Shams: LAL acquires Walker Kessler

[Vermont Green]

LAL acquires Walker Kessler, we get Robinson.

Bleh

Brad is being passed by other GMs in the league.

Not really

Seriously.  Kessler is double the salary, cost two unprotected firsts and two unprotected swaps, and missed virtually all of last year.  Sure, it could work out better for them than us, but given the cost, it has a far higher chance of blowing up in their face.

I will make my point again.  Kessler is a career 54.5% FT%.  Robinson is 50.8%.  Kessler was 70% last season but only in 5 games.  Kessler has a career scoring average of 9.5 pts, Robinson 7.5 pts.

Now I admit that Kessler has more upside and does appear to have more offense than Robinson but I see Robinson as the better defender and rebounder.  Kessler probably will be a more valuable player over the next 3-4 seasons but I don't see the difference being as much as many seem to think.  There is nothing certain with Kessler.

[Donoghus]

Justin Termine
@TermineRadio
?
2h
Nice job by Ainge getting more from the Lakers for Walker Kessler than Nico Harrison got from the Lakers for Luka.

[Who]

Justin Termine
@TermineRadio
?
2h
Nice job by Ainge getting more from the Lakers for Walker Kessler than Nico Harrison got from the Lakers for Luka.

Ha! That is hilarious

[Phantom255x]

I have been begging them to trade for Kessler for years, but two first round picks is insane lol. 4/130M is not terrible but the trade is crazy.

[Atzar]

I think I like this one for both teams tbh.  Might lean towards it being an overpay for Kessler, but I do like the fit next to Doncic and Reaves. 

Where Utah is concerned, I question why you'd frame winning deals as a bad thing.  Utah just traded a guy they never appeared to want for two picks and another two swaps.  They're accumulating a stockpile of assets while they wait to see whether, in keeping with the Monopoly metaphor, Peterson or Bailey turn into Park Place or Boardwalk.  It's not time to worry about fit yet.  Give it another year or two.

[Donoghus]

Keith Smith
@KeithSmithNBA
The real win of the Lakers using cap space this summer:

We finally get to remove seven old cap holds when they renounce the players for space! This list includes:

Carmelo Anthony
Avery Bradley
Jared Dudley
Wayne Ellington
Dwight Howard
Markieff Morris
Dion Waiters

[Who]

Keith Smith
@KeithSmithNBA
The real win of the Lakers using cap space this summer:

We finally get to remove seven old cap holds when they renounce the players for space! This list includes:

Carmelo Anthony
Avery Bradley
Jared Dudley
Wayne Ellington
Dwight Howard
Markieff Morris
Dion Waiters

Those things should expire automatically after 12 months.

It is ridiculous when they take someone out of retirement. Not to play. Just to do a medical and be part of the trade due to cap rules.

[Who]

Actually Jake LaRavis is a lot like Hugo Gonzales.

LaRavia around 6-7 physically powerful forward. A possession creator and defender like Hugo. A good passer as well. LaRavia has had 1 good year shooting the ball and 3 mediocre years.

They have a lot in common. Skill-wise and in terms of physical talent.

LaRavia's rebounding numbers weren't as good as I remembered when I looked up his stats.

Hugo has a good advantage there. Hugo was at 3.3rpg in 14.6mpg (roughly 3 in 15min) which is 8.2reb per 36min. LaRavia's rebounding numbers were closer to average for SF at 6reb per 36 for his 4yr career are are pretty steady around that 6reb per 36 range.

So that is a large advantage for Hugo. We will have to wait and see how Hugo can maintain those rebounding rates as he plays more minutes ... but it looks like it will be an advantage for Hugo. Just how big of an advantage isn't clear yet until he gets more playing time.

LaRavia was a good possession creator but it is mostly out of creating turnovers whereas Hugo is a strong possession creator both from creating turnovers + grabbing rebounds. So Hugo creates more net possessions than LaRavia.

LaRavia has better passing numbers but I think that will come in time with Hugo. I think Hugo is a good passer. He just can't shoot so he nervous on the ball. And as a rookie, is rushing things at times. He makes nice reads at other times. So I expect that will even out in time and they will be comparable here too.

--------------

Another interesting point of comparison was their scoring. Both guys had floor level low scoring rates as rookies. LaRavia at 9.1pts per 36min and Hugo at 9.6pts per 36min. That is among the lowest rates you will find in the league. However, LaRavia took a much larger proportion of 3s whereas Hugo got to the basket for more easy layups / dunks. High percentage offense. Also a signal of athletic superiority. This gave Hugo a higher FG%. The gap was less when you go to TS% but Hugo at 56% had the advantage over LaRavia for LaRavia's first 2 years (53%, 54%). LaRavia was at 57% last season in a bad shooting year. His 3rd year was 59% when he had his 1 good 3pt shooting season.

LaRavia is up to 12.9pts per 36min in the 3years since his rookie season which is regular low scoring volume. 9pts per 36 is insanely low - for both guys as rookies. As Hugo's shot improves, he should see a similar bump (at a minimum).

-------------

Another interesting thing about their rebounding rates was that they were almost equal in offensive rebounds. The difference was in defensive rebounding. Normally young players do better in offensive rebounding (when they are more athletic) and worse in defensive rebounding (bad fundamentals, forget to box out, concede too many boards to opponents). Hugo being younger (19 vs 21 in rookie years, 19 vs 24 in this past season) I expected his advantage to be there.

Which leads to another interesting detail. Hugo despite having these large number of defensive rebounds did not seem to improve team defensive rebounding. The team actually rebounded better when he was off the floor. Both in on/off numbers and in adjusted plus minus rebounding numbers.

Now that might be because of whole variety of reasons for on/off rebounding numbers depending on who is on the floor with him. Playing with Garza vs Queta. Garza does not rebound well defensively which could both boost Hugo's individual rebounding numbers (Chris Bosh in Toronto alongside Bargnani) and hurt overall team defensive rebounding rates. It looks like Hugo played roughly the same amount of minutes with both Garza (375min) and Queta (330min).

Hugo's adjusted plus / minus rebounding numbers are more along the lines you would expect. Young players do well in offensive rebounding (athleticism, energy) and struggle in defensively rebounding (boxing out, fundamentals). Which is what Hugo's numbers say.

--------------

Anyway, I found those 2 to be an interesting comparison. LaRavia more on the lower end of expectations for Hugo long term.

It did look like LaRavia was establishing himself as one of the better backup PF/SFs in the league 12 months ago but the regression in his 3pt shooting has brought him back down to earth.

[Bobshot]

Justin Termine
@TermineRadio
?
2h
Nice job by Ainge getting more from the Lakers for Walker Kessler than Nico Harrison got from the Lakers for Luka.

Ha! That is hilarious

That's all they can do after Lebron?  I guess they'll just have to make Kessler a star.

[BitterJim]

So I presume this means Utah will start Nurkic now.

G: K George
G: Darryn Peterson
F: Markkanen
F: Jaren Jackson
C: Nurkic

Then they have Filipowski off the bench. Nurk will probably only play 20-25mpg. They can play Markkanen (PF) and JJJ (C) together for a good chunk of minutes. That will be their closing combination. Filipowski to get the remaining big man minutes.

If it was me, I would start and finish with Markkanen at PF, JJJ at C, and play one of the young wings or get a vet wing.  CLE played Markkanen at SF too, but this make no sense to me.  It seems that PF is his natural position.

Both JJJ and Markkanen are PFs.

I like JJJ to spend his time 50-50 between PF and C positions. I do not like him as a full time center. His rebounding is too bad. He also does worse as a sole defensive anchor. He is much more comfortable playing alongside a fellow big man. It allows him to play riskier defense without being punished as much.

All true but doesn't that make you wonder why they let Kessler go?  Isn't he theoretically perfect to play alongside JJJ?  In my view, either Markkanen or JJJ can play center, they are both more natural PFs but these days the distinction is less important.  Maybe they still trade Markkanen and play with JJJ and Filipowski.

I would still be open to Markkanen and Keyonte George for Brown.

Honestly, I think Ainge is just so obsessed with getting the best deal always.  He did not like Kessler at the price Kessler was getting from other teams that he took the picks and moved on.  I think he knows how to collect assets but has lost sight how to build a cohesive team.  All the individual moves are correct, but taken together they do not fit.

Maybe, but I don't see any of his deals in Utah as indicative of that. At no point have they been a move or two away from contending.

His last years in Boston you could certainly argue that he was holding his chips too long looking for a perfect move that was never gonna come, but in hindsight none of the stars that became available would have been worth the cost. He got a lot of flack for keeping Brown and Tatum instead of going all in in on the older core of Horford/Hayward/Kyrie, but that turned out to be the right love. Id view his decision to trade away Gobert/Mitchell instead of building around them the same way. Who knows, maybe Ainge hides his time too long and then the Jazz kick him to the curb and promote Hardy to PBO, where he makes some big splashes building around their young stars...