My floor projection is Christian Wood.

I like the Ibaka comp.

I am unsure about E Mobley / Bam because I do not know that Cenac is good enough as a ball-handler & passer. They are smart cerebral players. I unsure Cenac is that offensively.

Back to Ibaka. Good shooter. No shot-creation. No passing. No ball-handling. A limited offensive skill-set despite his shooting ability.

Cenac already looks beyond Ibaka as a ball-handler & passer but I am not sure Cenac is that good at them either. He looks below average in both relative to what a starting PF is expected to do in the NBA nowadays. More combo forwards & smaller forwards at PF who have more ball-handling & passing ability than PFs of Ibaka's prime. Cenac looks more in the lower end of ball-handling & passing relative to players at the PF position. 

I mentioned Aldridge in a different thread. Another guy that reminds me of Cenac albeit without the shot-creation of Aldridge. Aldridge had a quality go-to move with that turnaround jump-shot early in his career to lift his scoring from 12-14ppg to 17-20ppg. I do not see Cenac having that go-to move / shot creation. He looks more limited to being a finisher (whether around the rim or as a shooter - like Ibaka). The other thing that reminds me of Aldridge is the low quality of Cenac's ball-handling & passing. Especially young Aldridge. He had a quick trigger finger on shooting attempts especially from the midrange. That reminds me of Cenac. Sorta like he has blinkers on at times. He doesn't see what is happening around him. So he just looks at the rim and tries to get up a shot. Again, like a young Aldridge.

Anyway, back to Ibaka. I like that comp. That is along the lines of what I was trying to say about the Aldridge comp but without the shot creation / turnaround shot out of the post that elevated Aldridge from a role player offensively to a star player (shot creator) offensively.

[No Nickname]

I?m starting to get irrational about Cenac?s ceiling

Why? What do you think his ceiling might be?

I'll jump in even though you asked Donoghus. I want to hear others opinion as well.

He's in the same mold body-wise and defensive potential-wise as Mobley, Adebayo, or (going back) Ibaka. Offensively, I love the aggressiveness I've seen. Right now, the only projectable reliable scoring is as a shooter. I'd love to see him as a roller/dunker also. The midrange stuff is fine, but not something I'd want him to rely on. It was encouraging to see him put the ball on the floor and attack some centers multiple times in the summer league too. That scoring ability where he can do a bit of everything, but does not have one reliable skill is why he reminds me offensively of Evan Mobley. I also, think, body-wise, he's probably best as a 4, but able to slide up to the 5 for stretches each game (especially with Tatum at the 4), which is another thing that reminds me of Mobley.

All of these skills are projections right now, but its easy to see the path forward for them with his body, coachability, and how hard he plays.

For this reason, my ceiling projection is something like Evan Mobley. My above average projection is something like Jabari Smith Jr. My floor projection is Christian Wood.

It's so great to have a big that we're developing that we have high hopes for (sorry Amari).

Queta has panned out even as a 20-25 best center in the league, but we need even more from our bigs and Cenac will be fun to root for.

[Who]

Ibaka had an 8 year stretch from 2012-13 to 2019-20 where he averaged 14.1ppg 7.5rpg 1.9bpg. He shot 50.8% FG 36% 3PT 57.1% TS which was above average for that time period (TS+ 104).

Ibaka struggled to get beyond that 15ppg barrier because he never developed any shot creation. He had a limited post game. He was uncomfortable putting the ball on the floor and driving.

Cenac shows some more willingness to put the ball on the floor and drive although that will get harder in the NBA vs SL when he plays PF against more quality defenders with speed & quickness. Cenac looks more capable of using that ball-handling of his when he plays C and is matched up against slower players than when he is at forward playing against quicker guys. If Cenac can grow into a center, I think he become a much more well rounded offensive threat.

The other stat for Ibaka is that he averaged 1.0apg for that 8 year stretch in 30.3mpg. He also averaged 1.5 turnovers per game. So a bottom of the barrel assist numbers & a negative AST:TOV ratio.

Cenac has 3 assists in 67 minutes in SL. So 1.0apg in 23.3mpg in his 3 games. He also has 3 turnovers per game. So low assist numbers & a negative AST:TOV ratio. It was similar in college. 0.7apg in 24.8mpg and slight negative AST:TOV ratio at 0.7:0.9.

Those sort of assist numbers worry me about his upside as a PF in today's NBA. Today's PFs are really combo forwards & small forwards. They are much better ball-handlers & passers than PFs of the past. In comparison to them, Cenac looks a much more limited offensive threat.

That is why I like the Ibaka comp.

---------------------

There is also something about Cenac's shooting that concerns me. He seems more like a willing shot-taker than an actual good shooter. I also think he has a real risk of being below average as a shooter for a PF which would make him below average in shot creation, shooting, ball-handling, and passing.

This is why I am finding it hard to get too excited about a high upside here. The upside looks more like a role player to me. Again, why I like the Ibaka comp (he was an elite role player).